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Macintosh ‘Ignorance Lag’ is finally ending; market share gains looming

Do you think the world is suffering from a collective case of "Ignorance Lag" when it comes to the Macintosh? I do. What is "Ignorance Lag" you ask? Okay, I'll explain, but I'm dropping the quotes, it's Ignorance Lag from here on out. Ignorance Lag is a term I invented to describe the period of time between the debut of something and the moment that the masses recognize that this something exists and understand its purpose. Once a product's Ignorance Lag ends, rapid and widespread adoption usually takes place if the product is any good.

Take, for example, the Compact Disc. The CD was introduced to Europe and Japan in the fall of 1982 and to the U.S. market in the spring of 1983. Now, my first CD (please keep the comments to yourself) was Joe Walsh's "The Confessor," which I bought shortly after its release in 1985 in a mall record store that had a whopping selection of about 50 CD's surrounded on all sides by thousands upon thousands of vinyl albums and cassettes. Nobody, except my friend who already had a CD player and had introduced CD's to me, knew what a CD was when I showed it to them. It's kind of like that scene from "The Wedding Singer," if you know to which scene I refer, cool. If not, I'm not stopping to explain it now.

Anyway, the CD had textbook Ignorance Lag. It was beautiful to behold. It took the CD eight years from its introduction to hit just 28% penetration of U.S. households in 1990. And the CD did not pass the Aunt Edith Test until 1992! "Aunt Edith Test," you ask? Very briefly, the Aunt Edith Test entails exposing the object to be tested to Aunt Edith, or showing her a picture at least, and if Aunt Edith knows what it is and has used it at least once, its Ignorance Lag is over. While an object is in the midst of Ignorance Lag, Aunt Edith is wholly unable to recognize the object, incapable of even guessing its purpose, and usually unhappy I am showing it to her because in order to keep the test pure, I cannot tell her what it is or what it does. This is so I can perform repeated Aunt Edith Tests to determine the end of Ignorance Lag. For a decade, every year at Christmas, I'd wave a CD in the poor thing's face until she got it.

When Aunt Edith muttered, "it's a CD, stupid" back in 1992, it marked the end of the Compact Disc's Ignorance Lag. I loved the CD's Lag especially. There was nothing like playing a CD for someone for the first time. My grandfather, when I played a CD for him in 1984, exclaimed, "would you listen to the tone of that!" I loved telling him there was a laser in there; he was flabbergasted. Anyway, demonstrating a CD to someone for the first time really was fun. But I soon found out that there was one thing that could top the look on people's faces. All you had to do was show them a Macintosh. But, they had to be free of the personal computer Ignorance Lag for it to work. You had to have someone who had already used a PC, like a DOS box or an Apple II or something and then you could literally shatter them.

Now, it didn't work if the person had no experience with PC's because they simply acted like, "of course, that's how a computer is supposed to act," because Apple had achieved such an intuitive way to operate the machine. They liked it and all, but it was like showing a baby a wheel, they kind of understood it and took it for granted after a moment. "Is that all a computer is? Okay, no longer afraid. Next?" But, show someone struggling with an IBM PC running DOS and it would wreck them quite nicely. You know the deal; first they got really defensive and actually made fun of the Mac, made fun of the mouse, and the "pretty pictures." Then they spent the next decade and half trying to copy it, so that today they can buy a machine for US$200 less than a Mac that kind of works like a Mac, but not nearly as well. And they're still trying. Fruitlessly (pun intended). But, as usual, I digress.

The Ignorance Lag for the Macintosh computer is still active. I can go out onto the street and pick twenty people at random and most of them have heard of Macintosh computers, but on average, only one of them has really used a Mac and understands why it's different. The other nineteen are still in Ignorance Lag. I realize we're at year eighteen and counting, but there's no disputing my previous statement. And Apple has done its damnedest to keep the Lag going with their many fumbles in the past, but now with the "Switch" campaign and the Apple retail stores actually providing a place for the masses to lay their hands upon a functioning Mac, I think that end of the Mac Ignorance Lag is finally looming.

I'm not predicting total world domination, I'm not that crazy, but I think real market share gains are coming for Apple very soon. And I think that those in the know within Apple believe so, too. Nothing concrete, but lately I notice a new and growing confidence within Apple's marketing folks who will remain nameless here. This "Switch" campaign combined with the retail stores is the correct formula. Finally. Sometimes I think that replicating Coke's formula would have been easier, but by Steve, I think they've got it! I have had more people in the past two months asking me about Macs than in the last ten years. Something's afoot.

Of course, Ignorance Lag can be applied to anything. Automobiles enjoyed a nice Lag back when; as did airplanes, the game of basketball, and fire. CD's are long past their Lag, and so are DVD's. There is no Ignorance Lag for AM/FM radio anymore. MP3 is still holding onto its Lag, though. Remember, we're talking about Aunt Edith types as the criterion to end a case of The Lag. Bluetooth is in severe Ignorance Lag. Cell phones are not. Segway's are in Lag. PDA's are not.

The problem with the Mac's Ignorance Lag is, as usual, Windows. Windows prolongs the Mac's Lag effect because it tries so hard to copy the Mac. People have to spend a little longer time with the Mac now to recognize its value and superiority over Windows. It's not as easy as comparing early versions of the Mac OS to DOS, but it still works. Nine times out of ten, I've found that putting a Mac onto someone's desk at work, someone who's never or not recently used a Mac, results in them buying a Mac for their home. It's predictable, but it takes time and they have to be able to use the Mac for real tasks to recognize why it's so special. That's why each Apple retail store that opens is so terribly important for the Macintosh platform. Those Apple stores are more than blonde wood and glass; Apple's ending the Mac Ignorance Lag one store at a time.

SteveJack is a long-time Macintosh user, web designer, multimedia producer and a regular
contributor to the MacDailyNews Opinion section.