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Let's all remember this "prognostication," OK? Something tells me that this joker's words will come back to haunt him sooner than later.

like 1% of market?

"To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company."

Why do idiot writers insist on continuing this myth? The term 'cult' implies there is no valid reason for people's admiration of the company. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Best ignored, this.

I hope MDN keeps these articles in the archive for future reference. I'm sure there are a bunch from 2001 when iPod was first introduced.

The iPhone may not make a dent but these sort of arguments never give any reason as to why, for example, non Apple fans won't buy this. It's nonsense, people who'd never bought an Apple product before bought iPod's. Why won't they buy an iPhone? It's not as if Apple is aiming to dominate the whole market.

The iPod will only appeal to Apple Fans, it's too expensive blah-blah... it won't sell blah-blah...
Other manufacturers already make cheaper music players blah-blah...

Won't these guys ever learn? Or does their MS-Paycheck make these lessons less relevant?

Tools

MW: reached: these guys have all reached a conclusion straight from Microsoft's brief.

There are about 21 million OS X users in the world.

Apple have (proabably, as of the results pending release) sold over 100 million iPods.

Therefore there are more iPod customers who use Windows than use Mac OS X.

I'd argue that Matthew Lynn is a cult, but then I'm dysnexic.

In his article, Lynn says that Apple will have a hard time getting into the UK because network companies will not want to upset a firm like Nokia by taking on board a rival phone but hang on......

So far, the naysayers have been saying that Apple will suffer because it's actually the other way round - networks hold the whip hand whilst phone manufactures have to dance to their tune on product features, marketing, etc.

The doom mongers can't have it both ways when it comes to holding back Apple so which is it to be?

I for one am excited that in six months I will purchase an Apple iphone for myself and maybe a second one for my wife. (She is more anti-technlogy than most) That being said, I also think that a company that sits around on past laurels goes the way of microstinks. These idiot naysayers like Lynn should understand that you either lead the way or get shoved out of the way in a rude manner. Let the pushing begin.

Could it be in part because Matthew Lynn is British?

Could it be that he reads the Brit Apple-hating press?

Is he part of a culture that hates Apple?

Is it because Bloomberg is a 100% Windows company?

Is he trying to please the owner of his company, Mayor Bloomberg?

Remember that Mike Bloomberg said in 1995 that the Internet was a fad similar to the truckers' CB Radio fad of the 1970's.

Could it be that the technical illiterates feel more savvy if they dump some trash on Apple?

Is it because Bloomberg is a news service for business and 99.9% of businesses are totally bound to Windows?

Is Matthewe Lynn trying to make his business readers feel good that they use Windows instead of Apple products?

Could Matthew Lynn have an agenda? Trying to get Microsoft to include him in their inner circle of friendly journalists? invited for an exclusive interview with Bill Gates? Get a free Windows laptop?

Could Matthew Lynn be some dishonest journalist?

i love these statements

from people who have never picked one up or even saw one operate in person

They're all valid points, but in isolation. I am genuinely confused why analysts or columnists can't see where this is heading. I think the iPhone has more chance of genuine penetration than TV in the home.

The only genuine risk Apple runs with the iPhone is mobile data input via it's digital keypad. If this is accepted by the population, then then we have an absolute no brainer as to where this industry is heading. Apple's patents largely revolve around the touch-screen technology and from initial accounts, they intend not to licence it but stop others using the tech. As a Nokia, Motorola, Microsoft et al how can you possibly fight a full screen device that's infinitely flexible with greater viewing real estate? Arguing on power specs, GSM, price etc. are ultimately stallers. Apple will match and beat anything out there in releases 3 and 4 when economies of scale come to the fore.

The frontline of the war will be fought on the mobile input of data. Look for FUD articles upon release stating this ("I couldn't type on the iPhone - it kept getting it wrong"). If Apple get through this barrier, it will be the connectivity to Outlook and other MS standards, here's where Google starts to pick up the slack. Look for Google's apps to start syncing with the iPhone (calendar, email, word app) in releases 3 and 4. Apple's iWork apps should integrate earlier than that though.

