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Longhorn mentioned in nearly every Apple Mac OS X Tiger review to assuage Windows masses
Sunday, May 01, 2005 - 11:01 PM EST

By SteveJack

Mac users may have noticed that almost every article regarding Apple's Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger also covers Microsoft's Windows Longhorn which isn't due to be released until "late 2006." I've certainly noticed. That got me to asking my usual question, "Why?" I think it's pretty clear. Nearly every segment of the PC food chain needs Longhorn to succeed, as Charles Cooper pointed out in a recent article for CNET News.com. Because of the importance of Windows to the economy, Microsoft's dominance needs to be protected. Box assemblers like Dell, antivirus outfits like Symantec, institutional Microsoft shareholders, you name it — a lot of companies and people need the Wintel hegemony to continue unchallenged.

So, while the tech media feels it has to cover Apple's Mac OS X Tiger release, many outlets also feel the burning need to inject the promise of Longhorn into these articles. One has to wonder, when Longhorn is finally released, will reviews of Microsoft's operating system include comparisons and references to what Apple has planned a year-and-a-half out? I highly doubt it. Windows Longhorn will, in some articles, be compared to whatever Apple's OS is available at the time or, frequently, reviewed all by itself without any mention of Apple's Mac OS X.

(Off on a tangent I go! I get annoyed by how Mac OS X reviews almost always contain references, criticisms, or praises about how well it works with Windows and/or Windows files. Guess what? I don't give a sheet how well I work with Windows and I won't even after I start reading critiques of Windows based upon how it works with Macs. I don't measure the success of my Mac based on how well it deals with lesser platforms, especially one that works so hard to be a knock off of my own. How much of my computing life do I have to devote to making sure the stuff I do quickly and effortlessly on my Mac can work on computers purchased by people who weren't smart enough to buy a Mac? Yeah, yeah, I realize Windows is the majority, most of us are stuck having to work with Windows, it's good for everyone to know that Microsoft Office runs on a Mac and their files will be compatible, blah, blah, blah... stick an extension on it, will ya? Back to the article at hand.)

The reason for Longhorn being injected into Mac OS X Tiger articles is obvious. Right now, Windows users who are reading about Mac OS X Tiger have a very unpleasant feeling. It's painfully apparent that the personal computers they are using, even with the latest hardware and Windows XP SP2, are far behind Apple's Mac platform. To protect against people switching en masse from Windows to Macintosh, people need to be told repeatedly of the promise of Longhorn, even if it's vaporous, continually shedding features, and quite a long way away. "Sit tight, Longhorn's coming, it'll be okay," many of these "Mac OS X Tiger" articles seem to implore. Some articles even speculate on Apple releasing Mac OS X for x86 PC hardware. They do that to keep people from ditching their PCs for Macs, too.

The problem for the Wintel-centric media is that Longhorn is now so stripped down that even diehard Windows fans are calling it "Windows XP SP3," "a train wreck," and worse. I really don't know how this is going to be dealt with by the Wintel protectors. I think that, despite the best efforts of many, Apple stands to gain Mac users and Microsoft will lose Windows users to the Mac OS X platform. Just how many users will shift is the only real question. The gulf, previously seen only by Mac OS X users who've used Windows XP, is now just too obvious and wide between the two platforms. Even non-Mac users are now seeing the chasm between Windows XP and Mac OS X Tiger.

So, when you read Mac OS X Tiger reviews and articles and wonder why Microsoft's non-shipping, year-and-a-half away operating system is constantly being mentioned, just keep in mind that they're doing so in order to minimize the unpleasantness their Windows-only readers are feeling. I don't think it's going to work very well this time. And that's a very good thing for Apple in the long run; even if Apple themselves continue doing very little to specifically promote Tiger.

SteveJack is a long-time Macintosh user, web designer, multimedia producer and a regular contributor to the MacDailyNews Opinion section.

