According to a recently published mobile phone forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, worldwide smartphone shipments will reach a total of 1.2 billion units in 2014, marking a 23.1% increase from the 1.0 billion units shipped in 2013. From there, total volumes will reach 1.8 billion units in 2018, resulting in a 12.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2013–2018.
“What makes smartphone growth so amazing is where the growth will be taking place,” said Ramon Llamas, Research Manager with IDC’s Mobile Phone team, in a statement. “Smartphone shipments will more than double between now and 2018 within key emerging markets, including India, Indonesia, and Russia. In addition, China will account for nearly a third of all smartphone shipments in 2018. These – and other markets – will offer multiple opportunities to vendors and carriers alike, but the key will be balancing affordability with expectations.”
On a worldwide basis, IDC expects the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones to reach $314 in 2014, down 6.3% from the $335 ASP in 2013. From there, ASPs are expected to reach $267 by 2018. While these prices point to a definite decline, users still expect top-notch experiences regardless of what smartphone they purchase.
“Until recently, low cost has equaled poor quality in the smartphone space,” said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a statement. “Given the competition at the high end, vendors like Motorola are trying to skate to where the puck is going by offering extremely affordable devices like the Moto E, which offer a ‘good enough’ experience that will suit the needs of many. This goes to show that components that were used 2-3 years back in high-end smartphones are still sufficient in many aspects, and ultimately will allow vendors to come to the table with viable low-cost solutions.”
Operating Systems
Android: Android will undoubtedly remain the clear market leader among smartphone operating systems with share expected to hit 80.2% in 2014. Looking forward, IDC expects Android to lose a minimal amount of share over the forecast period, mainly as a result of Windows Phone growth. Android has been, and will continue to be, the platform driving low-cost devices. ASPs of Android smartphones were well below market average in the first quarter of 2014 and are expected to be $254 for full year 2014, dropping to $215 in 2018. Growth of Android phones is expected to outpace the market in 2014, rising 25.6% with volume just shy of 1 billion units.
iOS: Despite rumors of a larger screen iPhone, IDC expects share of iOS to drop from 14.8% in 2014, to 13.7% in 2018. Apple continues to be strong in mature markets, where devices are heavily subsidized, but emerging markets are expected to drive overall market growth, and appetite for smartphones in these markets is at the sub-$200 level, significantly below Apple’s selling prices. iOS volumes are expected to hit 184.1 million in 2014, growing to 247.4 million in 2018. Growth of 20.0% this year will slowly drop to year-over-year growth of 6.1% in 2018, more in line with overall market growth.
MacDailyNews Take: Apple does not chase market share. Apple develops world-class products that delight users. One Apple customer is worth more than a gaggle of those who settle for poor imitations of Apple products.
Windows Phone: Windows Phone continues to slowly build its global footprint, and growth is expected to outpace the market throughout the forecast period. In 2014, volumes are expected to grow 29.5% over 2013, reaching 43.3 million shipments. This momentum is expected to continue into 2015, reaching 65.9 million units, continuing on to 115.3 million in 2018. According to IDC, it is somewhat unclear what Microsoft has in store for its recent acquisition of Nokia, but an additional positive is the number of new OEM partners recently announced. At Microsoft’s Build conference this year, the company announced a number of key features that had been visibly absent from the platform in the past. If more OEMs get behind the platform, and device portfolios continue to scale the cost spectrum, Windows Phone can continue to gain momentum.
BlackBerry OS: IDC continues to reduce its BlackBerry forecast across the board with volumes expected to drop 49.6% in 2014, equivalent to 9.7 million units. Looking forward, volumes are expected to continue to decline to 4.6 million units in 2018. The question of whether BlackBerry can survive continues to surface, and with expectations that share will fall below 1% in 2014, the only way the company will be viable is likely through a niche approach based on its security assets.
Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by Region, Shipments, Market Share and 5-Year CAGR (units in millions)
Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, May 28, 2014
*Forecast data
Worldwide Smartphone Average Selling Price (ASP) by Region and 5-Year CAGR (figures in $USD)
Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, May 28, 2014
*Forecast data
Source: International Data Corporation
MacDailyNews Take: Yeah, um, about IDC’s predictions:
IDC: Windows Phone to pass Apple’s iOS by 2016 – MacDailyNews, June 6, 2012
Related articles:
IDC: Apple iPhone to maintain high value, margins, and market share through 2018 – February 28, 2014
IDC data shows two thirds of Android’s 81% smartphone share are cheap junk phones – November 13, 2013
More proof that Android is for poor people – May 13, 2014
Apple’s iOS dominates in richer countries, Android in poorer regions – March 25, 2014
IDC: Apple iPhone to maintain high value, margins, and market share through 2018 – February 28, 2014
Why Apple’s iPhone keeps raking in the majority of mobile phone profits – March 19, 2014
Apple dominates with 60% share of mobile phone profits – March 18, 2014
Android has the most unit share, but Apple dominates profit share, making more money than all Android smartphone makers combined – November 15, 2013
Android users poorer, shorter, unhealthier, less educated, far less charitable than Apple iPhone users – November 13, 2013
IDC data shows two thirds of Android’s 81% smartphone share are cheap junk phones – November 13, 2013
IDC: Android worldwide smartphone market share passes 80% – November 12, 2013
Apple Maps makes killer comeback as Google Maps loses access to world’s most desirable mobile customers – November 12, 2013
Android phones 3 times more likely than Apple iPhones to have been bought at discount store – August 22, 2013
CIRP: Apple iPhone users are younger, richer, and better educated than those who settle for Samsung knockoff phones – August 19, 2013
Twitter heat map shows iPhone use by the affluent, Android by the poor – June 20, 2013
Apple’s iPhone generates more in carrier fees than rival smartphones – January 30, 2013
Unsurprisingly, survey says Apple’s iOS is highest priority among mobile developers – January 23, 2013
People buy more Android phone units and do less with them vs. Apple’s revolutionary iPhone – November 14, 2012
Study: iPad users more likely to buy – and buy more – online than traditional PC users – September 29, 2011
iPhone users smarter, richer than Android phone users – August 16, 2011
Yankee Group: Apple iPhone owners shop more, buy more, remain more loyal vs. other device users – July 20, 2010
iPhone owners more likely to pay for digital content – November 26, 2009
Study: Apple iPhone users richer, younger, more productive than other so-called ‘smartphone’ users – June 12, 2009
Apple iPhone users buy many more apps, surf the Web much more than other ‘smartphone’ users – March 27, 2009
Any iCaled notes on how accurate previous IDC forcasts have been?
