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Dvorak predicts Mac OS X for generic x86, Apple ‘Office’ suite, dawn of Mac viruses and spyware
Monday, June 13, 2005 - 05:13 PM EST

John Dvorak has outlined the future in his latest column for PC Magazine. According to Dvorak's crystal ball:

1. Apple releases OS X86 as a proprietary system for its boxes. It's immediately pirated and goes into the wild.

MacDailyNews Note: This was an easy "prediction," as it seems to have already happened. See Report: Apple Mac OS X 10.4.1 for Intel hits piracy sites (June 11, 2005) for more information.

2. Apple squawks about the piracy to draw attention to it, thus increasing the piracy, creating a virtual or shadow beta test. The complaining is necessary to assure Microsoft that Apple does not intend to compete with Windows. This keeps Microsoft selling MS Office for the Mac.

MacDailyNews Note: We haven't heard any official "squawking" from Apple, yet, although it is very early. See Is Apple setting up the ultimate "Switcher" campaign by preparing to let Mac OS X speak for itself? (June 10, 2005) for more.

3. There are driver issues that get resolved by the hobbyists, and OS X86 now remains in shadow beta, being tested in a process that is apparently outside of Apple's control, but is in fact carefully monitored by the company.

MacDailyNews Note: Sounds plausible.

4. Once the system stabilizes in the wild, Apple announces that it cannot do anything about the piracy situation and that it's apparent that everyone wants this OS rather than Windows. It's "the will of the public." Apple then makes the stupendous announcement that it will sell a generic boxed OS, "for the rest of you!" One claim is that it is a solution to spyware.

MacDailyNews Note: This, too, sounds plausible.

5. Microsoft freaks out and stops development of Office for the Mac. But in the interim, while not selling OS X86 "for the rest of you," Apple has been developing a complete Office suite, which it announces at the same time.


MacDailyNews Note: Interesting, but would Apple perhaps release their "Office" before or after Microsoft freaked, if they do indeed freak.

6. Spyware and viruses emerge on the Mac.

MacDailyNews Note: Anything's possible, but even if something did happen, it would pale in scope to the morass of the Windows platform. Mac OS X is just too battened down and looked at by too many people for too many years for tens of thousands of viruses to emerge for Mac OS X.

Dvorak writes, "It is easy to predict what will happen after that. To many Mac aficionados the uniqueness of the platform will be lost forever, and who knows what they'll do for fun. But one thing is for sure: The big problem that Mac users will have to face is the emergence of virus code and spyware aimed at them. It's possible that the Mac users going into this new world will be like the American Indians when confronted by smallpox-contaminated blankets. Most Mac users are ignorant about this plague and ill prepared to deal with it."

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The insistence by some that if Mac OS X had the market share of Windows that viruses and malware would be just as bad is just illogical. There are millions and millions of Mac OS X computers on the 'Net and zero viruses. Do the math. Use common sense. Mac OS X is simply more secure than Windows by design.

Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple may be prepping for attack on Microsoft in late 2006 - June 12, 2005
Report: Apple Mac OS X 10.4.1 for Intel hits piracy sites - June 11, 2005
Dvorak: Apple's move to Intel could kill Linux - June 07, 2005
Dvorak: 'Apple should be stronger, but Mac mystique will wane' in wake of Intel switch - June 07, 2005
Dvorak predicts the 'MacIntel'; says 'Apple must go with Intel or risk its future' - April 07, 2003
Dvorak spews latest prediction: Apple to go Intel within 18 months - March 19, 2003
Is Apple setting up the ultimate "Switcher" campaign by preparing to let Mac OS X speak for itself? - June 10, 2005

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Jun 14, 05 - 05:07 am Comment from: Macaday

Rara Avis - is that a real name?? You wrote:

"No virii for the macs... Sure! Keep changing the entire architecture once every 2 years. Good way of keeping virus writers away. And hey, that helps keep developers away too."

You are wrong bigtime. OSX has been running 5 years - the same UNIX based OS with additional enhancements and improvements along the way. If anyone had a chance of getting in with viruses it would have been in the FIRST year not in the sixth!

One question for you: over 60% of web servers are Appache - they do not succumbe to viruses - why? Because MS servers are hit. Also, Amiga had a much lower market share than Mac yet also had loads of viruses. How do you explain that?

