“With an aggressive nine country launch into a user base of more than 400 million iPhone owners, the Apple Watch will likely represent the largest new product category launch, according to sales, in Apple’s 38-year history,” Neil Cybart writes for Above Avalon.
“Given my opening weekend sales expectations, the Apple Watch launch may be upwards of 12x as large as the iPad launch,” Cybart writes. “I am establishing calendar year 2015 and 2016 Apple Watch unit sales estimates of 19 and 33 million, respectively.”
Cybart writes, “I am establishing a 3.5 million opening weekend sales estimate based primary on the list of launch countries and what I consider to be a realistic amount of available supply.”
Much more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Cybart gets it. Apple Watch is going to so thoroughly change things that listening to the naysayers bray causes us to shiver in anticipation of the deluge of schadenfreude to come.
I think the pre-orders will be even more than that. 😃
I really have no insight on how many of these things they will sell but will present my own perspective. I’m a tech guy and not terribly fashion-conscious and I’ve been wearing an old watch for a few weeks now that I really haven’t worn in a long time and I like the convenience of have a watch on so that I don’t have to look at my phone for the time. The watch also has various other functions which I find useful (count-up timers and count-down timers and alarms).
I do not really like the band choices on the Apple watch right now as they aren’t good for working out (I like something soft and breathable in a band) but someone will make a band that I like eventually.
I also spend a lot of tie on my laptop and take the watch off when I’m using the computer because the watchband interferes with typing due to the palm-rest. So that’s a bit of a problem. It’s solvable with an external keyboard but I don’t always have that option.
So it’s a device that I don’t need that may be potentially very useful so I’ll head down to the store when they have them available and when they aren’t jam packed in the watch area and try one out. To me this is a device that you have to play with, even if you’re not going to buy one.
The Apple TV announcement this morning was actually more exciting to me.
Major rival smartwatch butt-hurt by Apple. That would be a fantastic start and it would probably shut up nearly 50% of the Apple haters, skeptics an naysayers out there. It will also put Android Wear at a fair disadvantage. Apple’s retail stores have to give Apple a huge sales advantage over any other smartwatch manufacturer. The Apple bears will be out in force looking for any little crack or slip-up to ruin the AppleWatch party.
Can’t wait to see what sort of “gate” scandal gets started this go-round.
For those who hanker for the good ol’ days, one of my favorites was the iPad (3) ‘overheating’, which Consumer Reports jumped on like a kitten to a laser beam.
We all know there’ll be *something* drummed up.
I seen two “supply constrained” articles already.
Because people have to try on the watches, other than the Sport model, I think launch weekend sales will be lower. I’ve already budgeted for 2, but won’t make the final decision until we’ve seen and tried them on.
Hum, bigger than iPad launch – That’s pretty big, time will tell ….
It is amazing there are still lines for the iPhone, seven plus years later but I doubt we will see lines for the Watch, hope I am wrong!
iPad’s launch was successful, but it “only” sold about 15 million during the calendar year of its launch in 2010. Apple Watch will surpass that easily. It will surpass 15 million (counting sales and waiting list) by the end of June.
I’ve been getting back into the exercise routine and wearing a heart rate monitor watch (and chest strap). Its gotten me used to having something on my wrist again and I must say that I’m excited about what the Watch will do to enhance working out.
Will be really happy to loose those stupid chest straps, what a pain.
The real question is will people be able to get into the stores and actually try them without having to wait forever? Granted some people will, but Apple would do its customers a favor by have an appointment system so I don’t have to fight people to try one on. Otherwise, I would say screw it, my time is more precious than standing around for 2 hours trying to squeeze in and try it out.
It’s a lot faster playing around with a phone or iPad than a watch. You might want to try on a few bands and both sizes of watches and play around with them on your wrist and this could take a while. People typically spend some time in a jewelry store when looking around at watches. So I think that selling them in the store in huge volumes will be harder than with Apple’s other products. Of course there will be many people that will pre-order and just buy them without trying them but I think that there will be a lot of people that want to try before buying.
Maybe to save time in ‘fitting’ they could already release the bands with a plastic mockups (weighted appropriately for each model) for Apple Store patrons to try..
Be wary of analysts making up huge numbers, then crucify Apple when they don’t sell that many.
One of their favorite BS lines to use.
I originally posted months ago that I wouldn’t take off my Rolex. However, with the more I read, the m
More eager I become. I think 3.5M on the first weekend is light! I won’t even guess how many more.
I’m enjoying the last days of wearing my 3 Movados, 1 Tag Heuer, 1 LeVian, and 1 Rolex. They can’t do what AppleWatch can do. The wifey and I are both in. Can’t wait to do a fitting and commit to our perfect timepieces!!