Apple are very very confident about the keypad, otherwise they wouldn't have taken it this far. No wonder Mr Jobs couldn't sleep. With notoriously low loyalty in the mobile market, 2 year upgrade rate and no killer apps annexed off any existing platform, there's a very real possibility that this pull in annual revenues of 20-40B, in 3-4 years time with little resistance.

iPod Halo - christ we haven't seen anything yet.

He is right! Face it, most people just want a TELEPHONE for God's sake. I probably should have said most working people. Who has time for all these features? The people who will buy this phone WILL be fanboys and gadget geeks and Apple probably will sell a bunch of them. But, not to everyday users.

"To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company. An iToaster that downloads music while toasting bread would probably get the same kind of worldwide attention.," Lynn writes. This old - just old - tired - overused, and has, so far, always been wrong. Yes there are lots of Apple loyalists, but its loyalty with eyes wide open.

As a Mac fan boy, and one of the biggest early skeptics of Apple's entry into the cell phone market, I can tell you that on first and second look at the iPhone, this is going to be at least as big as the iPod, and that's before they come out with a 3G version. If Apple comes offers a 3G version when the "phone" is actually released, Apple is going to clean up the cell market inside of five years.

As for me, I'm waiting for the annual spring time stock slump and I'm going to start buying and buying and buying, then some reinvesting, then some more buying. See you on the beach in about 15 years.

I agree it won't do gangbusters. It does WAY too much. Gadget freaks will love it but Joe Q. Public will yawn. I have no interest in it at all and I'm Apple fan.

Tomorrow will be 1 week since the debut of the iPhone. I think it will be safe to ignore any articles about it from now until it's actually in use. Anything that comes out in the meantime is really just the equivalent of turning over a compost pile.

I'll spend my time reading something that may actually add new and/or important information.

This is the most retarded argument I've ever heard.

Isn't Apple "cooperating" with a big network called AT&T;?

As for this being a "reheated version of an old product", the folks over at Dyson are making lots of money selling a "reheated"product called a vacuum cleaner for $600 a pop. People spend lots of money buying improved versions of old products every day.

He's right about one thing – the iPhone is no threat to the basic phone sale. Most people just want a phone to make calls and hold a few phone numbers.

Where he's entirely wrong is that he forgot that this is a phone with a full-fledged iPod melded to it. Now people can have their phone on the same sized device as their iPod (granted, not an 80 GB model, but still up to 8 GB). One less device to carry around with NO functionality lost.

Now throw in the PDA features, Google maps, and the other features that will be introduced via Widgets.

The companies who should be truly worried are Palm, Blackberry, Microsoft, etc. The iPhone is aimed squarely at the smartphone market, not your basic phone user. No, iPhone won't take a huge percentage of the mobile phone market, but it 's not designed to. It's meant to take over the smartphone market, which it will do.

At least until the iPhone nano comes out.

"everyday users"

"working people"

the salt of the earth, I guess . . .

ordinary folks, . . .

blue collar laborers . . .

soccer moms . . .

union card carrying stiffs . . .

Dilberts eberywhere . . .

Grandma and grandpa . . .

Men and ladies in uniform, . . .

Clerks, gofers, and peons, . . .

Third world starving . . .

don't need good graphical interfaces, . . .

don't need Macs, and Apple iPhones, . . .

give Windows to the masses . . .

to the cash register clerks and UPS drivers . . .

to the Office jockeys, . . .

and don't let Mac using college kids ruin America.

Apple was late to the MP3 party and look where Apple is today. #1

Yes, it's earnings week for AAPL and Wall Street hedge fund spokesmen are out in force spreading shortable FUD.

I wonder if ANY of these naysayers bothered to watch the keynote or read the comments of the few journalists who have been allowed access to the iPhone?

What a joke!

I'm confused. Why do these "experts" say that the iPhone will be a bust because Apple is late to the dance, but then seem to ignore that "fact" when the newest "iPod killer" is announced? No consistency here!

'To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company.'