OSX is as secure as it can be and where Windows is 1 out of 10 OSX is 9.5 on the security scale.

Jun 14, 05 - 05:25 am Comment from: Queeezie

Apple's Jobs Tells Graduates About Dropout

"When he was diagnosed with cancer, Jobs said his doctor told him he only had three- to-six months to live. He later found out he had a rare, treatable form of the disease, but he still learned a tough lesson.

"Remembering you are going to die is the best way to avoid the fear that you have something to lose," he said."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/13/AR2005061300477_pf.html

Jun 14, 05 - 06:21 am Comment from: ha!

uh, the pirated version of OSX was a hoax, a goatse hoax, in fact...

unless there was a hoax AND a real copy.

Jun 14, 05 - 06:31 am Comment from: Eweek

Eweek Headline:

Hot Ideas Don't Always Win the Race

"Apple's CPU decision is the right move—to a lesser technology."

GREAT endorsement. <rolling eyes>

Jun 14, 05 - 07:38 am Comment from: effwerd

Y'all need to back off of bashing MS security. So many years of security-focus will soon pay off as Windows will finally get some relief from malware with the new IE7. It will have reduced privileges so it won't be able to install applications without explicit permission.

"The Web site's code won't have enough privileges to install software, copy files to startup folder, or hijack the settings for the browser's homepage or search provider. The primary goal of Low Rights IE is to restrict the impact of a security vulnerability....It can limit the damage a vulnerability can do,"

Showing their dedication to Windows security, it will only be available for Longhorn. So there!

Jun 14, 05 - 07:53 am Comment from: Jeff

I can see all this happening except for viruses. Spyware could already happen. Its the risk of using shareware. Either use a product that you purchase or use open source or a very reputable shareware application. But I would never install a shareware app from someone I've never heard of. Thats why, if you are trying to enter the market, consider open sourcing your product.

Apple should embrace either OpenOffice or the Open Office Document format that has been created by the OASIS group.

Jun 14, 05 - 08:16 am Comment from: zupchuck

I'm sure there will be viruses for OS X, but widespread? Linux is more popular than OS X, yet where is the torrent of viruses? BSD and other flavors of UNIX have been around for decades in some form. Where's the panic?

Yes, the security through obscurity mtyh is real- but not for the reasons many folks think. It's called Kerckhoff's Law.

Jun 14, 05 - 08:25 am Comment from: Jack Arends

Hmm, my post didn't show up. Just in case I will try and post it again, sorry if it turns into a double.

Rara Avis you have no idea what you are talking about, especially if you are on Windows. Talk about having to put up with a lot of crap! And what is this I hear? Microsoft is now going to sell some kind of subscription service to try and keep you "safe"? After they were the ones to come up with an OS with swiss cheese for security that was the cause for not being "safe" in the first place? Wow, you better get in line now to bend over when it is your turn.

And I am sick of people saying that Mac Users have done a flip flop. The PPC was and is a great chip. G4s were great in their day but are getting a bit long in the tooth. G5s are still currently cutting edge but they were not getting the development needed. The G5 not getting development meant it was not getting into Laptops and this is where all the growth is ocurring. Apple had to act now or fall behind. Although the architecture of the Intel chip has not been as ideal as the PPC in the past, they are fast and recently the design has been improving. Also If they are able to eventually eliminate all the crud layered on to keep them backwards compatible for windows, that will again increase the quality.

Apple did not switch so much because of where the chips are NOW as because of where they are GOING TO BE in a year or more's time. I am OK with the switch to Intel because Steve's track record more than merits me putting my trust in him that this is the way to go to continue and expand on the quality of the Mac Experience. I just ordered a G5 PowerMac because G5 Macs are really kick ass right now. I also plan on picking up an Intel Mac Powerbook later because I am confident that they will be Kick Ass then too.

And most importantly I have to agree with Steve Jobs - The soul of a Mac is in the OS. What I will see on the screen on an Intel Mac will be the same thing I see on the screen on a PPC Mac and I am confident that it will work as good if not better. Yes I will have to upgrade some software at some point, but I would have had to do that anyway so what is different about that? This transition has been well thought through and I can't see any major holes in it. Macs will continue to lead the computer industry in innovation and I will be there right along with them surfing the cutting edge while windozers keep on waiting and patching and downloading drivers and screwing around with their security. Windows is not "bad" I guess. I mean it works most of the time for a lot of people. It is just not "good enough" for me.

