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Sat, Jul 04, 2009 - 11:56 PM EDT  —  AAPL: 140.02 (-2.81, -1.97%)  |  NASDAQ: 1796.52 (-49.20, -2.67%)

Barron’s: Apple shares stand to gain as Mac takes PC market share
Monday, July 17, 2006 - 09:05 AM EDT

"Shares of Apple Computer Inc., which have plunged 40 percent, could rebound over the next year as interest in the company's Macintosh computers picks up, Barron's financial newspaper reported on Sunday," Reuters reports.

"Some Wall Street bulls maintain that shares will jump from 45 percent to 75 percent in the next 12 months, with revamped Macs possibly poised to grab back market share, Barron's said," Reuters reports.

"The new models, featuring Intel chips for the first time, can run both Apple's operating system and Microsoft's Windows, and could help Apples shares, which have been hit by fears of a slowdown in sales of iPod music players, Barron's reported. "The switch to Intel processors, nearly complete, could help boost Mac sales, which last year accounted for about 45 percent of Apple's total revenue, Barron's reported... Apple appears to have a tremendous opportunity to expand its share of the market..."

"Charlie Wolf of Needham & Co, concludes that Intel Corp.-equipped Macs could boost their market share in the U.S. and European consumer markets from a total of about 4 percent in 2005 to 15 percent in 10 years," Reuters reports.

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Jul 17, 06 - 09:20 am Comment from: Purcey Lurcey

It's beginning to get abit like flogging a dead horse here!

Sure we can run Windows on a Mac, but most people out there don't give a sh!t.

Their PCs work fine, and if there is a problem, they'll pick another one up for a few hundred quid.

If they want to spend allot of money, they'll buy a Mac. But not many poeple want to spend allot of money on something they will use to write a few letters, and web browse!

So Apple will never hit above 10% market share... (10% if they are lucky).

Having said that, I'll buy a Mac, when my PC dies, cus I need to finally get an LCD screen. But even that could be 1-2 years away!

Jul 17, 06 - 09:21 am Comment from: Maddog

Well good.

Jul 17, 06 - 09:24 am Comment from: qka

Purcey:

It's "a lot", not "allot".

Just remember, you don't write "alittle" or "allittle".

Jul 17, 06 - 09:26 am Comment from: EZ Mac

I don't care if they only get 8% of the market just as long as they keep making solid products. I don't mind being the few who knows whats going on.

Jul 17, 06 - 09:29 am Comment from: Halla Loo Ya

"Macs could boost their market share in the U.S. and European consumer markets from a total of about 4 percent in 2005 to 15 percent in 10 years"

LOL. Up,what, 300+% in the next 10 years? What crystal ball gazing! You realize Steve will be over 60 by then - you think he will even be at Apple then? Once Steve leaves, Apple dies or is bought out.

----
"...could rebound over the next year as interest in the company's Macintosh computers picks up,.."

You mean there is no interest Macs now or for the last umpteen years? OSX was supposed to be the Windows killer - it is 5 years old and Mac market share is near its lowest. Apple has gotten great press, has the iPod....and these reporters think that Mac has been living in a secret vacuum the last 10 years. People don´t understand OS´s but they do understand that Apple has the same processor in them as Dell, sony, Fujitsu whatever. So a computer is a computers is a computer...

Jul 17, 06 - 09:37 am Comment from: Connor MacBook

I'd be happy with anywhere between 5% and 10% share. Apple has a masterplan it has been executing slowly with OS X and the Apple Stores. Market share has been trending up slowly since bottoming out a couple of years back, and should accelerate once the Intel transition is bedded down.

Jul 17, 06 - 09:40 am Comment from: Ray

Sorry got to pipe up...

Mac ain't taking any significant PC share. The analysts are setting Apple up for failure. Now when Apple doesn't take any significant share from PC these same dumb asses will down grade Apple's stock prices.

Too many IT ppl walk into their offices every morning and polish their little M$ certified <fill in name here> diplomas. It is a job security issue. No CIO is going to walk into a board room and say "Good news, I am going to shrink my staff and budget by a factor of five. Thus shifting the balance of power in these meetings and making me less significant." See how easy that is.

Yes that is what is going to happen in boardrooms all over the world because Borron's makes IT decisions for everybody.

Just my $0.02

Jul 17, 06 - 09:45 am Comment from: Carlo

Halla Loo Ya,

what would you rather have? a crappy operating system that acts like a virus magnet ie windows, with a lot of market share...or

the sleek, efficient, virus free, stable kick-ass OS that is OS X with RELATIVElY small market share?

I dont really care as long as Im using the best OS, and the morons are using windows.

keep using your crappy little dell safe in the knowledge that your a good little sheep.

Jul 17, 06 - 09:51 am Comment from: Macgravy

Ray....I believe you are correct about no corporate change. I have heard it here where I work from a dozen IT people....and now half of them have bought a Mac in the last year. They all love them...each have come and told me they thought I was just telling them crap about the Mac....They all realize now that Macs are a better solution, but each of them have said..."don't tell anyone"....and we are not going to tell the boss' for fear of actually starting a change in this aerospace company and they may lose their jobs....but at the same time, there are more people that are bringing in their own MacBook Pros and using them in place of the dulls.....they just work....

