Gartner: Apple’s Mac returned to growth in Q416

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 72.6 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, a 3.7 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2015, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. For the year, 2016 PC shipments totaled 269.7 million units, a 6.2 percent decline from 2015. PC shipments have declined annually since 2012.

“Stagnation in the PC market continued into the fourth quarter of 2016 as holiday sales were generally weak due to the fundamental change in PC buying behavior,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner, in a statement. “The broad PC market has been static as technology improvements have not been sufficient to drive real market growth. There have been innovative form factors like 2-in-1s and thin and light notebooks, as well as technology improvements, such as longer battery life. This end of the market has grown fast, led by engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market driven by PC enthusiasts is not big enough to drive overall market growth.”

“There is the other side of the PC market, where PCs are infrequently used. Consumers in this segment have high dependency on smartphones, so they stretch PC life cycles longer. This side of the market is much bigger than the PC enthusiast segment; thus, steep declines in the infrequent PC user market offset the fast growth of the PC enthusiast market.”

Ms. Kitagawa said that although the overall PC market will see stagnation, there are growth opportunities within the market, such as the engaged PC user market, the business market and gaming. However, these growth areas will not prevent the overall decline of the PC market, at least in the next year.

Four of the top six vendors experienced an increase in worldwide PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2016 (see Table 1). The top three vendors all increased their global market share in the fourth quarter. Lenovo maintained the No. 1 position, as the company experienced shipment increases in North America and EMEA, while Asia/Pacific and Japan continued to be challenging markets.

Table 1: Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q16 (Thousands of Units)
Gartner: Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q16 (Thousands of Units)
Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.
Source: Gartner (January 2017)

HP remained in the second position, and it has recorded three consecutive quarters of shipment growth. HP secured the top position in PC shipments in the U.S. and EMEA, growing faster than the regional averages.

Dell also registered three consecutive quarters of shipment growth in 4Q16. Dell continued to place PCs as a strategic business segment in commercial and consumer markets during 2016. Asus suffered the steepest decline among the top six vendors in the fourth quarter of 2016. Asus has been shifting its PC strategy more toward the high-end market, which will allow it to maintain better profit margins. Gartner analysts said the falling shipment volume could be the cause of this strategy shift.

In the U.S., PC shipments totaled 16.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, a 1.3 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2015 (see Table 2). Five of the top six vendors in the U.S. PC market experienced a shipment increase in the fourth quarter of 2016. However, this was offset by a 20.9 percent decline in the Others category, and a 48.3 percent decline in shipments by Asus.

“Similar to low-key back to school sales in 3Q16, big sales events, such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday and holiday sales are no longer effective marketing opportunities for PCs since PC purchases are generally driven by a ‘need,’ rather than ‘want,’ motivation,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “PCs are not a preferred gift item any longer, as consumers gravitate toward other consumer electronics, such as virtual personal assistant (VPA) speakers, virtual reality (VR) head-mounted devices, and wearables. Vendors and channels did not have high expectations for the holiday PC sales, so the marketing campaigns remained relatively quiet.”

Table 2: Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q16 (Thousands of Units)
Gartner: Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q16 (Thousands of Units)
Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.
Source: Gartner (January 2017)

PC shipments in EMEA surpassed 21.9 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, a 3.4 percent decline year over year. PC shipments to the consumer market were driven by good Black Friday sales in Western European countries, such as the U.K. and France, especially on traditional notebooks, ultramobile clamshells, the hybrid form factor and gaming PCs. Gartner’s early estimates also show PC shipment growth in the business segment, led by Windows 10 deployments during the fourth quarter.

The Asia/Pacific PC market totaled 24.8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, a 3.9 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2015. The PC market was affected by two major events. First, the demonetization of the Indian currency in India led to weaker-than-expected consumer PC demand. Second, the success of China’s 11.11 (Singles Day on 11 November) online shopping event gave a boost to consumer notebook sales.