I may not be able to have the best car in the world. I may not be able to have the best house in the world. There are a lot of things I may not be able to have the best of in the world, BUT I CAN have the best consumer computer in the world. The Apple Macintosh running OS X.

Jun 14, 05 - 08:47 am Comment from: swtzrs

Dvorak's theory is pure BS - no company, not even a company as different as Apple, would conduct their business in the manner he just described.

Not even a fictional company in a movie by Ed Wood Jr. would do something as ridiculous as what he wrote.

... and to take a story that is so utterly stupid and tag on, "... and then you Mac users will get malware!"

He's a sad, clueless, angry tech-writer who isn't even able to come up with plausible reasons to tweak the Mac community's nose anymore.

( "Apple's going to secretly release a product that lets people install their OS on a $500 Intel box! ... Then they'll get a virus!" - STFU! )

Jun 14, 05 - 09:17 am Comment from: Merriam-Webster

Please STOP using the term "virii" because it IS NOT a real word. The plural for virus is "viruses" AND NOT "virii". Thank you.

vi·rus
n. pl. vi·rus·es

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=viruses

Jun 14, 05 - 09:26 am Comment from: ppcx

The biggest security problem with Windows is that to do almost anything you have to have local administrator privileges. Unix, by default, uses non-privileged accounts and lets you do almost anything, including installing programs, as a non-privileged user. Those programs would go into your local home directory but they couldn't do anything to the system or other users.

Since Apple kept that part of *BSD when doing the kernel/core that is the biggest positive for security on OSX.

I disagree that OSX is Unix because as any Unix or even Linux sysadmin knows, none of the standard configuration files are in the correct places and many of the standard commands are still being implemented.

But the reason viruses are not prevalent on OSX is the inherent security through using non-privileged accounts. Same with Unix and Linux.

MW: street, as in "the street needs to understand what really makes OSX less virus-prone"

Jun 14, 05 - 09:27 am Comment from: signed, another nerd.

jack arends----

Do you have a t-shirt that says that:
I may not be able to have the best car in the world.
I may not be able to have the best house in the world. BUT I CAN have the best consumer computer in the world. The Apple Macintosh running OS X.


You will pick up lots of hot babes with that.

----signed, another nerd.

Jun 14, 05 - 09:39 am Comment from: hot babes

We're not going home with anyone on THIS board.

Jun 14, 05 - 10:01 am Comment from: iVeritas

The important thing to notice here is that DvORaK and probably others like him now believe that the Mac OS is going mainstream.

Jun 14, 05 - 11:15 am Comment from: Native Voice

Off-topic but Ron's remark deserves some follow-up.

http://www.college.ucla.edu/webproject/micro12/webpages/indianssmallpox.html

Jun 14, 05 - 12:20 pm Comment from: LordRobin

Okay, repeat after me...

There is no such thing as a "computer virus".
There is no such thing as an "x86 virus".
There can only be "Windows viruses", "Linux viruses", and "Mac viruses".

Viruses, spyware, and malware are tied to the operating system, not the CPU chip. Just because the Mac switches to Intel does not suddenly make Mac OS X as vulnerable as Windows.

Now it's true (or at least I've heard), that buffer overflows are easier to engineer on an x86 CPU than on a PowerPC. Nevertheless, once you've successfully executed your overflow code, you still need to interface with the OS to do something Evil. That's just not as easy with Mac OS X. For one thing, it's a lot harder to disguise what you're doing. There's no registry to bury yourself in. Startup items are clearly listed and can always be deleted.

So let's stop this "ZOMG MACS WILL GET TEH VIRUSES" crap. A Mac will still be a Mac and it will still be secure.

Jun 14, 05 - 01:00 pm Comment from: effwerd

"Not even a fictional company in a movie by Ed Wood Jr. would do something as ridiculous as what he wrote."

Yes it would.

Jun 15, 05 - 08:09 am Comment from: Blackthorne

Even a broken clock gives the correwct time twice a day.

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