“Now that Apple Inc.(AAPL) has broken out above the 200-day, downtrend, moving average and broken above the psychologically important 500 price, is it ready to target resistance at $508 and $580?” Tom Lloyd Sr. asks for MarketWatch.
“The announcement of Carl Icahn buying a stake has finally enabled price to break out of a trading range, confirm a double bottom that is in place on the daily chart and provide the first buy signal coming up from a bottom, namely the break above the 200-day moving average,” Lloyd writes. “The big question is can price hold above the 200-day and will it move still higher as Icahn does his thing?”
Lloyd writes, “My short answer is that it is targeting $580 and will have pullbacks in price between here, at $500 as I write and the target or resistance level. Nothing goes straight up and a pullback in the market will put a dent in the Icahn move up. Of course new product announcements will propel price higher and we can expect some before the holiday season so important to a retailer such as Apple.”
Read more in the full article here.
Getting closer to breaking even on my first AAPL investment.
Stick with AAPL. I bought my first shares at around $15. 🙂
Nice…..I wanted my parents to purchase a bunch in 99 or so when they were around $12. I bought in around 2003 or so for $64. Stock split and went up and I had to sell half, I can kick my self now. Wish I would have purchased double at 64 and not sold half! I took 5000k and put 2500 in Apple and 2500 in Sirius. Wish I would have did the whole 5k in Apple!
According to my brokerage account, the unrealized gain on part of my AAPL investment is 3,554.39%. I wish I had been MORE bold back then… 🙂
Unfortunately, there is NO way to get a 35x return on AAPL at this point. If AAPL went up 35x from today, Apple would be worth about $16 trillion! That’s several times more then the total amount of money in the world… I’d be VERY happy with another 3.5x.
Maybe in the very short term
I hate this sophomoric kind of chart-worshipping technical analysis. Stocks don’t have hopes and dreams. They don’t target resistance points. TA dorks do. These guys geek out on things like 200-day moving average crossings. But what’s magical about 200 days? Why not 199 days? Or 250 days?
AAPL will go up and it will go down, but it’s not going to be reading the TA blogs or the charts.
And neither am I.
Precisely. Apple’s stock isn’t “targeting” anything – it’s a bunch of digits in a computer somewhere.
Apple’s stock rise is due to Icahn revealing he bought a bunch. So people say, “Gee, if Icahn bought a bunch, he must know something I don’t, so I had better buy too!”.
Demand goes up and supply goes down, so price goes up. That’s all, folks!
Never mind this short term analysis stuff… 🙂
There’s an interesting longer-term “trend” if you take a look at AAPL price on a chart that goes back 5 years. At the the start of 2009 (only 4-1/2 years ago), AAPL dipped below $100 (actually below $80 at one point). Since then, I can draw a nearly straight line, averaging out the short-term ups and down, until the start of 2012, when things go a bit crazy.
That straight line conveniently goes through $200 at the start of 2010 and $400 at the start of 2012. So, if I extend that line to the start of 2014, it would be at $600. And I can easily see AAPL at about $600 at the start of 2014.
If that happens, all of the crazy movement up above $700 and back down below $400 is mostly irrelevant for the long-term investor. AAPL is simply extending its previous steady climb up from under $100 in 2009.
Of course, as a percentage, $100 to $400 is MUCH better than $400 to $700, but Apple IS the most valuable publicly-traded company in the world these days. Going forward, AAPL moving up $100 per year on average, while paying healthy dividends, would be an exceptional return on my investment.
Plus look… Even during that “crazy” 2012 movement that everyone thinks was SO bad for Apple… start of 2012 – about $400, start of 2013 – about $500. It follows that straight line.
Therefore, my totally “not a financial analyst” prediction for AAPL price at the start of 2014 – about $600. 🙂
There’s a technical analyst that CNBC has trotted out every once in a while who did the same sophisticated analysis as you. Mostly they brought him out to pour cold water on the highs Apple was reaching but you could argue that this analysis at least factors out the crazy swings and gives you a more rational look at where Apple is heading. My guess is that we’ll see 600 around the beginning of the new year.
If Apple can manage to sell 40-45 million iPhones over the holidays, I see no reason why it couldn’t get to at least $575. Hopefully there is some China Mobile deal in the works. Apple seems to be gearing up pretty heavily for production so there may not be any shortages. The Chinese consumers may like those colorful low-cost iPhones if they’re priced reasonably. They look very distinctive.
When it comes to Apple’s share price I really don’t have a clue because I see no way to figure it. It doesn’t seem to have anything to do with the actual value of the company but it does have something to do with how many iPhones are sold, but how many iPhones are enough to move the share price. I’m not asking for the heavens but $575 to $600 would be fine with me by the end of the year. That amount would put Apple’s P/E ratio solidly in the 13 range. All I can do is hope and maybe the hedge funds will stop hating on Apple so much. There’s still this constant diminishing smartphone and tablet market share thing that just never seems to stop. It’s a real annoyance.
I know exactly why the stock wouldn’t go to $575 – Wall Street traders and analysts and all of their little games, insider manipulating, baseless rumors, and ignorant reports.
Of course, they could also drive it up to $800 for all of the same reasons.
Then there’s the collusion factor . . . .
if I predict that Apple stock will hit $300,609,102 can I get a headline?