Related MacDailyNews articles:
Tech pundit Enderle: Apple's Mac OS X Tiger's main features 'borrow heavily from Longhorn' - May 02, 2005
Microsoft trumpets Longhorn to distract everyone from Apple's release of OS X 10.4 Tiger - May 02, 2005
Mac fans line up for new operating system as passberby asks 'what is a tiger?' - April 29, 2005
Forrester analysts: Apple should advertise Mac OS X Tiger on television and in movie theaters - April 29, 2005
Why doesn't Apple advertise Mac OS X on TV? - April 12, 2005
PC World review gives Apple's Mac OS X Tiger 4.5 stars out of 5 - April 30, 2005
Ars Technica: Mac OS X Tiger 'at least twice as significant as any single past update' - April 28, 2005
CNET: 'If you're tired of Microsoft's promises, Mac OS X Tiger may be your best incentive to switch' - April 28, 2005
BusinessWeek: 'Tiger bolsters Mac OS X's edge as the best personal-computer operating system around' - April 28, 2005
Associated Press: Mac OS X Tiger 'provides another excellent incentive to switch from Windows' - April 28, 2005
Mossberg: Apple's Tiger 'the best, most advanced personal computer operating system on the market' - April 28, 2005
InformationWeek columnist: Apple's Mac OS X Tiger 'a compelling upgrade' - April 28, 2005
NY Times: Apple's Mac OS X Tiger is the most secure, stable and satisfying OS on earth - April 28, 2005
Wired News: Apple's Mac OS X Tiger 'full of welcome surprises' - April 27, 2005
Windows is weak, Longhorn will be cosmetic upgrade; Apple can deliver killer blow to Microsoft - April 27, 2005
Thurrott: 'Longhorn is in complete disarray and in danger of collapsing under its own weight' - April 27, 2005
Thurrott: Longhorn 'has the makings of a train wreck' - April 26, 2005
Thurrott: Longhorn demos 'unimpressive, fall short of graphical excellence found today in Mac OS X' - April 26, 2005
Microsoft employees leaving due to (and blogging about) malaise smothering company - April 25, 2005
eWEEK Editor Coursey: Longhorn so far 'looks shockingly like a Macintosh' - April 25, 2005
Due in late 2006, many of Windows Longhorn's features have been in Mac OS X since 2001 - April 25, 2005
Apple's Tiger debuts Friday while Microsoft's Longhorn is burdened with one delay after another - April 25, 2005
Nearly every segment of the PC food chain needs Longhorn to succeed - April 22, 2005
Apple CEO Steve Jobs on Microsoft's Longhorn: 'They are shamelessly copying us' - April 21, 2005
Apple shows off Mac OS Tiger in Microsoft's backyard while Microsoft previews Windows XP ad push - April 19, 2005
Apple's Mac OS X reality vs. Microsoft's Longhorn fantasy - April 19, 2005
Microsoft's Windows Longhorn will bear more than just a passing resemblance to Apple's Mac OS X - April 15, 2005
Analyst: 'Microsoft's Longhorn is going to have hard time upstaging Apple's Mac OS X Tiger' - April 13, 2005
Analyst: Apple in 'position to exploit Microsoft missteps, claim leadership' with Mac OS X Tiger - April 13, 2005
Apple's Schiller: Mac OS X Tiger 'has created even more distance between us and Microsoft' - April 13, 2005
Will Mac OS X Tiger add fuel to Apple's recent momentum in the computer business? - April 13, 2005
Analyst: Tiger proves 'Apple is light years ahead of Microsoft in developing PC operating systems' - April 12, 2005
Analysts: Apple's new Tiger operating system could really impact Mac sales - April 12, 2005
Apple's Mac OS X 'Tiger' vs. Microsoft's Windows 'Longhorn' - March 31, 2005
Microsoft's Longhorn fantasy vs. Apple's Mac OS X reality - September 14, 2004
Is Microsoft's stripped-down 'Longhorn' worth waiting for? - September 10, 2004
Silicon Valley: Apple CEO Steve Jobs previews 'Longhorn' - June 29, 2004
PC Magazine: Microsoft 'Longhorn' preview shows 'an Apple look' - May 06, 2004
Microsoft concerned that Longhorn's look and feel will be copied if revealed too soon - August 25, 2003
Windows 'Longhorn' to add translucent windows that ripple and shrink by 2005 - May 19, 2003

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May 01, 05 - 11:34 pm Comment from: hello

yeah, true in a way.
but you also have to see that windows controls somewhere around 90% of the market, so when a pc news outlet reviews mac OSX, well, they need something to compare it to, to make sure people understand what osX is. can't compare it to XP, coz it's too far behind. longhorn still won't match it, but it's getting closer. So if you want your PC audience to understand what Apple has done, you have to compare it with longhorn.
and also, guess what??
FIRST POST

May 02, 05 - 12:12 am Comment from: uhrgenau

When will we see the Mac/Windows tipping point and how will we know it when it arrives? Will it be driven by disillusionment with Microsoft or the excitement of experiencing OS X? I think it's happening already and the vested interests are fighting a rearguard action.

May 02, 05 - 12:14 am Comment from: Getting a Mac

No, Longhorn will still be amazing. I'm very much looking forward to it, as well as OS X 10.5, whenever that comes out.

May 02, 05 - 12:28 am Comment from: Lars

If we assume that the current OS X +0.1 upgrade cycle is 18 month then Mac OS X 10.5 will arrive at the same time as Longwait..

