Smartphone shipments will account for 50% of all handset shipments by 2014 and become the largest handset segment in the world, according to the latest market forecasts by market intelligence firm ABI Research. By 2018, 2.4 billion handset shipments with smartphones will account for 69% of all handset shipments. LTE handsets will account for 35% of all handset shipments and 50% of smartphone shipments in 2018.
“Barring an unlikely collapse in Samsung’s business, even Apple will be chasing Samsung’s technology, software, and device leadership in 2013 through the foreseeable future,” says senior analyst Michael Morgan, in the press release. Since 2010 Samsung has grown its smartphone market share from 8% to over 30% in 2012; meanwhile Apple’s market share is expected to peak in 2013 at 22%; remaining flat through 2018. While Samsung’s rise has been on the back of Android, which accounts for 90% of Samsung’s smartphone shipments, the future smartphone OS landscape will likely be heavily influenced by the importance Samsung places on the elements of its OS portfolio of Bada, Tizen, Windows Phone, and Android.
Just as handset OEM focus has driven the success of the Android ecosystem, LTE smartphones, and handsets will also experience a rapid increase in shipment penetration as handset OEMs battle to keep their handsets relevant to mobile operators. As LTE handsets commonly feature the latest in screen and application processor technologies, LTE handsets will also benefit from the demand of consumers looking to acquire a premium smartphone regardless of its WWAN connectivity.
“With the successful launch of the iPhone 5 and competing LTE handsets from other leading OEMs, LTE handsets will be found in the hands of many consumers who do not even have access to LTE networks,” adds senior practice director Jeff Orr, in the press release. “Apple is demonstrating to the market that LTE is not the only reason to buy a premium handset.”
While LTE will be the fastest-growing WWAN technology in history, the growth in smartphone shipment penetration will be driven by the rapidly growing low-cost smartphone segment. ABI Research forecasts that smartphones with wholesale ASPs under $250 will account for 62% of smartphone shipments by 2018.
These findings are part of ABI Research’s Mobile Handset Markets Database, which includes files detailing smartphone and mobile handset shipments, forecasts, and market share.
Source: Allied Business Intelligence, Inc.
MacDailyNews Take: One more for the ol’ iCal:
“Apple will be chasing Samsung’s technology, software, and device leadership in 2013 through the foreseeable future.” – Michael Morgan, ABI Research, January 17, 2013
Michael Morgan is delusional.
maybe the dates will not be correct, but for Apple to out-tech the entire smartphone industry, year in year out, is a huge task for Apple and probably just not doable.
I’d like to see Apple put more energy into AppleTV, a sector that still languishes. It could be their differentiator.
“…for Apple to out-tech the entire smartphone industry, year in year out, is a huge task for Apple…”
Not really. Those other folks are waiting on Apple to invent something.
All these analysts seem to believe they are so good at predicting the future.
If they are that good at it, instead of writing articles…they should be picking Saturday night’s lottery numbers.
It’s pretty sad if investors really believe this sort of stuff. I figured they’d have to be pretty stupid or gullible. They’ve already seen what happened to the BlackBerry and Windows netbook dominance predictions and yet they’re willing to put their money on this guy’s far into the future prediction of Apple’s fate in the smartphone industry. I honestly don’t get it. Seriously, anything can happen between now and then and in the smartphone industry things change so rapidly that it’s hard to tell six months in advance. I guess Apple shareholders are just unlucky that there are so many pessimistic Apple prognosticators always willing to spout their knowledge of the future.
Samsung had basically one good year in the smartphone business yet now these know-it-alls are saying that Samsung’s smartphones are the future for years. Just like that. It’s like they’ve never heard of one-hit wonders. It’s true that past performance doesn’t guarantee future success but the same goes for both Apple and Samsung, so why give Samsung the nod of future success. Apple has the most money and the most loyal customers. I don’t see why Samsung suddenly has the edge. I also find it hard to believe as large as the smartphone consumer base is that only one company can thrive at the expense of all others.
I’ve been a Mac user for 25 years and an investor for about the last dozen. I’ve read similar fools predicting Apple’s fate that whole time, and they’ve never been right. When I was buying the stock they were all saying the company was going out of business! They always make the mistake of thinking the product array will not change and no new breakthroughs will be coming. Apple has defined the sector ever since their first computer and everyone else just copies and steals. The only way this guy’s prediction comes true is if Apple stands still, which I doubt will happen.
Make product someone wants.
Sell it to them at enough profit to keep on doing it.
Keep on doing it.
ABI Research proves they don’t know what they’re talking about when they say things like “Apple will be chasing Samsung”.
But, as an AAPL investor I see these types of articles as great news. ABI research is basically laying out a pessimistic outlooks for Apple. The worldwide smartphone market is still growing very rapidly, and people will continue to replace their devices every 2-3 years. If Apple just simply maintains 22% of that market, they stand to make a fortune. (On top of the incredible fortune they already have in the bank.)
And if Apple holds on to ~20% of the market they will continue to make ~80% of the profits. That’s a great place to be!
Really? These idiots seem to think they know 2 to 5 years down the road. Yet, have know idea what is happening this year or next.
• Samsung sells hardware. Not their OS and not their servers.
• Just how many billion dollar server farms has Samsung built? Apple has 1 done and 2 that have been reported on being built on our west coast and China. (Other server farms on other continents may not have made the news yet.)
• Apple is powering these server farms with fuel cells and solar power to test out what they need to do in location that have poor power options to be able to work through those brown outs around the world.
• etc.
Samsung brings nothing to the table without massive outside support.
Another poor bastard that doesn’t know the difference between 60% of the market share with 18% of the total cell phone profits and 24% of the market share with 68% of the total cell phone profits.
Wow, I didn’t know human can predict the future 5 years down the road, very impressive.
ABI ( another butthead idiot) !
“Michael Morgan is delusional.” ??? No, likely just very well compensated. I continue to be amazed at how naive most readers seem to be. Just ask yourself: how do analysts make money? No need to adduce rank corruption, just floods of orders for reports if the right kind of material is churned out, as in wink, wink.
Please make it stop. I don’t want to believe that over and over again, the lowest forms of life delude and feed upon the rest, in an abstract mockery of H. G. Wells’s Morlocks and Eloi in the year 802701.
Hannahjs, you have to admit that the Morlocks had good taste!! Some of the Eloi were seriously beautiful! I wouldn’t have minded snacking on one!!! (figuratively speaking of course!)
Yup, i’Cal that dick.
Let’s think these ABI numbers through for a moment (keeping in mind that this is all just analyst BS). ABI is predicting that Apple will maintain 22% (over 1/5) of the global smartphone market share for the next six years. In addition, Apple will predominantly be selling premium LTE smartphones with the highest profit margins. Why should we feel bad about that?
Digging a little deeper, ABI anticipates 2.4B handset shipments with 69% (1.656B) being smartphones. And Apple is predicted to sell 22% of those smartphones, or 364.32M iPhones. I don’t know what the iPhone ASP will be in 2018. However, assuming $600 per unit, those 364M iPhones translate to roughly $219B in revenue. Using Apple’s typical gross profit margin of ~40%, that is around $87B in gross profits. Again, I fail to see why we should feel bad about the prediction that one company – Apple – will maintain over 1/5 of the global market for smartphones with smartphones predicted to represent 69% of all handset shipments by 2018.
Any other technology company would consider this type of forward projection to be miraculous, and their stock would rocket to unimaginable heights. For Apple, apparently, this is a disappointment. lol