“In the final week of December, average iPhone X supply dramatically increased for the fourth consecutive week to 96% for U.S. Apple in-store and online lead times in 8 countries remained essentially unchanged at 3 days as of Jan 1st,” Gene Munster writes for Loup Ventures. “We still believe iPhone X will reach global supply-demand equilibrium in mid-January. This means the Mar-18 outlook will have a small bump up from December iPhone X demand getting pushed into the Mar-18 quarter.”
“The bigger story is that the Street is underestimating the positive ASP impact from the iPhone X over the next few quarters, which should play out as a positive to the Apple story,” Munster writes. “Our FY18 overall iPhone ASP is $740 vs. the Street at $705.”
“The mix of iPhone X will exceed Street expectations and have a higher ASP of $740, up 13% y/y compared to the Street ASP of $710,” Munster writes. “Our ASP estimate is based on a 30% mix of iPhone X and iPhone 18% mix of iPhone 8 (iPhone 8+ and iPhone 8).”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: As we’ve stated all along since Apple revealed their 2017 iPhone lineup in September, the iPhone 8/Plus are tough sells against iPhone X and the iPhone X will represent a larger portion of the mix than most are projecting and, therefore, Apple’s iPhone ASP will be higher than expected.
You know, we’re not convinced that Apple will be overrun with iPhone 8/Plus preorders. Yes, use the App Store app [to preorder], in case, but it might be an easier night than you think. In fact, Apple just might have a problem on their hands, judging by the early results of our online poll. It’s early, but we expect Apple to market the living you-know-what out of the iPhone 8/Plus because, next to the iPhone X, it’s looking like a tough sell. — MacDailyNews, September 14, 2017
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Poor iPhone 8 Plus. You’ll be the best smartphone on the planet for all of 42 days. — MacDailyNews, September 19, 2017
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This is pretty much the universal reaction to what would have been the world’s best smartphone had the iPhone X not existed. Again, Apple may have a problem on their hands if they’ve made too many iPhone 8/Plus units and are not prepared to market and promo them like crazy. Since the U.S. carriers are already offering iPhone 8/Plus promotions, Apple seems to have planned for the expected reaction to iPhone 8/Plus with iPhone X looming over them. — MacDailyNews, September 19, 2017
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
I see many iPhone Xs now as I travel. I see fewer 8s, but more of both than I anticipated. I have spoken to people about why the 8. For many it was a carrier deal of some sort, some price, others like the design, especially the 8 Plus, regardless of price.
i would think having overstock on hand in 96% of stores after the holiday buying season would be bad news but . . . Apple!
More than a few iPhones available = BAD NEWS FOR APPLE
Not enough iPhones available = BAD NEWS FOR APPLE
It’s always a lose-lose situation for Apple. I’ll never understand why there is always a problem both ways. There have to be plenty of companies that ship lots of product and much of it ends up in some landfill.