May 02, 05 - 01:13 am Comment from: Gsonic

This article is ridiculous.

I haven't heard a single Windows user (and I know a LOT) talking about Mac os X Tiger simply because Windows users are fine with their system.

*** let me make it clear: Windows users are not affected in any way by the release of OS X Tiger. ***

--> The reason why Longhorn is being delayed and won't be released until 2006 is because Microsoft perfectly knows its users are not currently in need of a new system and therefore releasing a new OS would just be difficult to sell and create more compability issues. <--

I don't understand how releasing a new OS could be a positive sign other than in an objective to support more advanced hardware like 64-bit processors. It just means the current OS isn't good enough yet, which isn't the case with Windows, as long as you have basic computer knoweldge in order to protect yourself from viruses & spyware.

-----
The reality is that Apple users are happy with their macs and Windows users are happy with their WindowsXP.
Both OS serve different functions:

Macs are best for very-user-friendly, basic home usage, like email, web, pictures, dvds, music.

Windows is more oriented towards the gaming public, as much more games are released for it of course, but more specifically, your computer is designed so you can easily change & upgrade its parts. You can easilly change your video card, processor, ram, etc on a windows simply because it does not come in a "standard" hardware package.

Today's Mac & Windows users have different needs. That is why Mac users will not switch to Windows and Windows users feel no intent to switch to Macs. If you're thinking about Windows security problems, let me tell you: Windows always had security problems. They're not increasing, they have always been very high, but we're used to it and we deal with it!

-peace
G-sonic

PS: I will read your answers. Feel free to post them.

May 02, 05 - 02:04 am Comment from: good call

I was thinking along similar lines..I don't nead a new OS, Win2K is stable and all my programs run on it, what more do I need?

May 02, 05 - 02:33 am Comment from: neomonkey

as long as you have basic computer knoweldge in order to protect yourself from viruses & spyware

That's basic computer knowledge, so basic that maybe 15% of Windows users have it? You really want to protect yourself 100% without the need for this so-called "basic computer knowledge"? Get a Mac! Stupid Windows apologists make me ill, their "arguments" are so retarded to anyone with an IQ above room temperature.

May 02, 05 - 02:34 am Comment from: g

MS is giving reviewers a peak at longhorn build 5048 this week. I think the longhorn spin is less the reviewers and more microsoft.

May 02, 05 - 02:40 am Comment from: g

By the way -- I've updated my video card, processor, and ram on my macs. You have less options than you do with a PC, but they are not soldered in place.

May 02, 05 - 02:43 am Comment from: daddy g

Win2K is stable and all my programs run on it, what more do I need?

A clue? You'd have to be a real moron to buy programs that didn't run on your OS. Don't know about stable, but the whole Windows approach is so idiotic that W2K cost me a well paying job.

May 02, 05 - 02:45 am Comment from: Tangent

Gsonic ..As with most Windows users who comment on the Mac, you obviously have never used one.

May 02, 05 - 03:38 am Comment from: neomonkey

For a truly humorous article on Longwait, check this out here

Of course, I can't like everything can I? Well, no, Longhorn does have it's short comings, however Longhorn does have the advantage that, it truly shouldn't be judged in a pre-beta stage. The text in some the icons is a bit jagged, and unfortunately DCE, the Desktop Composition Engine, couldn't be started on my hardware, so I couldn't experience all the visual effects expected in Longhorn final.

Also, there are very small things which could tend to annoy you. Occasionally an icon looks like it's been stretched too big just minor glitches which are normal in a pre-beta enviornment. However, having used Longhorn for a few days now, I have to admit that Apple needs to be worried. Longhorn doesn't even have a name yet, but it's by far the most promising thing to come out of Redmond in quite a while. With the release of build 5048 the bar has been raised, and so have my expectations of Beta 1 and beyond of this remarkable Operating System


You can't make up stuff like this. If this is representative of their supporters in the paid press, Microsoft is in deep trouble. But we already knew that...

May 02, 05 - 03:50 am Comment from: gedboy

Gsonic has got to be a Mac user amusing himself by putting a deliberately stupid post for his pals to tear apart.

I was under the impression that I could do almost all the things he claims to be able to do on my 1.8 DP G5. I haven't looked at the processor cos I don't think I need to change it and, as usual, the new OS seems to have made things snappier again.

I have just started as a substitute teacher in Glasgow and have had to work on PCs for the first time in five years. I have never seen a platform so mutually loathed by its users, but then they aren't asked for their opinions when the hardware and software is bought.

