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Dear MDN:
Please feel free to include iCal'd links to all those naysayers 15 months ago who scoffed at the temerity of Apple stating their sales goal of 10 million iPhones by end of 2008 (later amended to just calendar year 2008)!
I just can't wait to hear their explanations. But I'm sure there will be a deafening silence!

Yeah, I'm also waiting to hear what those naysayers have to say. I agree that it won't be much. They'll probably shift their criticism from Apple and the iPhone to those of us who bought them, claiming that we don't have any sense. It'll be interesting to see what the final number for the year will be.

Well, they could mention that 2M of those sales are to fill the inventory channel! But, it's no different than Dell filling the retail PC channel the previous two quarters and taking credit for renewed growth.

I thought it was impossible for Apple to sell 10 million iPhones in calendar 2008. Everyone said so.

@KenC

I thought Apple didn't count sales until bought by the end user? Regardless of whether the 2 million in the channel are counted in the sales to date or not—and I suspect not—they represent less than six weeks supply. There are thirteen weeks left to be counted in calendar 2008. Apple made the target everyone said they couldn't.

Where's Crazylegs? I hope he didn't kill himself.

How about Mobile Admin and the other BlackBerry fanboys?

Let's the Redmond chair-throwing begin!

Developers, developers, developers...

http://www.apple.com/iphone/appstore/


hahahaha

@Passerby, phones sold to retailers count as sold when shipped.

It's okay, but one has to account for channel inventory, that's why analysts ask every conference call. For example, MS has a history of stuffing the channel to meet sales predictions. Dell, built out their retail channel this year, and of course, got a bump from doing that, which people interpreted as Dell having reversed its course, when it had not.

Apple is getting a 2M iPhone bump, but its channel level is normal. If you have 30,000 points of sale, you got to have 4 to 5 weeks of inventory. That's normal, just be aware that inventory buildout gives you a bump. I estimated 1M additional iPhones due to inventory buildout, but apparently it was 2M!!!

With reports like these, could someone please tell me why AAPL is down 7.06% today?

Also, I'll have to listen to the conference call again, but if 2M represents 4 to 6 weeks of inventory, then that implies a sales target of 17M to 26M iPhones for 2009.

It's so quiet it's like the naysayers shut up. So quiet! LOL!

They're up 13% in after-hours trading.

Oct 21, 08 - 06:58 pm Comment from: It's About Time

The Naysayers are too busy riding the wave of financial chaos now flooding the non-Apple markets to have anything meaningful to say. On another note, their inability to "see the future" is impressive indeed.

...something to the effect of: "We've been perfecting the phone for years. No computer company is going to just walk in and make a better one."?

I'm suspicious that Apple reported the non GAAP earnings for the first time today not because "39% of revenue for the iPhone was too much to ignore" but because of a plan joyfully crafted by the executives to get back at the hedge funds and other shorts that Jobs felt had been plaguing the company's stock the last few months. According to the after market results the plan has been highly successful so far. Additional shorts are getting squeezed that can't trade in the aftermarket and have to wait for the regular market to open tomorrow before coving their short positions. It's going to be something to watch.

"[…]If 2M represents 4 to 6 weeks of inventory, then that implies a sales target of 17M to 26M iPhones for 2009."

Now that's hard to predict. We're still on the initial growth curve, and there was a lot of pent up demand in countries that had heard of the iPhone but couldn't buy it. Still there are a couple of very large markets to be added. I don't think we'll see a significant levelling of the worldwide growth curve relative to the other manufacturers in 2009. A deep recession might hit everyone's numbers. 20M in 2009 seems reasonable, but not inevitable.

The real question for the long term is if the iPhone is going to expand the smart phone market. I've seen several smart phones by other manufacturers. They are all gimmicky junk. Very much a niche product that people used because they had to for some reason. The iPhone on the other hand works simply and well. It is usable mobile internet. It is a good handheld games platform. It is a decent phone. It is expandable and adaptable because it is a miniature multi-purpose computer. In short, it is a device that people who don't have to have one for work might want anyway.

Oct 21, 08 - 07:20 pm Comment from: qka

@BSOD

The numbers came out after the market closed.

Waiting until the markets close is standard for most companies when reporting quarterly and annual results.

Oct 21, 08 - 07:25 pm Comment from: Jubei

MDN is best listing those fools who dismissed Apple. You guys really look fooooooooolish!!!! hehe

That must be wrong, iPhone does not have little plastic keys.....

The Question is - how much APPL stock do those "foolish" naysayers actually own? I'd bet a plenty. Drive the price down and keep hoarding them until Apple forges ahead next year.

Im really impressed with the sales figures for the Iphone.......

but just think how many more they would of sold in Europe particularly if the Iphone had a decent camera, video recording and mms, although americans probably wont believe it apple would of sold a ton more had these features been improved/added, these are features that are a key consideration when buying a phone for the 15-35 demographic over here, im not saying everyone before I get flamed but generally thats the case.