For the year, worldwide PC shipments totaled 269.7 million units in 2016 (see Table 3). 2016 shipment totals were at the same levels as shipments in 2007. Market consolidation escalated in 2016 as the top three vendors (Lenovo, HP and Dell) accounted for 54.7 percent of worldwide PC shipments in 2016, up from 51.5 percent in 2015.

Table 3: Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2016 (Thousands of Units)
Gartner: Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2016 (Thousands of Units)
Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.
Source: Gartner (January 2017)

These results are preliminary.

Source: Gartner (January 2017)

MacDailyNews Take: Thank you, new MacBook Pros!

SEE ALSO:
Phil Schiller: Apple has more orders for MacBook Pro with Touch Bar than for any other professional Mac notebook ever – November 2, 2016

18 Comments

  1. So what would Apple have to do to get the iPad Pro deemed a PC apart from ‘bribing’ more than Microsoft and its affiliates. I mean if they added a traditional file system perhaps or traditional usb ports or what. The days when it was simply a device that absorbed media as the critics and Gartner put it, is long gone. So what would need to be added to force their inclusion I wonder, probably they will always find something to use to exclude them at least for the foreseeable future as no doubt they don’t want to stir things up in ways their ‘Masters’ would not like to keep the status quo ticking over. .

    1. The iPad Pro would have to run a full desktop OS, have a standard OSX file system and also have the requisite ports most desktop PCs have. That’s why the Surface Book Pro is deemed by Wall Street as an Apple killer. Apple says consumers don’t need anything like a Surface Book Pro because it’s better to sell two separate products instead of two products rolled into one. My opinion is Apple should let the consumer decide which is more suitable.

      Wall Street and the tech critics are definitely backing Microsoft’s strategy. They believe Microsoft has the right idea and Apple is off-course and doomed, as usual. Microsoft’s share price will continue to rise while Apple’s share price goes down. Some companies at least try to deliver what they think consumers might want. Other companies follow their own path even if they’re wrong about what consumers want. The only way to tell is tally up the product sales and see which company wins.

    2. What devices/computers get lumped into what categories by groups like Gartner is pretty much irrelevant.

      The real problem for Apple is both the industry and general public is starting to (and in some select areas has for over a year now) believe that the Windows based companies (including Microsoft itself) is now much more innovative than Apple. The belief is that Apple is being incremental in almost everything. Microsoft and those companies that implement Windows on tablets through servers are the future.

      Apple needs to break that mindset before it becomes even more set than it was in 1993 through 1998.

  2. People should refer to a decline in the “Windows PC market” not the “PC market” since the Mac is not in decline.

    Sadly, Mac sales would be growing even faster if Apple kept its specs on MacBook Pro, Mini and Mac Pro up to date all the time. Wake up Apple/Cook – PC Wars 2.0 is yours to win. Mac dominance would help sell more iOS devices too.

      1. Perhaps you are unaware, but Mac sales were increasing virtually every quarter for several years (despite Windows PC sales drops) until Apple stopped regular spec improvements.

        1. Yes and no. Mac sales for the last 4 years have avoided declining, but sales increases weren’t strong every quarter either.

          This is a great chart:
          https://barefigur.es/companies/apple/mac/

          From 2002 through 2011, despite major macroeconomic turmoil (9/11/2001 aftermath, 2009 financial market implosion), Mac sales had strong growth. Since 2011, the overall growth has been flat, with every model release seeing a sales spike followed by a sharp drop thereafter.

          One doesn’t have to think too hard to see why Mac sales for the last 5 years are so soft. Every time Apple releases a new model, there is a sales bump. If the new model offers great value and capability, then the sales tapers slowly off. If the model takes away user flexibility, the sales after release drops like a rock. So now that Apple is offering fashion first models and waiting 3+ years between substantial updates, it is entirely predictable that sales are just not growing consistently as before.

          For those who care only about revenue instead of long-term health: the last year has show steadily declining Mac revenue. The 2016 MBP will obviously stop the slide for a quarter, but Apple seriously needs much more new user-friendly hardware to stop the overall trend.

