Here are some of the questions to this week’s Live Q&A chat from TradingWithCody.com [Cody Willard] along with a few emailed questions from Marketwatch The Cody Word readers.
Q: Cody, as we all know the investor sentiment can outpace any technical patterns. We have been repeatedly hearing about double top in case of AAPL and this pattern will lead to tremendous price decline. Though we know that AAPL fundamentals are intact, do you think that there is change in investor sentiment for the bear term trading?
Cody Willard: Freudian slip – “Bear-term trading?” I just don’t think that the value of AAPL’s stock price and direction thereof can ever be successfully navigated using some lines on a chart of its past trading. If I had a dime for everytime a technical analyst told me that AAPL’s historic descent from $7 to $700 was over along the way…well, that’d be a huge pile of dimes to go along with those huge gains in AAPL that they missed while they were fretting about their pictures.
Q: Happy New Year, Cody. Was just wondering if you had any short term trades in mind for the debt ceiling/sequester train wreck that’s coming in two months.
Cody Willard: Here’s my initial thoughts about the prepackaged hype over the next debt-ceiling/fiscal-cliff/austerity crisis that’s coming. Has the market finally learned to look past this nonsense? For all the weakness and panicky headlines in the markets during this last manufactured crisis/resolution, there wasn’t a true panic of the sort we’ve seen with the repeated euro crisis panic cycle. I couldn’t believe that the reporters and pundits were already trying to rescare the world into another cycle of tax/fiscal/entitlement negotiations. Other than traders/the powers-that-be tanking the markets into that next cycle of hype, there’s nothing economic or meaningfully political in the actual bill that will again at some point be passed by the Republican/Democrat Regime and will be full of all kinds of new corporate welfare and subsidies just like this one was. There will be no meaningful recovery to our economy or our society until the banks and bankers are restrained and prosecuted for their crimes and the entire financial system reformed and that ain’t ever gonna happen with the Republican/Democrat regime in power.
Much more in the full Q&A here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Ellis D.” for the heads up.]
Analysts are having a hard time tracking the real revenue. Or, they are keeping the good stuff to themselves.
I think Cody Willard meant to say “…historic ASCENT from $7 to $700…”
It’s earnings, grab your ass with both hands because it will be interesting. It’s no time for the timid and weak. And it’s going to be as much about the projections going forward as it is on how well they have just performed in the first quarter. It seems that most analysts and fans believe they have done well in the first quarter. I believe that lack of product to sell will hurt them a little. But I believe that overall it will be a very good first quarter. However, that’s not what earnings reports are all about. You need to know what a company is going to do in the future. What they think they can do. And they are obliged to tell the truth. That will be the tricky part. Apple may run up before earnings but I’d be very careful about holding through earnings. Take the emotion out of investing. Never fall in love with a stock. Love your iPhone but love your money even more. Remember it’s your money. If AAPL drops like a rock after earnings Apple will not make up the difference in the money you have just lost. Apple is not your best buddy. Invest with your head, invest wisely. Be careful.
I have pondered the “lack of product to sell” and it may not be so. Apple is selling in more places that the year before and releasing new revised products all around the world faster than ever. It may just be spread out around the world more than we have seen before. I am sure we will again hear, “We would have sold more if we could have made more.” I would love to know the magnitude of the back log year after year. What other company is stating the with what will be about a billion and a half in the bank, they could not get enough product made to match the orders.
Lost sales are lost sales. I don’t believe that all of those lost sales catch up at a later point. Opportunity lost. Many of those sales will go elsewhere. You have to make hay while the sun shines. You are correct, they are selling more product in more places but that still doesn’t negate the fact that they would sell more if they had more product available. In fact it makes it even worse. The more places you have to sell your product the more potential buyers you have. Obviously. So the more lost sales. And the amount of money they have in the bank has nothing to do with product availability and sales. That is another issue completely. And what other companies do as far as their sales compared to Apple matters not either. What matters is what Apple can sell and what Apple can generate in revenue. When you can’t meet demand for product that means that people want what you’re selling regardless of the competition at that point. That translates into lost sales. Opportunity lost. That cannot be denied. That is a given fact. Whether or not those sales are made later can never be verified. There is no way to do that. That too is a given fact. This is Apple earnings. Not the competitions earnings. Every sale matters every sale counts. I think they did well but they could have done better if they would have had enough product available. That too is a given fact. Obviously.
@GM
So are you saying that Apple only had the same amount of product as last year to sell in MORE places this year.
Tim Cook is the master of inventory control.
I think the Apple team with Tim Cook at the top figured out that they would need to have much much more product to sell this year based on growth, previous years’ demands and the increase in their sales market.
Could they have made more and sold more … that’s what they tell us every year. “We are selling as many as we have.”
I think that is what we will learn on January 23
Reality is that the FUD / government / tax selloff still took off 25% of the $705.07 peak. It is better than the half slashing from 4 plus years ago. However, AAPL grows when the government clowns aren’t center ring at the circus.
In the end, Apple is growing much faster than the stock value and many more billions will be in the bank. AAPL’s P/E of 12 will not be valued at 8 or 6 P/E and AAPL will rise! At some point, Apple will have to go private or someone else will use Apple’s cash to buy Apple the company. Stupidity has it’s limits!
Actually, I’d argue when AAPL dropped by half 4 years ago (for no reason related to AAPL fundamentals), it was the best thing that ever happened.
I buy my socks when they’re half off — why wouldn’t I buy my retirement at clearance prices?
I would like to see them do something with the cash. I’m not saying use it all up but it does seem to be a bit of a waste to have that much cash on hand. Does seem to be that they are mismanaging their cash supply. At some point enough is enough and you’re wasting the rest. A lot of it is offshore but still they should do something better than what they’re doing now. I think Twitter would be a good purchase. A nice increase in the dividend seems to be very appropriate also. It would not only benefit the shareholders but the share price might increase at the same time. And it’s not like that wouldn’t be nice right now.
Stop thinking short term, where’s the onshore fab plant or LCD plant get to it Apple, some of your Asian suppliers are becoming unreliable. That’s where the money needs to go.
AMZN was up today and AAPL got hammered. There is no way to evaluate the insanity of todays stock market.Its absolutely absurd. Apple makes more money than any company in history and they are about to report the most profitable quarter in history but their stock will get hammered because they may only grow at 30% this year.
AAPL gets hammered by the FED sponsored banks washed with FED QE funds and then deposit their AAPL stock manipulation gains by depositing and sharing trading gains with the FED then Congress.
there has to be limits on physical production . i had to wait a month for my i phone 5 to get here (preorder and then a delay)
there is no way i went to an android phone i just waited my turn . Apple will make as much as they can given the limits of the world we live in . only so many bodies and so many machines . to fault a company selling millions of units a week for not selling billions is absurd . i heard an advert on the radio to buy one android phone and get 4 free . thats the company i would worry about. the cash pile will grow and the new dividend will help me add more shares while all you panicked “investors” fret about why apple could not have a billion phones in stock on day one. we are lucky apple does not really price the available phones according to demand not price point . i have yet to hear serious discussion on the precent of profit apple wrings out of the money to be made in the market i think it is over 75% that impresses me more than the number of free phones from someone else sitting in a drawer somewhere (we know they arent surfing the web)