It's reminiscent of when IBM stated that the world-wide demand for computers would never exceed 5 and when Bill Gates said 640 Kb ought to be enough for anyone. The vision of Steve Jobs and crew is rare.

Oct 21, 08 - 08:07 pm Comment from: CYxodus

What struck me was what Scott Rockfeld of Microsoft Mobile said.

"We think we've got the one mobile platform you'll use for the rest of your life."

Did you notice that he didn't say "you'll want to use for the rest of your life"? I think that was very telling about the mindset of Microsoft.

"Unfortunately for Apple, problems like that don't exist in the handset business. Cell phones aren't clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good."

Bwa-ha-ha-HA!

If he really thought that, I pity him.

Oct 21, 08 - 08:35 pm Comment from: January 24, 1984

Just got back from traveling to several cities in the US.

iPhones everywhere!

As a postscript to MDN's excellent archive of frigtard punditry, below is a copy of a note I sent a moment ago to Rex Crum of Marketwatch:

Rex, on February 22, you published an article titled, "Could the iPhone drag down Apple?"
SUBHEAD: "Analyst calls company's sales targets for device 'optimistic'"

(Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/more-iphone-concerns-likely-weigh/story.aspx?guid={8018A978-77C2-461B-B557-9E763C38EBB9})

In your article, you quoted Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research analyst with the following passage:

"Sacconaghi pointed to the fact that Apple's iPhone sales averaged 180,000 units a week in the last quarter of 2007, which historically is Apple's busiest business period of the year. Based on that estimate, Sacconaghi has forecast the sale of 7.9 million iPhone devices in 2008."

"Apple's goal of selling 10 million iPhones this year is optimistic, particularly if Apple insists on carrier revenue sharing without significant price cuts or new model introductions," Sacconaghi said."

Of interest is the fact that as of today, Apple announced that the company had already sold more than 10 million iPhones, well before their promised date of the end of the year. Specifically, Apple's quarterly iPhone units sold were 6,892,000 compared to 1,119,000 in the year-ago-quarter.

You might want to contact Mr. Sacconaghi to ask why his projection was both so pessimistic and inaccurate. It appears that he should be eating his words...

I live for moments like this. If I could have contacted the asshat analyst myself, I would.

Its strange (but really really funny) that all these so called informed journalists, have the misconception, that the iPhone was made by the likes of Microsoft, if that were true, then I would agree with em, talk about morons... sheesh, love ya MDN (great compilation)

Oct 21, 08 - 08:40 pm Comment from: CheekyGit

Top Gear Season 10 on iTunes!!!

YES !!!

Oct 21, 08 - 09:02 pm Comment from: Crazylegs

R2 - I'm here. Thanks for caring for my safety.

Seriously, doesn't anyone question how no iphone for two months before the 3G launch affects demand? Of course no one here.

Great quarter all the way around but trashing RIM is a joke. They are more formidable than you think and they will continue their ascent next to Apple.

Oct 21, 08 - 09:06 pm Comment from: ken1w

> Apple stating their sales goal of 10 million iPhones by end of 2008 (later amended to just calendar year 2008)!

It was never "amended." It was ALWAYS 10 million units in calendar year 2008. And it's been met with two to three months to spare (depending on when Apple actually sold that 10 millionth iPhone).

@European,
Honestly, if euros think the camera in any cellphone is decent, then they are deluding themselves by cellphone marketers. I've seen the pics from Nokia's high-end cellphones, and they are crap compared to even the cheapest digital cameras. Too much compression and too much noise, due to the small CMOS or CCD chip used. It's physics. Small chip = noisy images. In fact, because the noise can be so bad, an 8Mp chip will have no more measurable resolution than a 5Mp one. Of course, the cellphone marketers will never tell you that.

Video recording, just jailbreak your iPhone and you can have video recording. You want it, you can get it.

MMS. This will never appear on the iPhone. In the US, MMS is typically extra. Like ringtones. The wireless carriers bleed you to death by a thousand cuts. Apple uses email to send images, to avoid the MMS surcharge. I know, your feature phone doesn't have email, so you can't get pics from your friend's iPhone, but there are ways around it. I'm sure some smart european has figured out how to send iPhone pics to someone's MMS account.

All the analysts are morons.
Stevie Ballmer is a moron.
Billy Gates is a moron.
Eric Willard is a moron.
La la la la la la la la....

Oct 21, 08 - 09:33 pm Comment from: hardmanb

I guess Apple keeps on growing the number of "fanboy" customers, which will annoy many.

Maybe Microsoft should spend even more on advertising.