  3. So… According to Gartner (whom too many people believe wholly, including corporate buyers) Apple’s sales fell more than industry average for all of 2016 and Dell (DELL of all companies!) was the only major player that had growth over the completed year.

    And, in the 4th quarter, worldwide Apple grew less than Dell or HP even though Apple finally came out with a MBP, selling lots to those Mac the faithful that really had to upgrade much older MBPs.

    It does raise the question of what would happen if Apple were to start shipping current state of the art MBs & MBPs by the end of this quarter and current state of the art Mac consumer desktops (Mac mini, iMac) by the end of this quarter and a then current state of the art Mac Pro by the end of the second quarter.

    IF shipping NON state of the art MBPs can get Apple back to growth (even though slower growth than some other big players) just think of what Apple’s Mac sales would be like if they actually shipped leading edge stuff again.

    A pessimist could easily say that 2017 has the potential to look like 1995 all over again.

  4. Imagine the improved Mac sales growth with new iMacs and proper pro-designed (as in tower or mini-tower) Mac Pro’s that people really want to buy? (Along with a killer Apple 5K or 8K large monitor and 4K Apple TV’s.)

  5. I believe that if Apple had been serious about Mac and MARKETED them (like through the Win 8 fiasco years) Apple would have significantly larger market share with a lot more revenue (including Apple’s growing ‘Services’ category which includes App store and Apple Care Warranties) . Apple has not run many Ads — there aren’t even cheap Web ads — just the ‘bulb’ ad at the end (first Ad for years).

    (note to flamers who also say ‘neglect Mac is OK’, Macs make more money than iPads and TWICE that of the ‘Other Products ‘ Category that holds Watch, iPod, Apple TV, accessories etc )

    (the other day I was talking about Cheese Graters MPs etc in another forum I got these flamers giving me idiotic confused replies . Then I realized that none of them have seen a Mac Pro and did not realize that when I said ‘Cheese Grater’ I was talking about a TOWER mac — there are entire generations of Tweeter bots who have NEVER SEEN a TOWER mac or realize that you can UPGRADE GPUs and add cards etc … they don’t conceive such things exist . These people believe that HIGH END programs are SUPPOSED to STUTTER, brushes SUPPOSED tO LAG as they have NEVER used power GPUs — a Mid range PC card can have 5 Times the power of the Macbook’s mobile integrated graphics . Sad. )

  6. Apparently Apple isn’t interested in the traditional desktop computer business anymore. But prior Apple Mac users who require the power of a desktop still need that power. So, why wouldn’t Apple license / sell the MacOS-X operating system to other computer manufacturers and enable them to develop their PCs around the MacOS thereby providing users a choice – XX Company’s desktop with Microsoft’s OS or with Apple’s MacOS (i.e. let the consumer choose which she/he prefers)? I’d buy that!

    1. Other mature companies realized that at some point, it needed separate divisions in order to sustain the agility to offer different market segments the products they needed. I don’t think Apple needs to split off development in a licensing arrangement to outside companies, but it is definitely long past time that the fashion designers at Apple be kept away from the Mac. Apple needs to hire a Mac Pro management team to bring the Mac platform back to life in professional markets. The current leaders have squandered opportunity after opportunity to own the personal computer market.

      “But it’s a mature and shrinking market” the beancounters at Apple are saying. BS. Apple was taking sales away from Windows for years until Apple stopped improving its Mac hardware and started going whole-hog toward iCloud rental and iOS consumer stuff. In less than a 18 months, a competent design team could release half a dozen Mac models that would shoot up Mac growth rate into the double digits. Only mismanagement stops Apple from progressing.

  7. Just imagine if there was new Mac Pro’s, Displays, iMacs, Mac Mini’s, iPads and Apple TV4k available this past Christmas quarter. Wait a minute. Tim, WHY did that not happen?????

    NOT impressed with Tim Cook.. get rid of them!
    Sign Here:
    https://www.change.org/p/apple-board-of-directors-remove-tim-cook-as-ceo-of-apple
    The lack of managing the talent and product cycles, release dates and inventory, marketing and strategy is WHY he must be replaced immediately.

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