And why do Wintel fanboys continually obsess about games when I would assume buying a dedicated games box is smarter? I might as well complain that a Ferrari isn't very good because it can't pull a plough very well.

May 02, 05 - 04:41 am Comment from: Fred

I know more about longhorn then I ever wanted to know just trying to find out about tiger.

May 02, 05 - 04:49 am Comment from: retro cat

Great article. Very insightful.

May 02, 05 - 05:12 am Comment from: Wingsy

Gsonic is one of the main reasons that Windows is where it is today (in market share). It's "good enough". And since the vast majority of Windows users don't know what they don't know (i.e., Tiger), then how can they lust for a Mac? Steve could go a long way in fixing this if he would just do a little advertising on my TV.

Gsonic: Longhorn is NOT being delayed because MS thinks it's too early for an update. Their 1st targeted release date was 2004, remember? And your comment that "Windows users are not affected in any way by the release of OS X Tiger" is not true either. My daughter's friends who come over and see her G5 iMac running Panther ARE affected by it. Seriously, they sit in awe at her screen and what she can do with it. Likewise with a friend who is a VP at a local pager company here...he brought in a 20" iMac to work and set it on his desk, in an all Windows shop. (Talk about a chic-magnet.) The ONLY person who hasn't lusted over his screen is the IT guy. No wonder at that.

May 02, 05 - 05:33 am Comment from: MrMe118

Gsonic, you wrote that PC users were happy with their environment because it was well suited to play games but in actuality most of the people who use windows don't care wether or not it can play games. The only reason I think there is so much emphasis on gaming in these discussions is that the people arguing are often geeks and this can lead to an over emphasis on very geeky issues. most of the computer market does not care wether you can play Fable or if the processor is user serviceable.
A new OS is a positive sign because it means that the company creating it is innovating not stagnating.

May 02, 05 - 05:36 am Comment from: Alex K.

The whole "basic computer knowledge" to protect yourself from viruses, spyware, and malware is a basic knowledge that for some reason about 10% of us has. My cousins have a Dell PC and their ISP has a really bad firewall and my aunt stays up all night trying to fix it sometimes.

Not only that, but antivirus protection isn't free. People are paying $20 a year just to keep their computers protected.

Not to mention how much RAM and CPU usage these programs use because of how they have to check everything you download and everything you do and make sure it's not harmful.

And to say that everyone is happy with their OS choice is not true. I know so many people who just hate computers and just have one because they are necessary in the world today. Windows users DON'T KNOW there's a better option out there.

As for Longhorn, for the amount of features it has and productivity improvements (almost none) it's weighing in pretty heavily at 4 Gigs and Microsoft expects you to have the latest processors (3500+ or more) and 2 Gigs of RAM just for the darn thing to run decently.

May 02, 05 - 09:04 am Comment from: longtooth

Longhorn will be released around Christmas 2006--maybe. Think about that ... that's almost 2 years. That's a long, LONG, time in the tech world. It'll be a different world by then. Longhorn will be dated before it's even released.

May 02, 05 - 09:08 am Comment from: Woody

I loved the line that said "Nearly every segment of the PC food chain needs Longhorn to succeed... (including)... antivirus outfits like Symantec".

Gimme a break. It is the same as suggesting that the world needs people like Saddam, Osama and Kim Jong Il just to keep the army occupied. Or that we need cockroaches in order to keep exterminators in business.

May 02, 05 - 09:10 am Comment from: Felix

<Macs are best for very-user-friendly, basic home usage, like email, web, pictures, dvds, music.>

They also happen to be good for graphics, media development, and video editing. Last I checked, these are a bit beyond "basic home usage."

If I want to play games, I'll have a Playstation 2, become some people don't like sitting at their desks for "fun."

May 02, 05 - 09:20 am Comment from: mike

I was thinking along similar lines..I don't nead a new OS, Win2K is stable and all my programs run on it, what more do I need?

----

Ha! Well, MS is mighty annoyed, sir, they want your money...5 years since you paid MS?! For shame!!!

May 02, 05 - 09:20 am Comment from: camus

"almost always contain references, criticisms, or praises about how well it works with Windows and/or Windows files"

- This is very important. How many people do you think would be using Macs if they had to convert all their music files, photos, and documents to a different format just so that they could use it on their PCs? What if you couldn't network a Mac to a Windows server or to other Windows PCs? Yeah sure, you could still be productive on your Mac, but a lot of people would find it's too much work when most of the world is using Windows. There would definitely not be as many switchers if none of their files would work once they tried to transfer them to their Mac.