You're the best MDN!!
BTW was it Ed Colligan who when asked:
"how do you deal with iphone?" replied
"how do they deal with us?" ?
What is that Jackass's name?

Oct 21, 08 - 10:24 pm Comment from: What?

Thanks MDN. Those comments from idiots make fun reading.
Keep on keeping track for us.

JUst as I predicted

http://financial-alchemist.blogspot.com/2008/10/apple-to-surpass-its-iphone-sales-goal.html

No incorrect predictions from Enderle?

Or don't you have the disk capacity to hold them all?

Maybe this is the best ever article on MDN!

Way to go MDN, you guys are the bees knees!

Keep tracking these f**wits!

Oct 22, 08 - 06:18 am Comment from: Shado Control

@crazylegs

Thanks for telling us what we think, arrogant f*wit.

You stand corrected, however, as Steve Jobs did not "diss" on Rim, he complimented them. And I am pretty sure most people here would agree with Steve.

It's not about Rim, it's about Apple. Nobody here, except you apparently, cares about Rim.

Manners and brains before you comment please...

Oct 22, 08 - 08:42 am Comment from: Cubert

There's nothing like the taste of crow in the morning.

Oct 22, 08 - 08:44 am Comment from: Cubert

"The economics of something like [an Apple iPhone] aren't that compelling." - Rod Bare, Morningstar analyst, December 08, 2006

Rod Bare? Are you freakin' kidding me? With a name like that, this guy is definitely in the wrong industry.

Oct 22, 08 - 09:43 am Comment from: MobileAdmin

Hey all .. I'm here and is this really a reason to get all excited? Apple's latest device competing against 2-3 year old Blackberry finally outsold it by a .8 margin? Possible every Blackberry owner / those wanting a device are awaiting the US release of Bold, Storm and Kickstart? This is like the old fanboy days of SNES vs. Genesis. Things go in cycles and after a new product launch you always see a surge in sales.

The fact that RIM continues to sell plenty of Curve, Pearls and other models speaks to itself.

I support mobility in the enterprise and yeah RIM is the gold standard I judge any mobile device (FOR OUR USAGE) and Apple is by far lacking in the things I care about: Security, Management of devices. The fact that anyone could jailbreak a device and bypass the Exchange ActiveSync policy should be sufficient reason for ANY company to reconsider supporting this device beyond basic email access.

Now me as a consumer a jailbroken Iphone is pretty darn slick and so much fun beyond the "sanitized" AppStore drivel they push out.

This isn't a race it's the birth of a new platform.

Oct 22, 08 - 10:14 am Comment from: Crazylegs

Shado Control, are you serious? Who peed in your wheaties? Telling you what you think? Huh? I guess you didn't see that I was responding specifically to R2's comments?

What a weird vitriolic response, like you're a school yard bully looking for someone to pick on - but here you can cover your face and not take responsibility. Really weak stuff.

Oct 22, 08 - 10:49 am Comment from: iJah420

HEY!!!!!!!

How bout that Zune!!!!!

That WHAT?

You Know Zune!!!!! the iPod KILLER!!!!

hheheheheheeh

I am just so very happy for Jobs & Co. they earned IT! and its only going to get BETTER!!!

iJah420 says

@ CheekyGit

Do the shows on iTunes contain the news? I've heard they've taken that out of the US version. Do you know if that is true?

Wow sensitive or what?

It is true that some high price claims were proven right with the greater uptake on the subsidized iPhone 2.0 at the lower price points.

Also many estimated sales numbers were based on an unsubsidized sale price. Who knew Apple would see the light and market the iPhone like all other cell phones are marketed?

Not all of those iCal'd comments were made by complete idiots.

And the "Award for Dumbest" goes to...

Guys... pls vote whom we should give this award to...

When the iPod emerged in late 2001, it solved some major problems with MP3 players. Unfortunately for Apple, problems like that don't exist in the handset business. Cell phones aren't clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good." - Michael Kanellos, CNET, December 07, 2006

Someone's getting the "crow special" on the occasion: Extra rare, feathers and all...

@KenC

Those are actual sales, you don't know what you are talking about.

With their PCs, Apple only counts actual sales to actual customers, they always have done it this way and probably always will. With the iPhone they did it the same way, but with the advent of the 3G model, it is being sold to the carriers, not to the end customers. So you are right in that the phones need not necessarily be in any customers hands, but wrong that these are not "sales." They are sold phones, that the carrier cannot return or "unsell." The carrier then sells them at a discount to the consumer with the contract.

Apple's iPhone sales are all real actual sales to customers, it's just the customers have changed recently.

a couple choice naysayer quoted from daring fireball today. (He sent me to this list in fact)

I was saying from the begnning that 10m was conservitave. My estimate was 15-20 for 2008, and 40-60 for 2009. Feel free to bookmark it. I have a lot of hats, wouldn't might eating one.