The report argues that these new contenders will take away important niches – focusing on cost innovation and utilising local knowledge – in synergy with the next generation of consumers. This may begin the slow decline of the current global OS elite.
In terms of smartphone shipments, Apple and Samsung will continue to dominate the global market, shipping 17% more smartphones in 2018 than were shipped globally by all vendors in 2012. The new Juniper report found that Apple and Samsung’s global smartphone shipments will hit nearly 800 million by the end of 2018, compared with 677 million last year.
Juniper’s latest report, Smartphone Futures: Differentiation Strategies & Emerging Opportunities 2013-2018 forecasts sustained growth for Apple in the emerging markets over the forecast period, with Apple expected to announce a diversification in its product portfolio shortly. It notes that this brings Apple closer to the Samsung model of catering to diverse set of markets utilising different models which will maintain the current global dichotomy.
The new report noted that significant growth is expected across emerging markets such as the Indian Subcontinent and China. These areas will see particular growth in the Ultra-Economy and Economy sectors, with heavily localised handsets. Slower growth is forecast for the Ultra-Premium and Premium smartphone sectors, but only if they can offer clear differentiation within a crowded market.
Other Key Findings Include:
• There will continue to be a lack of short and medium term diversity within the OS market.
• The Average Selling Price of a smartphone will fall as new lower income demographics are exploited.
The complimentary ‘Smartphones: Ultra-Premium to Ultra-Economy’ whitepaper is available to download from the Juniper website together with further details of the full report here.
Source: Juniper Research Ltd.
MacDailyNews Take: Predicting 5 years out in a fast-moving market like this, not to mention with major patent litigation cases yet to be resolved, is a fool’s errand. For all anybody knows, within half a decade, Android smartphone sales could collapse from the weight of its own fragmentation and patent infringement issues.