"The reason for Longhorn being injected into Mac OS X Tiger articles is obvious. Right now, Windows users who are reading about Mac OS X Tiger have a very unpleasant feeling. It's painfully apparent that the personal computers they are using...are far behind Apple's Mac platform. To protect against people switching en masse from Windows to Macintosh, people need to be told repeatedly of the promise of Longhorn"

- I'm sorry but I just don't buy that. If there is some conspiracy that is going on to protect the Windows crowd, why does Steve Jobs and Apple ads reference Longhorn so many times? If there is some conspiracy, then Jobs must be in on it too.

You don't need to make up wild theories to try to explain Mac's small marketshare. We all know which OS is better, just be happy with that.

May 02, 05 - 09:25 am Comment from: Dave H

I like the fact that every article mentios Longhorn being so far away. It reminds those Windows users who know Mac users how far behind their computers are getting. Just remember, it only takes a small percentage of Windows users to move over and Apple doubles its Mac sales.

May 02, 05 - 09:31 am Comment from: loki

Alex K. made me think of an interesting point...
How much money do you think is spent annually on power used by processors that would otherwise be idle but are instead either fighting viruses/spyware or doing their bidding as an infected spreader?
Let the world have it's SP3... I'm not too certain how capable our economy would be were a paradigm shift to occur within the next 18 months.
The grass is greener on our side of the fence because the steer has been put out to graze...

May 02, 05 - 09:57 am Comment from: Newmanstein

Gsonic, either you are stupid, ignorant, or you have never spent any real time with a Mac. Go download a virus and shut up the nonsense!

May 02, 05 - 09:58 am Comment from: John

XP SP3 is definitely what Longhorn is turning into. I don't think it's so bad that they mention Longhorn in every article to keep reminding the PC users that you have to wait at least a year and a half before you will see anything new. And as Microsoft keeps cutting what will be new it looks even worse for them. Keep drilling it into people that what your waiting for isn't going to be any better than what you have now and I think more people will switch.

May 02, 05 - 10:03 am Comment from: Sally

Why does every Tiger article reference Longhorn? Well, duh! Marketing, people! People who already own Macs know they're better. The 90% of the computing world who are still saddled with their Windows machines need something to have reference to so they can relate to the article. It wouldn't do any good to compare to any current Windows iteration, they all suck and everyone knows it. People would say "yeah, but the next one will be better...". Uh huh. When it shows up 18 months from now, and no it won't be better and even MS knows that. You have to mention it to answer the question "Why is your product better than the product I already have?"

And as for Windows being fine as long as you have "basic computer knowledge" - bah! My poor mother is on a first-name basis with The Geek Squad (who are fantastic, by the way) trying to keep her computer functioning, even WITH Norton SystemWorks and Firewall. There is an entire security and knowledge-base industry out there dependent entirely on Windows flaws. You don't need basic computer knowledge, you need 6 extra hours a day to read newsletters, security updates, software updates & tweaks just to say a step behind! Why are AOL, Earthlink, and others in that market hanging so much of their value to users on protection, and that THEY DO IT FOR YOU if the knowledge needed was "basic"?

Basic my arse. Oh, wait, I really meant basic my Mac!

May 02, 05 - 10:07 am Comment from: Chris

Today Rob Enderle is now basically claiming that Apple ripped off spotlight, widgets, and the UI from Longhorn

HE goes into 64bitness but fails to mention much (or anything) about OSX 64 bitness...

Speaking of trolls......

May 02, 05 - 10:12 am Comment from: nyantacrusher

This is all a moot point....Linux is gonna EAT microsnorf!

May 02, 05 - 10:16 am Comment from: better kept unknown...

Woody, perhaps you might revisit what you wrote... the trans-national military/industrial/complex is a hungry beast. Most Governments 'need' ememies to justify themselves.
MW. 'while' ...While the lobster enjoys the warm water, before long it gets ... you know the rest.

May 02, 05 - 10:39 am Comment from: drastromac

Ridiculous article and observation about Microsoft... Virtually every article/review I've seen that comments about Longhorn doesn't assuage the masses, but points out that it's been delayed and is, at least, a year and half away! And emphasizes the Tiger is here NOW!

It's far more reasonable to make a case that the reviews are pitching switching and making the case for Apple.

But then I suppose I just fell for this troll of an article.

As to the posters who said they're happy with Windows, what more do they need?... the first issue is what less they need... fewer viruses, spyware, etc. and to stop feeding the Microsoft machine. Plus, it's time to enjoy the most aesthically pleasing combination of hardware/software on the planet.

May 02, 05 - 10:51 am Comment from: Andrew

"Macs are best for very-user-friendly, basic home usage, like email, web, pictures, dvds, music."