"Why do idiot writers insist on continuing this myth? The term 'cult' implies there is no valid reason for people's admiration of the company. Nothing could be further from the truth."

Uh, from someone calling themselves Macromancer? Hmm.

I love the line about consumers not being interested in reheated things. So, then what is Vista or anything M$ makes?

Apple has never been good at working with other companies. If it knew how to do that, it would be Microsoft Corp


Oh yeah right. That is why Play for Sure is SUCH a bit hit!

What a load of bovine fecal matter. The level of bias is almost palpable.

Matthew's first draft:

Few products have been launched with such a blizzard of publicity as Microsoft's Zune," Matthew Lynn writes for Bloomberg.

"To its fourteen fans, Microsoft is more of a shipwrecked ocean liner than a company. A Zune toaster that downloads music while squirting browned bread would probably garner a few days of worldwide attention.," Lynn writes.

Lynn writes, "Don't let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the MP3 industry such as Apple Inc. and um, Apple Inc. won't be whispering nervously into their 21st century devices over a new threat to their business."

Lynn writes, "The Zune is nothing more than a luxury turd that will appeal to a few basement-dwelling freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the Zune is irrelevant."

Lynn writes, "There are three reasons that Microsoft is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market -- and why it is too early to start dumping your Apple shares."

errrr....I meant big hit.

I forgot to add, what kida turd would belive this writer?

Doh! I need glasses....

As someone who works for one of the biggest companies in the cell phone industry I can only say the iPhone introduction sparked a large, and not yet settled, internal debate on what we were doing, how we are doing it, and why we can't produce the same type of reaction when our new models are announced. Apple has upset the cart and we're looking to recover. Yeah, publicly we welcome them to the competition. But internally I know there is some concern that Apple will 'iPod' our sales over time.

I can also state that several people in my office are looking into converting our current cell phones into iPhones once it is released. Practically a heresy in a company where one is looked down upon if you aren't using one of our own phones.

It's a 'given' that Apple will upset the current market. It remains to be seen how successful they will be. I look forward to the next couple of years though.

Ah, methinks I smell the cooking of many crows for a tech media banquet sometime in the not too distant future.

That "late to the dance" crap is just that: CRAP. MonkeySoft's revered leader, BillyBoy Gates, once said of Netscape's efforts, "The internet is just a fad," and then proceeded--LATE TO THE DANCE--to realize how utterly stupid his "vision" was and developed IE.

Uh, where's Netscape now?

Late to the dance. What utter FUD.

So much venom. So little time.

Uh, wasn't Toyota "late to the dance" relatively speaking? Where's your GM and Ford dominance NOW?

I believe there is a "cult of (poor) journalists".
John

they said the same thing about iPod. With it's different versions and price points it became more than just a mp3 player. With OS X running the iPhone, it well surely become WAY more than a phone. Jusy think of the possibilities.

I expect this within 5 years:
iPhone: just what we have now $249 less once they figure in phne company discounts and such, it'll be a commodity;
iPhone Pro: runs basic applications $299;
iPhone Extreme: It's a complete Mac in your pocket $399.

Wow! With articles like this, the establishment MUST be nervous. The iPhone market is going to be "HHHUUGGEEE TOM!" (Thanks iNewt).

Peace.

I'm a fanboy! My religion is the cult of the Macintosh!
And only a few of us will buy the iPhone.
A few dozen MILLION of us that is.

Amazing, I more and more realize that there are indeed cultists: anti-Mac cultists who bash whatever comes from Apple with whatever nonsense they might think about. They immediately label as Mac fanboy whoever says: I use Mac because it simply is better and better experience. Mostly from people having years of experience in other platform but the anti-Mac cultist immediately react "BS, not true, kool-aid drinker, Steve Jobs distortion reality field" and other idiocy.

Guys, there is indeed a cult out there and larger than anyone could think.

Matthew Lynn gets it.

Wake up cultists! Come out from the darkness of Apple's shadow. Come over to the light side and the promise of freedom only Microsoft can deliver. Save yourselves with Vista and Zune—you'll be much happier.