Jul 17, 06 - 09:55 am Comment from: Well isn't that special...

"Their PCs work fine, and if there is a problem, they'll pick another one..."

"Having said that, I'll buy a Mac, when my PC dies..."
_____________________

In art class I was once warned by a professor, "don't be so arrogant as to think that you're the only one who likes it." Point is, so many people say they're switching to a Mac and somehow believe they're the only one considering it.

I call B.S. I switched last year, before the intel announcement, as did a coworker. Since then I have not heard a single person who verbalized their desire to buy a new computer not mention at least looking at a Mac.

I personally know 8 people who have bought new computers this year: all of them Macs.

Mac market share will increase faster than many people realize.

Jul 17, 06 - 09:58 am Comment from: Halla Loo Ya

Head in sand, Carlo, head in the sand.
Face reality and then problems have a better chance of being solved. 97% of the computer owners out there could care less about having the "best" OS; most could not even tell you what an OS is.
Despite all the great PR, ad campaigns, "iPod factor", etc...Apple can´t budge its market share. I bet most sales of new Apple computers are going to old Apple computer owners (me being one). If you look at the stats, every 10 years Apples sells around 16-17 million computers...apparently to the same niche customer base.

Jul 17, 06 - 10:05 am Comment from: traveler

Just hilarious listening to Mac owners. If one listens to them everybody has already switched or owns a Mac. Apple has nearly 100% market share.
It called being delusional.

---------
I am waiting for someone to finally challenge the stat bandied around that says iPod has about 80% of the music download market. I believe it, but people then seem to think that translates to 80% of the total MP3 player market...and that ain´t real. I see too many $29.95-type MP3 players in people´s hands.

Jul 17, 06 - 10:17 am Comment from: Purcey Lurcey

Carlo

"keep using your crappy little dell safe in the knowledge that your a good little sheep."

Well that's hardly a cogent argument is it? Me thinks the fella doth protest too much. It's exactly this kind of attitude that makes Mac users look like smug arrogant pricks.

You're bitter, that's what it is.

Because Macs will always have a small market share
Because games like Grand Theft Auto will not be developed for Macs
Because most people will just not buy a mac, thereby stunting software and hardware development for Macs.

I can understand this, but acting smug and arrogant won't help your cause. In fact it will only worsen the situation.

Jul 17, 06 - 10:30 am Comment from: Purcey Lurcey

Well isn't that special...

Seriously, No B.S.

I'm an engineer married to an orthodontist. Nobody I (nor my wife) know, be it friends, family or work colleagues are considering switching. Indeed the overwhelming majority of these people aren't even aware of the Mactel option. I have 2 Mac friends, but these guys have been Mac for as long as I have known them.

The impression I get from most people is that PCs are tools, for web browsing, admin stuff, games and downloads. Simple. Why complicate the issue by messing around with a different OS?

Windows does everything fine, so why the hell switch?

The way I see it, other than a certain type of geek, (such as me)... nobody is switching!

Hell, I'm a creative 3D modeller, video editor in my spare time, and Windows does it all fine for me. Like I say the only reason I'm switching is for the LCD... and that I'm a certain type of geek.

My thesis, is that I do not believe that Apple will EVER gain greater than 10% market share. 10% if they are lucky.

There is too much competition in the PC hardware industry, so prices will always remain relatively low.

Microsoft will do whatever it takes to keep the overwhelming majority of people happy with Windows.

Apple will always be more expensive than PCs when it comes to non-design companies buying work PCs.

Jul 17, 06 - 10:48 am Comment from: Charko

'Well isn't that special...'

I think you're right. I've had a similar experience here in Berlin. People are catching on.
There's a big department store near me which has been selling Macs for the last few years. I asked the head salesman whether they had sold more Macs this year than last. His answer: "Oh yes, a lot more!" - and the big seller is the Mac Book.

Jul 17, 06 - 10:56 am Comment from: Charko

Halla Loo Ya,

It's not only your English that is all mixed up -

[I think you meant they couldn't care less]

but also your opinions.

The fact is Apple is increasing their market share NOW.

The last 'transition' quarter was the exception that proves the rule.

Jul 17, 06 - 11:00 am Comment from: Hmmm...

I'd like to see everyone put their money where their mouth is. Those who say Apple is doomed can short Apple stock and those who say it's going to grow can buy.

I have $5000 invested in Apple. Most I bought Oct 19, 2000 for a split-adjusted $10.03, which I've made a few cents on. The rest I bought recently when it dropped back down to $60. Obviously even after the drop I'm still very happy with my shares.

So all of you who say Apple is doomed open your Ameritrade account and short that baby.

Jul 17, 06 - 11:15 am Comment from: Big Al

There must be someone in every Fortune 500 company who has the stroke to influence their IT department.

Apple, for Jobs sake, fine this executive and send him or her a MacBook Pro for free. Send their kids MacBooks or iMacs as well. Try to win over influential people at these big companies.

It will only take one major business to have big time success with a switch to Macs to start a stampede.

Believe me, I'm from Calgary and I know Stampedes.