This is true. But they're also spectacular for business. I should know. I've got 100 macs networked running my high end construction business and use the Macs in so many business ways it makes your head spin. This Macs aren't good for business is a complete sham! I'm totally sick of hearing it.

May 02, 05 - 10:53 am Comment from: Chris

The only thing that should be compared in these articles is what is shipping now, Windows XP period. Not Schlongwait. Who knows if Bonghorn will ever be completed.

May 02, 05 - 11:50 am Comment from: neomonkey

Woody wrote: Gimme a break. It is the same as suggesting that the world needs people like Saddam, Osama and Kim Jong Il just to keep the army occupied. Or that we need cockroaches in order to keep exterminators in business.

And the "War On Non-Prescription Drugs" is needed to keep the DEA in business, not to mention all the confiscated money and drugs that enrich local and state police entities. All these things are true. The US hawks (Dick Cheney was one) provoked the Soviets during the cold war to ensure big orders of new weapons systems, enough to destroy all life on earth 10 times over. Humans suck, okay?

Virtually every business has to have at least one PC running Windows for shipping. Neither FedEx nor UPS has software for Macs. If we all complain to these companies, perhaps some positive change will ensue, and businesses can actually be PC-free.

May 02, 05 - 12:19 pm Comment from: walter

Tiger killed, multilated and fed on Longhorn! Moo.

May 02, 05 - 03:24 pm Comment from: erk

most of the reason they are postponing longwait (other than the fact that thier product blows) is that they are still waiting for business to upgrade to XP, MANY MANY businesses have not moved from win2k yet (hell we JUST got it last week and I work for the US govt, and we loooove to waste money)

once they force everyone to make that XP purchase, then they will start focusing on getting longwait out

they own the world, and they can do what they want to do on their own time


sad ain't it?


loosing a few million users to the Tiger is no big deal to them at all

ok, now I am depressed

May 02, 05 - 04:09 pm Comment from: -hh

For Gsonic

who said:
"I haven't heard a single Windows user (and I know a LOT) talking about Mac os X Tiger simply because Windows users are fine with their system."

Why then, its clearly time to rearrange your cotton. Take it out of your ears and stick it into your mouth.

The reality is that Microsoft now feels that its necessary to run TV ads again, extolling XP. I wonder why?

YMMV, it doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to figure out why: they've realized that they're in a world of hurt, becuase the tide is turning against them. Granted, it might be just "mindshare", or it might be actual substance...but the Marketplace will ultimately decide.

Consider the recent report that stated that Mac sales and market share were up 45% in 2004, to a 2.4% market share.

Consider that today, Merrill Lynch projected that Apple may have a 4% market share by the end of 2005, which would infers a 65% growth rate.

Splitting these growth rates and rounding off to an even number, that infers around a 50% growth rate outyears. YMMV, but this is probably a pretty reasonable guess for for 2006, which Longhorn might cause the slide to end...this takes Apple's Market Share up to 6%.

However, this is where the crystal ball gets slippery. If Longhorn turns out to be the equivalent of OS 10.1, then its not unreasonable to say that Apple has a darn good chance to continue to gain marketshare through mindshare leveraging until Microsoft catches up to where OS 10.4 right now.

Assuming 1 year per OS +.1 to get to 10.4 would be 3 years. Assuming Apple moves roughly half as fast, they'll be at OS 10.5, so MS still has to play aggressive catch-up...assume parity at OS 10.6 in five years.

Continuing to assume the 50% rate would infer market shares of 9%, 14%, 20%, then 30% and 45%. Given that there's a Linux wedge in here too, it potentially means that Apple could hit full marketplace parity with Windows in by the end of CY 2011.

Thus, Microsoft is trying to blunt that potential threat today with "XP is wonderful" TV ads...even if we don't see the potential, they certainly do.

-hh

May 02, 05 - 04:36 pm Comment from: deepkid

"Guess what? I don't give a sheet how well I work with Windows and I won't even after I start reading critiques of Windows based upon how it works with Macs."

AMEN STEVEJACK. But you know what? The mac media and mac fans are just as guilty of stalking M$. Just take a peek at the headlines listings and note the M$ Obsession.

I'm sick of it! Granted that it's a good idea to keep an eye on them from afar, I go to mac sites to read news about APPLE, not what musical key Bill Gates farted in today.

Just let it go already.

May 02, 05 - 04:53 pm Comment from: deepkid

This should have read "Just take a peek at the headlines listings __ AT MACSURFER.COM __ and note the M$ Obsession."

May 03, 05 - 04:33 am Comment from: Joe

Longhorn will be the biggest upgrade since windows95... People need to get rid of the sterotype of windows in the win9x/me days. Windows 2k/XP are near perfect. Any noob can protect themself from viruses.

