MacDailyNews - Where Mac news comes first

 MacDailyNews Poll

Deal of the Day

5 Day Most Commented

Opinion Archive

Current Headlines

Latest Joy of Tech

  • Latest Joy of Tech!

MacNN

AppleInsider

Macworld UK

TUAW

MacRumors

Yahoo! Finance AAPL

iTunes Top 10 Albums

Mac OS X Downloads

Mon, Mar 15, 2010 - 04:53 AM EDT  —  AAPL: 226.60 (+1.10, +0.49%)  |  NASDAQ: 2367.66 (-0.80, -0.03%)

Analyst estimates Apple reaping huge iPhone profits from AT&T deal
Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 10:54 PM EDT

"Apple's iPhones could be far more profitable than we thought. Based on an analysis of iPhone revenue that Apple reported yesterday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates today that carrier partner AT&T pays Apple $18 per month for each of its iPhone subscribers. Over the course of a two-year contract, that's $432-per-sub payment ," Dan Frommer reports for Silicon Valley Insider.

"Assuming a $400 iPhone and a $18 monthly contribution from AT&T, Apple would record $832 in revenue over two years per phone," Frommer reports. "At Apple's current U.S. run rate of about 1.8 million iPhones per quarter, that's about $1 billion in gross profit per quarter (which will be recorded over two years)."

"This morning, AT&T said that it has activated 1.1 million iPhones. But Apple has sold 1.4 million since they went on sale in late June. Assuming Munster's new AT&T payments, 300,000 un-activated iPhones means Apple is losing out on almost $130 million in gross profit over two years," Frommer reports.

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "Investor" for the heads up.]

MacDailyNews Take: To the innovator goes the spoils. Also, it would be a mistake to assume that those 300,000 un-activated iPhones are in use as unlocked devices on non-AT&T networks as a significant portion of them could well be gifts just waiting to be given.

Conversely, if the majority of those 300,000 un-activated iPhones actually are in use as unlocked devices on non-AT&T networks, that's a nice "problem" for Apple to have as it proves the device's popularity and bodes very well for future iPhone sales success.

Bookmark and Share

Always -- Free ground shipping with orders over $50 at the Apple Store.

Reader Feedback: = registered.
Unregistered users: Feedback from multiple usernames are subject to deletion. Off-topic and posts from suspected astroturfers will be removed.

Reader feedback page 1 of 1 pages:
Oct 23, 07 - 10:59 pm Comment from: lbuschjr

@MDN:

"a significant portion of them could well be gifts just waiting to be given"????

C'mon MDN, lose the rose-colored glasses. Highly doubtful that 300,000 iPhones are already wrapped up for Christmas. Much more likely that the vast majority of these iPhones were not activated through AT&T;but instead were hacked to operate on other networks.

Oct 23, 07 - 11:02 pm Comment from: Joey

Buh-by Verizon!

Oct 23, 07 - 11:11 pm Comment from: 8R

They were all bought by M$, Moto, Nokia, Sony, Samsung and on and on.

Oct 24, 07 - 12:18 am Comment from: Shogun

I'm with lbuschjr. That statement is ridiculous. So I think I'll ridicule it:

Ah ha, MDN dropped the ball in a Take.

Didn't you just rip on Apple for stretching credulity in their "300 New Features" listings? Said something like it was overreaching and unnecessary? Perhaps even counter to the cause?

I'm just saying...

Oct 24, 07 - 12:41 am Comment from: short @ 196

short 10,ooo shares

till 171


call cramer

Oct 24, 07 - 12:57 am Comment from: UltraVisitor

I read through the 300 new features list, I was surprised that the vast majority were legitimate new features. I started counting which ones were BS - either because they already appear in another OS without apple meaningfully enhancing it, or because you can pretty much already do it Tiger. I counted 30 BS features, 270 real new features. That's not too shabby.

I'm impressed with Leopard in general. More so then any particular feature, the OS as a whole seems very polished, well thought out, and better then just the sum of its parts. I'm looking forward to this weekend.

Oct 24, 07 - 01:28 am Comment from: Gwendo

Those unlocked phones were sold to other countries (ebay!). No kidding. I personally know two people who have one in Germany. Think global!

Oct 24, 07 - 01:29 am Comment from: Tre

It's already been reported that thousands of iPhones have made their way to countries like India, where there are no current plans for an official release and they are selling like hotcakes.

Oct 24, 07 - 02:22 am Comment from: innhitman

These unlocked phones are not lost revenue. imo, they are sold to people who would not have bought if they had to use ATT. So, it's added revenue.