Jul 17, 06 - 11:28 am Comment from: Halla Loo Ya

Charko - thank you for taking the time to point out my typing error.

You note: "The fact is Apple is increasing their market share NOW."

You can´t prove it and if it is happening it is a small minor percentage and it is occuring mainly because Mac owners have waited a loooooooooooooooooooooong time for a new notebook and now they are buying. That is where the increased Mac buying is coming from - Mac owners.
For every 100 computers sold today only 3 will be Macs.

Jul 17, 06 - 11:33 am Comment from: DLMeyer

For those who are saying anything about the rate of switching, the facts basically say it all - Mac's market share has increased for 11 of the past 12 quarters, and in most of those cases the market, itself, had grown as well.

For those noting that Apple isn't making much progress in the enterprise, the facts are much the same, if more dismal - Apple is making great strides in the server rooms, but only because they are coming up from a base only slightly above 0.00%. And their presence on the desktops is growing only slightly and mostly in limited segments. OS X is growing in business, but they are no where near being a force there. The vast majority of Macs are sold to that 1/3 of the market owned by consumers.

OS X's numbers are certainly growing - both unit sales and market share - but Linux is growing ahead of them. Mostly in the larger business segment. Now Mac can run Linux - as well as Windows and Solaris - all at once. But very few people care, mostly possible switchers looking for their security blanket or younger folk looking to experiment from a friendlier base.

Jul 17, 06 - 11:35 am Comment from: Wan Hung Low

Wonder how long it will be before the press starts tracking Apple computer market share since Steve´s revival at Apple and saying to him "Why isn´t working? And what are you going to do to make it work?"

Apple may be selling more computers, but the Windows guys are selling even more both numbers wise and percent wise.

Jul 17, 06 - 11:45 am Comment from: DLMeyer

Hallo, I meant to chide Charko about making a fuss over your sloppy typing - what's that quote the Christians spout when they get caught teaching HATE as a family value ... Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.

But you are very much wrong in your challenge. Every quarter the numbers come out and avery quarter (except last) they give Apple's Macs a larger share of the over-all market. Up from 2.0% to maybe 2.6% ... 0.6% doesn't seem much, eh? ... is a 30% gain in share and made more significant by the fact that the market itself grew that much - they had to sell 30% more Macs just to stay even! And remember ... over 90% of those Macs are in the 1/3 of the market devoted to consumer purchases - Apple is close to owning 10% of the consumer market! OK, that's still less than 3.5% of the total market ... but it sounds better that way. And there are two or three companies who make it their business to report these numbers ... I can only recall IDC at the moment. But ... look them up.

Jul 17, 06 - 12:04 pm Comment from: Hmmm...

I'm less interested in market share than I am in growth. The numbers below should be some indication of Mac sales growth over the last 2 years (not market share). Wednesday will provide an updated look at the numbers...

Quarter - iPod #s - Mac #s
Q1 02 - 125000 - 746000
Q2 02 - 62000 - 813000
Q3 02 - 59000 - 808000
Q4 02 - 140000 - 734000
Q1 03 - 219000 - 743000
Q2 03 - 80000 - 711000
Q3 03 - 304000 - 771000
Q4 03 - 336000 - 787000
Q1 04 - 733000 - 829000
Q2 04 - 807000 - 749000
Q3 04 - 860000 - 876000
Q4 04 - 2016000 - 836000
Q1 05 - 4580000 - 1046000
Q2 05 - 5311000 - 1070000
Q3 05 - 6155000 - 1182000
Q4 05 - 6451000 - 1236000
Q1 06 - 14043000 - 1254000
Q2 06 - 8526000 - 1112000

Data from Apple financial reports. Refer to their reports for accuracy.

Jul 17, 06 - 12:08 pm Comment from: Hmmm...

DLMeyer,

IDC, Gartner and Dataquest are the ones I know.

Jul 17, 06 - 01:56 pm Comment from: DLMeyer

Hmmm..., thanks. That sounds about right.

Vendor Q4 2003 Q3 2004 Q4 2004
Dell 31.58% 34.50% 34.68%
HP (Merged) 22.01% 21.44% 20.86%
Gateway (Merged)7.97% 6.45% 7.70%
IBM 3.47% 3.33% 3.04%
Apple 2.06% 2.20% 2.88%

I don't know if that table will come out right. It's an old one showing how Apple, the #5 in the market, grew market share in 2004. I offer that because I'm too lazy to search further. That's a ~40% gain in market share in a year. I think the numbers quoted above are "Apple" quarters while these are "market" quarters, six months difference (I believe).

Jul 17, 06 - 01:58 pm Comment from: Carlo

Purcey Lurcey,

Im bitter because I use a mac instead of windows am I? lol whatever dellboy.

Jul 17, 06 - 06:52 pm Comment from: ©

Hmmm: "I'm less interested in market share than I am in growth.

---> Agreed. Your numbers show steady growth in sales - *very important*, even if they do not outpace *total* market sales. How many of those are to switchers is not discernable from the data, but definite growth in sales is absolutely apparent. Can it be sustained? - hopefully. I only wish the iPod and Mac numbers were reversed!

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