From what i've seen Mac OSX Tiger is nothing more than a few tools slapped together with maybe a few patches, hell i could slipstream such as update with a windows xp cd....

May 03, 05 - 12:57 pm Comment from: wideboy

is it just me or does anyone else care if mac gains in market share or users? i like being in the minority on this. i love watching and hearing my friends complain about their pee seas and then watch their jaws drop when they see my mac blow threw giant files or play dvds while i work in photoshop and dowload music at the same time with out crashing or (best case) ask to load drivers.
i have never run into something i wanted to do on my mac that i couldnt find software to complete. so what if i cant run "bass fishing showdown" because its a pee sea game only. i can live with that. so what if i cant find software in the close out bin at compusa for .99 that will run on my mac. ill survive. with bigger market share and more users come more no-life hackers to spam us to death and write mac-specific viruses.
i love living under the radar and am happy to pay a premium to do it.
just my .02.

May 04, 05 - 06:15 am Comment from: Jack Arends

I was just at a business meeting (I am the only member of a company with 600 employees who uses a Mac for business) and spoke with a few people about longhorn. A lot of them had never even heard of it. Most computer users are not nearly as savy as people who read sites like this one and will make decisions based on sound bytes and what they hear from people around them. Sooooo, I really think that Apple has to get more sound bytes out there. wink

May 10, 05 - 10:12 pm Comment from: Benno Begg

Loved the article. I am sold on Macs and can't wait for OS X 10.5!!!

May 12, 05 - 03:47 am Comment from: Hybrid

All those raving articles about Tiger are usually written by Apple fans. It is THEY who keep mentioning Longhorn, because they think Tiger is as good as or even better than Longhorn (which is more wishfull thinking than anything else. Longhorn isn't there yet, so you can't compare it). If you repeat something often enough, people will believe it's true. Well, as a user of both systems, I don't fall for that stuff. Give me the finished product and I'll judge for myself, I'm not going for a product based on the ravings of some fanboys or their pathetic conspiracy theories.

How idiotic is it to be a fan of either MS or Apple? Get real, they are not popstars or anything like that. They SELL computers and as far as I'm concerned they will need to work damn hard to get my cash.

May 12, 05 - 12:40 pm Comment from: rosie

Well said Hybrid! At last a wise person! It's really funny to see how mac and pc lovers r doing catfight! Seems they're totally obssesed. This is something like how Britney and Christina teenage fans dish each other idol! But Bill gates and Steve Jobs r not pop stars or politicans (no difference) to amuse us and make us to fight. They r supposed to make some good stuffs for what we do. I use WinXP cos I have to use programms such as Autocad, Photoshop, corel draw, 3dmax...so I don't have any other choice. The problem with Winxp is being on top without any real competitor so they in Microsot don't feel enough necessity to make a better version as soon as possible. I don't know how is with Mac cos never used it. But I'm really waiting for Longhorn and wish to find it cool. And I have to say WinXP was sooo way better than Win98 so it's expectable to find Longhorn better enough to satisfy PC users. But waiting till 2006? It's too long.

May 20, 05 - 11:36 am Comment from: justified

Let's get a few things straight:

Jobs and Gates ARE pop stars (stars of popular culture). Their rivalry has enjoyed an audience for many years.

Being a fan of MS or Apple is just as entertaining to some as being a fan of sports, entertainment, or any other preoccupation for another.

Dual platform businesses are all the same — Windows users primarily work in Word, an email program and a web browser (some users specialize in Excel and some in PowerPoint) while the Macs do the heavy lifting with production of marketing materials in print and web and so on. (No flaming, please. I'm quite aware that there are exceptions to this rule.)

Windows users in business (unlike Windows users at home) don't give a rat's arse that their operating system is lousy as long as an IT staff is around to keep things up and running.

Mac users in business don't want the IT staff anywhere near their Macs!

Gaming is an irrelevant topic in today's computer/OS debates.

90% of the PC/OS market accepts Windows the same way they accept fall-apart IKEA furniture, McD's burgers that don't really taste like burgers, third-world Wal-Mart merchandise, Britney Spears, rap, crappy cinema, reality TV drivel, and their ever-expanding waste lines.

Microsoft will deliver yet another knock off of the Mac OS (with its answer to Dashboard and Spotlight, etc.) and will be lauded for its innovation and supremacy once again. And zealous PC users will once again claim that Apple copied it all from Microsoft.

