“Though Apple is still showing shipment delays on iPhone 7 Plus orders — and Jet Black iPhone 7 units — noted KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo infers early buzz around Apple’s latest flagship smartphone is flagging, and as such believes overall shipments have peaked,” Mikey Campbell reports for AppleInsider.
“In a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider, Kuo backs up his peak iPhone shipment prediction by pointing to immediate availability in many global markets,” Campbell reports. “In particular, the 4.7-inch iPhone 7, which accounts for a bulk of Apple’s annual iPhone sales, is for the most part in stock around the world.”
“Kuo says Apple is seeing lower than expected demand due to a lack of ‘spec surprises’ in the 4.7-inch model. Further, improved delivery estimates for 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus units, which quickly sold out after the phone’s September launch, suggests slowing demand,” Campbell reports. “Kuo said he expects iPhone suppliers to revise down shipment forecasts by 5 percent to 15 percent in November to December. The analyst updates his overall iPhone component shipment timeline to 80-85 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, down from a previous estimate of 85-90 million units.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote back in June 2015:
Ming-Chi Kuo is solid on predicting Apple product moves… but we’re not convinced on the accuracy his unit sales estimates, which require a completely different set of tools, methods, and talents than those used to, for example, discover Apple’s choice of case material or display sizes for the next-gen iPhone.
—
The accuracy of Ming-Chi Kuo’s predictions regarding Apple’s choice of specs and materials is very solid, but his ability to forecast product unit sales remains in question. — MacDailyNews, October 3, 2016
Is this surprising?
Apple has done little to update their phones, so after the fanboys have theirs, it’s natural for sales numbers to drop.
Maybe next year will be year of the iPhone where we get something fresh and new. What they are pushing now is a joke.
When teenagers have no valid retort within an argument, “whatever” comes out. When site trolls denigrate Apple, “fanboys” is the tool du jour. Both are infantile and pathetic, jambo. Enjoy your LG/Samsung/Android knock-off . . . and hope the pilot on your next flight doesn’t call you out for settling for less.
Didn’t know how to spell hyperbole I presume. Would have saved you and us 5 minutes of our lives we will never get back.
Well jambro, the votes are in and it looks like you’ve been elected asshole of the week.
All of this is predictable. We are seeing an Apple that is truly without Steve Jobs. Cook and company only have had so long to ride on Jobs’s coattails.
iPhone 7 is nothing groundbreaking. I have an iPhone 6 Plus and I have zero reason to upgrade. I have a great camera. I have NFC/Apple Pay. I have effecticely the same screen. Etc.
What I want is a new design that eliminates bezels to make the device smaller with the same screen size. I want wireless charging. I want better battery life. A better screen in the daylight. None of this is in the 7. It’s basically the same phone.
No need for an Apple TV either: it’s a deluded mess. No need for a watch that is trying to be a computing platform but is bankrupt because the screen is too small to make any sense; battery life too poor to even function well as a watch.
And the new MacBook Pros? So I now have to pay an extra $500 for one with the Touch Bar… and the hardware just isn’t that compelling over my 2014 rMB Pro: not buying it.
Apple is currently living in a deluded world of the past; there is no clear strategy of what they’re doing and where they’re headed. It’s like a bunch of grey hairs, once titans of the tech industry, slowly losing touch.
I’m excited about the Surface Studio PC. I can’t believe I’m excited about a Microsoft product. Times… they are a changin’…
Same old crap, ad nauseam. Just buy the Microsoft junk and crawl back under your rock.
I sure like my iP7+/256 Jet Black ……best device I’ve ever owned.
Sure, slowing demand. Explains why when I ordered my 7+ 256GB two weeks ago I was stuck with a six-week wait.
The headline is that “demand has peaked.” An alternative explanation for reduced wait times is that supply is increasing.
Besides, you expect peak demand in the weeks immediately following the release of a new iPhone. This kind of blather is meaningless.
I actually have been following Ming’s predictions about Apple unit sales and his record is truly awful. He has missed by 2-3 million iPhone shipments on several occasions. He tends to be bearish, but his bullish predictions are no better. I agree that the has better spies for actually unit specifics, but his unit sales record is awful. He gets the bounce from his design predictions being accurate, but the unit sales predictions are just reading the same tea leaves as everyone else.
I ordered a 7+ JB 128 weeks ago and am still waiting. I’ve tried ordering for in-store pickup but there’s no stock in stores either. They are definitely still supply-constrained on this model, and quite possibly others.
It took me 5 weeks to get my JB 256 7+. Got it last week.
As to sales, doesn’t Apple find out what their best sellers are, and then ramp up those lines once they see that? That is not a decrease of sales necessarily, but more of balancing the production lines?
KUO has offically become a Stock Manipulator……
Ah, the Hedgies are trying to push AAPL even lower for a better entry before the next quarter blow out numbers, nothing more or less!
So these reduced orders for components are nothing to do with the reduction that happens at this time every year then?
The factories operate at peak capacity from August onwards to satisfy the initial demand from launch to Christmas and then drop down to ‘normal’ levels from late December onwards. Furthermore, the factories pretty well shut down for holidays during the Chinese New Year.
Maybe a super-smart analyst might one day be able to work out why a company with a stunning capacity for supply chain management might decide to adjust component orders in advance of the seasonal variations that have been seen to happen every year.
So if it’s sold out everywhere..it’s bad for Apple.
If it’s in stock…it’s bad for Apple.
Got it m
Peaked my ass!