“His tweet [illustrated] Apple[‘s] growth question in one image,” Jackson writes. “It shows Apple’s trailing 12-month revenues in billions. And what it shows is that it has hit the top of the S curve. It’s mature market time, even though we all think of the smart phone market as new and dynamic.”
“Note the bottom left graphic which shows how iPhone’s revenue contributions have exploded over the last four years for Apple from a relatively small amount to a juggernaut,” Jackson writes. “For Apple’s stock to start growing again, it has to fix the Ben Evans flat line of the S-curve problem. Of course, as everyone has been talking about, that will take new products.”
“But new products alone which aren’t blockbusters will still make it tough for Apple to keep boosting its stock price,” Jackson writes. “And heaven forbid if the new Apple products are duds. That flat line may even be at risk of contracting if that happens.”
Read more in the full article here.