May 21, 05 - 09:01 am Comment from: chris

I am from the "devil" XP side with some Mac experience and i have to say that many Apple users are dazzled from the propaganda of the steve jobs. My experience with IMac: very unstable, much more the my Dell system. The pure CPU power is NOT so fast as Steve jobs would like to have it (Last review of the bes german hardware PC AND MAC magazine ct´( 11/05): G5 2,7: SPEC_INT2000 : 21,4 compared to an cheaper dell Xeon 3,6 :31,4.) This is just 50 percent slower !! And this is a true CPU compare, not some tweaked "oh, my good, this one special compiled Photoshop filter is 2 times faster" benc. Some with grafic adapters. The new apple ATI 9650 card is nearly 4 times slower in 3D than every cheapest super market PC card.

And for the tiger thing: Spotlight is nice, but there was a free Windows extension called MSN Desktop search (Beta) 3/4 year out before tiger. Now it´s final and much faster then the apple one (and still free, tiger is not). The "new dashboard" is just a little improved "Konfabulator", look at there homepage, the Mac version was there long time before tiger released and even the windows version was earlier. What a shame from Steve Jobs, to copy a nice tool and say "its from Apple". It´s not, its a copy and it´s stolen, ask the developer on the konfabulator site !!

Some thing about Tiger 64 bit. There are many very detailed reviews in the ct´magazine, so the same (issue 10/05, tiger review): Tiger is NOT a 64 bit system at all like Longhorn or even Windows 64 Bit. It´s NOT !! The underlaying kernel is 64 bit, thats true, but the hole user interface from tiger is 32 bit!! Every programm with a graphic interface is 32 bit !! If you want to use the 64 bit tiger, you have to program without ! graphic user interface. Of course Steve Jobs will never tell you, because he can sell it much more better if he let the poor apple user in their simple knowledge. (by the way, the first 64 bit DESKTOP processor was NOT an apple like Steve told you, there was an DEC Alpha 64 bit computer in the highscreen stores years before, together with windows NT 3.1 64 on it.But it wasnt´t an success..)

Open your eyes, Apple is trying to cheat so often in the past, saying apple is faster and NEVER it was true.At the presentation from the G5 they even cheated the Benchmark programms and deactivated all fast extensions on the Pentium.

Look for yourself:

http://spl.haxial.net/apple-powermac-G5/

May 31, 05 - 11:35 am Comment from: Jedi Master

This article is a joke, right? Does anyone really expect us to believe the claim that Longhorn is mentioned and praised in most OS X reviews? This simply isn't true. Contrary to what SteveJack writes, the mass media has gotten off by bashing Windows operating systems any way they can. Not that I base my OS opinions on the GUI, but when WinXP was launched, media squirrels the world over attacked the interface, calling it "childish", "candy-colored", and so on.

Flash forward to OS X's release. These same media outlets bleed absolute praise for its look, saying it ushered in the future of desktop computing.

Face the truth: OS X was inspired by WinXP, graphically as well as functionally.

Face the truth: XP brought bigger advancements to the computing field while OS X was just a twinkle in someone's eye.

Face the truth: This idea that Longhorn is being mentioned in OS X reviews is nothing short of absurd. The only people who ever mention Longhorn are the ones who judge and bash it long before its release. SteveJack is clearly one of these people.

Face the truth: You know why Apple releases so many revisions of OS X? Its because they constantly need a new feature to hype if they want to keep up with Microsoft.

Microsoft's philosophy: Release an OS with ALL of the new features, support it, and begin work on the next major OS, allowing more time for optimum innovation.

Apple's philosophy: Release a graphically enhanced version of an existing OS to counter Microsoft, and force users to upgrade to a brand-new OS every three to six months just so they can have one new feature per OS. Hype that feature up as being something new, (new because it will work on 10.4 and not 10.3.9, or whatever they number it as...) and watch the media fall blindly in love.

Jun 05, 05 - 10:03 pm Comment from: shen

"My daughter's friends who come over and see her G5 iMac running Panther ARE affected by it. Seriously, they sit in awe at her screen and what she can do with it."

there is nothing so fun as having 8-12 apps open on my iBook and F9 drag things from one to the other in some regular work day routine and hear "holy freaking $#!% what was that you just did?!?" from over my shoulder. i am so used to it by now that i forget just how cool it is......

and they always ask where i downloaded it, and how they can install it on their win boxes. i LOVE that part...

Jun 05, 05 - 10:07 pm Comment from: shen

"Face the truth: OS X was inspired by WinXP, graphically as well as functionally.

Face the truth: XP brought bigger advancements to the computing field while OS X was just a twinkle in someone's eye."

hey genius, you might wanna just check your dates on that one...... find out when XP was released, then when OS X was released, k? get back to us.....

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