“Don’t expect Apple to buy Netflix this year with the billions of dollars it repatriates – despite that widely shared analyst report this morning that offered almost even odds of such a deal,” Mark Sullivan writes for Fast Company.

“The new GOP tax bill, signed by the president in 2017’s final days, gives Apple the option to bring its huge $250 billion of cash held offshore back to the U.S. at a far lower tax rate (15.5% versus the 35% in the old law),” Sullivan writes. “A couple of Citi analysts, Jim Suva and Asiya Merchant, believe Apple may use a big chunk of that repatriated money to buy Netflix. They give the deal a 40% chance.”

“Apple won’t bring its entire cash hoard back to the U.S., a source with knowledge of the matter tells Fast Company. It will bring back only about half in 2018,” Sullivan writes. “My hunch is that Apple will continue using its largesse in Hollywood to buy or create new video content. Because the company’s services business is already doing so well, and growing as hoped, Apple will feel no pressure to leap to the top of the subscription video market with an acquisition of Netflix. It’s much more likely that Apple will use its newly repatriated money to buy back stock and reward shareholders with dividends.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Yup.

What is unique about Netflix? A handful of TV series are not worth $40 billion. Apple is perfectly capable of taking on Netflix without having to buy them, deal with integrating their employees, etc. Until Apple actually buys Netflix, we’ll keep saying that Apple will buy Netflix for the same reason they bought Palm. — MacDailyNews, May 27, 2016

Another $125 billion in buybacks would be seismic.MacDailyNews, November 18, 2016

SEE ALSO:
Citi analysts: 40% chance Apple will acquire Netflix now that President Trump’s corporate tax cut has been passed – January 2, 2018
Citi: Apple 40% likely to acquire Netflix, 5% likely to acquire Tesla – May 5, 2017
Analyst: Apple could double dividend, buy Netflix with repatriated cash under President Trump’s U.S. corporate tax changes – March 17, 2017
No, Apple doesn’t need to buy Netflix – February 22, 2017
Why Apple should buy Netflix or something – February 22, 2017
Apple’s arrogance said to contribute to struggles to make big deals – February 15, 2017
Apple hires Amazon’s Fire TV head to run Apple TV business – February 8, 2017
Why Apple should buy Disney – January 26, 2017
Apple’s new TV app shows just how painfully behind Apple is – December 14, 2016
Apple approached Time Warner about possible merger before AT&T talks – October 21, 2016
Apple’s Eddy Cue: Nope, we don’t want to be Netflix – October 20, 2016
Google signs up CBS for planned web TV service to debut in early 2017; close to deal with 21st Century Fox – October 20, 2016
Bernstein: Apple buying Netflix would be a waste of $50 billion – October 5, 2016
A chance for an Apple buyout offer as Netflix stumbles – July 19, 2016
Here comes á la carte programming – without Apple – July 13, 2016
Should Apple absorb Netflix? – July 11, 2016
Apple to buy Netflix? – May 27, 2016
Should Apple buy Netflix for $53 billion? – May 10, 2016
Apple declines to place bid on NFL Thursday Night Football – March 3, 2016
Why Apple should buy Netflix – January 7, 2016
Apple TV 4 is a beta product and, if you bought one, you’re an unpaid beta tester – November 5, 2015
Apple made ‘audacious bid’ for Top Gear trio of Clarkson, Hammond and May, but lost out to Bezos’ Amazon – September 1, 2015
Why Apple should buy Netflix – April 21, 2015
Why Apple should buy Netflix – March 26, 2014
Jim Cramer: Apple should buy Twitter or Netflix to spur growth – February 7, 2013
The Netflix buyout battle: Apple vs. Time Warner – April 10, 2012