“As anyone who follows the tech market closely can attest, marketshare predictions rarely play out as anticipated,” Yoni Heisler writes for TUAW. “Normally it’s easier to let comically vapid predictions pass on by, but when I stumbled upon a widely dissmineated Business Insider article that was picked up by both the AP and Yahoo Finance, I figured it was time call BS on the outlets that refuse to take IDC predictions with the requisite grain of salt. The article in question has a typically linkbait-esque headline, titled ‘The iPhone 6 Had Better Be Amazing And Cheap, Because Apple Is Losing The War To Android.’”

“I’ll give you all a few seconds to finish rolling your eyes,” Heisler writes. “Now the basis for the article is an IDC research report which anticipates Apple’s share of the smartphone market in 2014 will fall from 18% down to 14% while Android’s share will increase from 78% to 80%. Looking even further out, IDC expects iOS marketshare to drop down even further by 2018 on account of growing Windows Phone sales.”

“It’s helpful to go all the way back to 2011 and see what IDC believed the 2015 smartphone market would look like,” Heisler writes. “In 2011, IDC’s 4-year projection put Windows Phone marketshare at 20.9%. During the fourth quarter of 2013, Windows Phone sales occupied a 3.2% share. That’s a huge miss, but not nearly as egregious as their prediction that BlackBerry in 2015 would enjoy a 13.7% marketshare. Today, IDC’s marketshare forecast barely touches on BlackBerry as the handset maker’s marketshare is now, by IDC’s own estimation, at 0.6%. A lot can happen in four years.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote on May 28th:

Yeah, um, about IDC’s predictions:

IDC: Windows Phone to pass Apple’s iOS by 2016 – MacDailyNews, June 6, 2012

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