Apple's appeal is limited to morons who don't get it. Only a fool would get one of those iPod things and dupe themselves into thinking it's a seamless, simple to use system for enjoying music and video. What a joke. The iPhone blatantly steals the worst features of the Zune and Apple markets it as some breakthrough technology. Typical. So the 3 or 4 Mac users out there will waste their money on Apple's also-ran phone. Whatever.

Your potential. Our passion.

It's 2001 all over again. Think about the introduction of the iPod. Apple came out with something that was ahead of the pack. The price was a bit high for ordinary folk ( but eventually it came down).

Analysts didn't get it..."no one wants this...there's plenty of this product already...it's too expensive..." The Apple Death Knell Counter was clicking higher and higher.

We all know how that story ended.

Can lightning strike twice with iPhone? I don't know, but neither do these doomsayer analysts who get paid to figure it out. Jobs quoted Gretzky and I think some of these dudes should pay attention to the quote if they want to keep their job. "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it's been"

Yet defensive products don't usually work -- consumers are interested in new things, not reheated versions of old things.

-- Uhhh, isn't that exactly what MS is all about? Reheating old technology (see: Zune, Vista, XP, Win2000, WinME, and so on). On the other hand, what is "reheated" about stuffing OS X in a brand new device that holds hundreds of new patents capable of doing more than any "smart phone" on the market, in a much easier to use, vertically integrated way? So it plays .mp3's like the iPod. That feature is shared, not reheated. Besides, who is Apple "defending" against with this device? Does the iPod need defending? Come on now....

Microsoft recently zuned it digital music partners. This writer thinks Apple should follow THAT example.

The fact is, everything Steve Jobs said about the current "smart phones" was correct. They are complicated and hard to use. Those are the devices designed for the "gadget freaks." The design philosophy appears to be, the more buttons we can squeeze onto it, the better. And listening to voicemail sequentially is a pain. And entering names, phone numbers, and addresses onto the phone is a complicated process that I don't bother doing too much.

Apple made computing easier with the Mac. It simplified digital music with the iPod. The iPhone does the same things for mobile phones. That's why it will sell better than the 1% target Apple has set. But even at 1%, Apple will sell 10 million devices, and that's a successful product.

Peter J says, "Can lightning strike twice with iPhone? ..."

I agree with your post Peter, but it isn't lightening that's striking, its a well aimed, fully loaded marketing canon with an explode on impact shell that's going to take the cell/PDA market at least as fast as the iPod took the "MP3" market, and that's being pessimistic.

F A M O U S L A S T W O R D S ???

Dont feed the trolls.

Zune Tang gets it.

But fortunately it can be cured with antibiotics.

Freddy the Pig: "A few dozen MILLION of us that is."


Make sure you put your pinky up to the side of your mouth, Dr. Evil style when you say that!

Read articles like this one very carefully, kids...

You can hear the terror, dripping from every line. This is not an opinion article, this is damage control, plain and simple.

"Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry."

This is exactly the kind of line you write because you want someone to bring it up years from now. And if the iPhone flops and goes away quietly, no one will. But if it becomes the hinge that the entire industry turns around on, then you can bet lines like this will be brought up again and again. Remember this one?

"There are no significant bugs in our released software that any significant number of users want fixed." - Bill Gates, 1995

or how about this gem...

"To create a new standard, it takes something that's not just a little bit different; it takes something that's really new and really captures people's imagination — and the Macintosh, of all the machines I've ever seen, is the only one that meets that standard." -Bill Gates, 1984

"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it's been"

For the Zune
I skate to where the Zune has been, it's easy just follow the brown skid marks.

something just occurred to the anti-creative cretin.

The anti-creative cretin wonders if Apple will have to pay Creative a license for the navigation system on the iPhone.

The anti-creative cretin begs an intelligent response from the rabid Mac cultists who have been hypnotized by Steve for so long...who eat raw potatoes and think that they're apples....who use Macs and think that they just work just because they do....who like the fact that they can get work done without being bothered by the OS like some little hyperactive cretin boy whose about 3 minutes from having a seizure.