“UBS’ Apple analyst, Steve Milunovich, uses Google search data from over 20 countries to estimate iPhone demand. While he used information starting in the December 2008 quarter to develop his model, he has been publishing the Evidence Lab estimates since the December 2014 quarter,” Chuck Jones writes for Forbes. “In his latest survey it is indicating demand for 62.9 million iPhones, which is significantly above the 50 to 52 million the Street is projecting.”
“The Street, or average sell-side analysts estimates, projects Apple’s March quarter revenue to come in at $52 billion vs. the company’s guidance of $50 to $53 billion. To get to the mid-point of guidance the company will need to sell 50.5 million iPhones and to get to the Street’s $52 billion it will need to sell about 52 million when paired with reasonable estimates for Macs, iPads, Watches and Services,” Jones writes. “At 62.9 million iPhones Apple’s revenue would be over $60 billion, significantly above guidance and expectations.”
“Except for the first quarter that Milunovich published his estimate (December 2014) the initial Evidence Lab’s projection has been too high. I’ve used Apple’s iPhone sales adjusted for channel inventory and for the past four quarters the Lab’s estimate has ranged from being 3 to 7.8 million too high,” Jones writes. “On a percentage basis it has been 4.9% to 16.8% too high. If you modify the 62.9 million survey result by these percentages the ‘true demand’ would be between 52.3 million and 59.8 million.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: If Apple could bang out stellar iPhone numbers during this quarter’s especially “tough compare,” the rest of Apple’s fiscal year could be quite strong indeed.
Does it really matter how many phones they sell when analysts always insist “Oh sure it’s a much bigger number than we predicted and they’re huge successful with it but it’s gotta go way down NOW. Yeah? Right? Right??? Failure and a spiraling death throe just has to kick in now, it has to. Eh heh. Right? I said am I right???!”
More likely, they will start to inflate how much better Apple is doing, and then when sales are better than expected months ago, but not as good as the new inflated estimates, everyone will say Apple has disappointed.
Yeah that too. Apple – always somehow in fail or “disappoint” mode no matter what. The disappointment however is all on them. How many times must the sky NOT fall for them to see their embarassing folly? (Of course such strategy’s reflecting market manipulation is another matter.)
In this day and age, the sport has become sticking it to the analcysts. We bet against them. We release big cathartic joy when they prove their incompetence, yet again. We enjoy insulting them and pointing out their click-bait and hit-whoring siren songs. I suspect such joy will again be ours next week. But let us meanwhile hold close and gently the suspense and anticipation, the journey to Apple’s latest redemption.
😎-ommm
Too late, Derek-san. The analcyst brigade have spoilt the fun for the rest of us by expropriating anticipation, surprise, and delight as their own little squeeze toys which they whuffle and honk with malicious glee like playground bullies, sure of their immunity to poetic justice or to investigation by the SEC.
Someday after they are all dead a textbook will be written that teaches that such generalisations as the Law of Large Numbers, and the Principle of Regression to the Mean, are unsupportable assumptions because of the example of Apple, Inc. — Disruption, Inc. might be a good title for the book, just as Creativity, Inc. was an ideal title for the book about Pixar: another company which embarrassingly enough continues to produce blockbusters. “The streak has to end sometime!” Maybe in Las Vegas, it does. In business, maybe things are a little less randomly inevitable than the pundits believe.
We seriously need to collaborate on my current story series. You’d add so much more to their language and sharpness. But they’re still on simmer for now.
As for Pixar, they have had one film that I consider a loser. That was ‘Cars 2’, which literally put me to sleep, and I didn’t care. It was not awful, but it was a mess and disappointing. I equate it with the film version of ‘Horton Hears A Who!’ which also put me to sleep. Naps are great! But not when you’re paying to sit in any particular chair.
Oh, Gawd. This will ruin Katy Huberty’s reputation. And all the other WS idiots who followed her lead.
I’m betting Kuo will release a note tomorrow saying Aople sold 40 million iPhones for the March quarter. Then all the Apple rumor sites will proclaim Kuo to be the God of all analysts.
It doesn’t matter. The naysayers always win. In this case, the economy is weak all over the globe, but they need to keep singling Apple out as having it the hardest. It’s freaking stupid. Sure Tesla looks strong, but Musk is basically carrying that company around on his back. I have far more respect for his SpaceX company than I do Tesla. SpaceX is more exciting than electric cars.
“SpaceX is more exciting than electric cars.” Yes, because it is a step closer to removing us from a planet dominated by Losers. I hope I make it onto the last ship out… but if not, I will work for food…
MF won’t get a ride off because trolls will not be allowed to board.
Yes……Looks like Kuo has been tainted by Samsung
payola. He is a contrarian on several levels and hopefully his gets him a good drop kick
in the teeth. I also question the announcement by Samsung
of a sales beat with the new 7 phone that received mediocre reviews – Looks like desperation time to me hoping the sheep will buy into the disinformation.