This one from Gartner (in 2011) actually predicted that Windows Phone would surpass iPhone by next year. 🙂
Now, that’s as funny now as it was in 2011.
Similar to Ken1w’s here’s IDC’s prediction from 2011.
The funny thing is, the article attempts to portray this scenario as unfavorable for Apple. However, if you accept their numbers, Apple will still maintain a healthy percentage of much larger (~50% larger) annual unit sales in 2018. Furthermore, the estimated 247M iPhones that will be sold in 2018 will represent a large fraction of high end sales. If the Android ISP drops below $200, as predicted, and Apple’s iPhone ISP remains close to its current level, then Apple’s 13.7% unit share of the smartphone market would represent u to 3x as much in terms of revenue share – roughly 50%. And, as we have observed, Apple is pretty darn efficient at turning iPhone revenue into profits.
So the story appears to be that smartphone unit sales will increase by roughly 50% from 2014 to 2018, and that Apple will collect approximately 50% of smartphone revenues from 13.7% marketshare in 2018, likely resulting in very high profit share relative to the rest of the smartphone industry. That sound a great deal like Apple’s current situation, and I don’t see that as a negative in any way.
IDC couldn’t predict the temperature of there own bath water even with a thermometer.
There the industry paid whore of market survey firms.
iCal’ed. I actually think it will be around 20% myself.
The ability to project a market as volatile as “Smart Phones” 4 years into the future at fractions of a percent accuracy is laughable. The idea that anyone would take these projections seriously is equally laughable. Predict a general trend, maybe. Predict 13.7% market share and you have lost all credibility.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_precision
http://www.logicallyfallacious.com/index.php/logical-fallacies/86-fake-precision
It’s an old one.
Is IDC one of these shops that is in the market of “changing public perception for it’s clients through analytics”?
Yes
Yep they even say so on there website. They will change public perception for anyone paying enough and make there products look better than anyone else.
Translation. We will lie our asses off to make your product look good for dollars.
The stock has gone up too much too fast.
Haters and shorts are busy bribing to put bogus negative news out there !
I predict IDC will be bankrupt by 2017. The beleaguered state of RIM, Microsoft and Samsung has left them struggling for income and will do or say pretty much anything for an extra dose of cash right now. Especially google cash because it’s a massive bottomless pit of gold generously donated by highly gullible investors.
Her crystal ball must be cracked.
2 years ago these clowns predicted Windows Phone would surpass iOS by 2016. Seriously.
Predicting anything in any market 4 years out is pure unsubstantiated hog wash. They have no clue as to what the growth economies of today will be like in 4 years, let alone the global economic effects.
And their prediction is that in 2018, Windows Phones sales will be just under 1/2 of iPhone sales? Bwahahahaha. WTF is all I can say about that.they couldn’t give away that many.
These people got stoned at lunch, then came back and wrote this. Not worth the pixels it takes to display it.
The one prediction they left out (as will likely still be true) is that Apple in 2018 will still be making 75-80% of the smartphone profits and on roughly twice as many phones per year. That’s the only data that really matters.
What does IDC stand for? I think it’s: “I Don’t Count” or “I’m Dumb & Clueless” or “Idiots, Dumbasses Corporation”
I like MDN take on these idiots. lol
“MacDailyNews Take: Yeah, um, about IDC’s predictions:
IDC: Windows Phone to pass Apple’s iOS by 2016 – MacDailyNews, June 6, 2012”
The problem with this “research” is that anything with Android is being grouped into the same “smartphone” category. Cheap Android phones are glorified feature phones. Also, “Android” is SO fragmented that it should not be considered ONE platform.
Apple does not really care about these market share numbers. Apple cannot (and does not want to) make 100% of the world’s smartphones. Apple makes 100% of smartphones that run iOS, a “real” platform with minimal fragmentation, cohesive integration with hardware, and a high-level of protection against malware. The portion of the market that is “Android” is mostly garbage.
That’s exactly right. All of the Android phones really ought to be counted as iPhones, since that’s what they pretend to be.
Could someone tell me what the definition of a smartphone is that IDC uses? How can ASP’s of about $150 to $350 be compared to Apple’s $650?
Folks should not disparage forecasts such as these. A lot of chickens and goats gave their lives so you could have this information.
interesting how when AAPL stock starts doing well, these guys emerge with a report like this. . . interesting
Yes the timing is interesting. It may not have much effect in the run up to WWDC. Apple could come out of the keynote on fire with the stock moving accordingly. But if Apple fails to meet exaggerated expectations it might give the negative spin a little push.
What hedge traders want is a big swing either way. Uncertainty creates opportunities for these guys. Stock value up or down, they don’t care. These traders make money either way. They are IDCs true customers.