Oct 24, 07 - 03:27 am Comment from: Vlad

@ lbuschjr

They said a significant portion of 300k, not all 300k. Big difference.

Especially since what counts as "significant" is open to interpretation.

Oct 24, 07 - 03:32 am Comment from: mu (-_-)

magic word : "book"

Oct 24, 07 - 03:43 am Comment from: Master of the Obvious

Its all about the hardware. Thats where the money is really made. Apple cares not where the hardware lands, as long as its in the hands of a paying customer.

I think that the assumed ATT revenue to Apple is a little something to assuage the soul after dealing with the devil. Of course Apple had to deal with an established network provider to get into the cell-phone game.

Once the hardware penetrates the industry, its a wide open frontier for software and content creators. Apple will continue to reap the benefits of hardware sales. Win-Win!!

(and brilliant)

Oct 24, 07 - 04:18 am Comment from: Norwegian

In the company i work for in Oslo more than 10 people already have the iPhone. But we will all go legit as soon as somebody can offer a local subscription in Norway. So Apple is only losing revenuesharing for now.

Oct 24, 07 - 05:39 am Comment from: fenman

AT&T;'s figures do not include all those iPhones activated with a gophone contract as this is a non-standard way of activation yet is the only solution for those wanting an iPhone and not having 'appropriate' credit rating for an 18 month contract.

Oct 24, 07 - 06:39 am Comment from: Randolph Kirkpatrick

I sold 5 iPhones wholesale to unlocking shops in Bangkok. They are all over the place here. See people using them on the Skytrain all the time.

Sorry AT&T;, but there's no way I was gonna wait till this thing got here, and no way I could "roam" without spending about a million dollars a month.

And I agree, I'd go legit in a second if they'd get the damn things over here, UNLOCKED, for world-travelers such as myself. I don't usually roam, just pick up a cheap pre-paid SIM card wherever I go.

Except in the US where I pick up an EXPENSIVE T-mobile SIM card if I'm back for a while.

Oct 24, 07 - 07:08 am Comment from: Eddie Nakamura

I just came back from bangkok and HongKong, At their shopping centers, Individual merchants were selling iPhones all over and people were buying enthusiastically, at bangkok $899, At Hongk Kong $550. One mercahant told me 1000 iPhones are being sold everyday in HongKong. I think those 300,000 unlocked iPhones have been sold mostly overseas.

Oct 24, 07 - 07:10 am Comment from: Jim of D

Some of those 300K have ended up here in the Philippines. How many more in other places?

Oct 24, 07 - 07:49 am Comment from: onionhead

no news on when they're hitting australian shores?

Oct 24, 07 - 08:36 am Comment from: BlackMac

hahaha yes MDN... sure they're gifts.

You're a little too pro apple sometimes.... (clearly)

Oct 24, 07 - 09:29 am Comment from: applejuice

"short @ 196" - ever heard of a short sqeeze? No? Then just stay short, and get ready for some real pain.

Oct 24, 07 - 09:35 am Comment from: Dextroamphetamine

Don't fear the reaper. Forty thousand men and women everyday are buying iPhones.

Oct 24, 07 - 09:47 am Comment from: matt screen

Apple still gets the revenue from selling the $400 iPod/phone. Who'd have thunk.

Go AAPL!

Oct 24, 07 - 10:34 am Comment from: Predrag

Gene Munster initially estimated $8 per month from new AT&T;subscribers and $3 for existing ones. $18 means that Apple is practically eating all of AT&T;'s revenue for the data plan ($20 per month unlimited data). If this is indeed true, it is a colossal deal for Apple. If I remember well, RIM is getting about $4 per month from carriers for BlackBerries. Of course, RIM is no Apple, but $18??? This is enormous. This also means that the unlocked phone could be even more expensive than originally expected; if Apple is getting $600 (net profit, after deducting manufacturing costs) for each phone they sell, that would mean they would have to charge $800 for an unlocked device, once they make it available, in order to meet the same profit margins.

It looks like we'll be waiting for a long while before an unlocked version becomes available in the US. It was to be expected, though, considering that the AT&T;exclusive was signed for 5 years anyway.

Reader feedback page 1 of 1 pages:

Always -- Free ground shipping with orders over $50 at the Apple Store.

Add Your Feedback:

Register or Login

Name:

Email: (optional)

Emoticons | Allowed HTML Tags

Remember my info   Notify me of follow-up comments?

Please enter the "MDN Magic Word" you see in the image below: