“Apple investors aren’t going to like it, but it behooves them to consider “Can a Leopard Change its Spots,” Paul Sagawa’s critical analysis of the company’s competitive position vis a vis Google, Microsoft and Amazon,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. “Sagawa, a former analyst at Stanford Bernstein, now covers technology, media and telecom for Sector & Sovereign Research in Stamford, CT.”
“Posted Nov. 19, the first trading day after Apple’s share price hit a nine-month low, his doomsday view is a bracing tour of the mindset of the traders who knocked $187 billion off the company’s market value in eight weeks,” P.E.D. reports. “‘Apple is at a crossroads,’ Sagawa begins. ‘After dominating the first decade of the millennium, the revolution that Apple started is shifting against it. The iPhone, with its single annual update and super premium price, has been run down from behind by a pack of rivals with segmented product ranges, 6 month product cycles and aggressive price points. Android phones now outsell Apple 5 to 1, and the iPad is on the same path, exacerbated by rivals willing to subsidize device sales in pursuit of e-commerce and advertising. At the same time, the nexus of the user experience is shifting off of the device and into the cloud, greatly disadvantaging Apple vs. its web-savvy rivals.'”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: If the following is being “run down by rivals,” more, please!
• Apple’s iPhone takes top spot from Google’s Android in U.S. smartphone market share – November 27, 2012
• Study shows Apple iPad dominates with 98.1% of all tablet web traffic – September 28, 2012
• Apple rakes in 71% of the world’s smartphone profits – September 8, 2012Paul Sagawa’s so-called analysis has been iCal’ed for future use.
Here we go again. >:(
Writer w/no data does FUD again to satisfy his editor boss.
yep – this is exactly the same kind of crap as an article I read the other day about the Surface where the writer actually wrote the following phrase – “…and it uses the most popular OS on the planet…” – he was actually referring to Win8 here [unbelievably!] – these guys are living proof that most tech commentators don’t really have a clue.
this is gettin’ kinda tired.
When you “consult” you become an instant “expert” regardless of how stupid you really are.
In every single hit generator piece like this, that I have seen, nobody ever considers Apple’s industry leading profits. Now, if Apple’s profits were to begin sliding, then these idiots might be on to something, but they aren’t, so they’re not.
“When you “consult” you become an instant “expert” regardless of how stupid you really are.”
HUGE lol, sir, well done!
Just curious, is there any “one” model of smart phone that is outselling the iPhone? Every time I read one of these doomsday articles, it sounds as if the numbers are skewed by operating system vs model/manufacturer…
No there is no single model that is outselling the iPhone, there are also no 2 or 3 model combinations that are outselling the iphone.
Sent from my droid
they usually skew the numbers in a way that they can make the iphone or the iOS look bad.
You will never see “analysts” comparing apples to apples, oranges to oranges.
You will see OS (Android) vs iPhone or Actual Sales vs Shipments.
But you will never see numbers like “Profits vs Profits”, “iPhone 5 vs Galaxy III”, iOS devices vs Android Devices, Actual usage of iOS vs Actual usage of Androids.
Idiots are funny, Just search “Idiot” in youtube and you will find tons of funny videos, and you probably will find videos of this so called analyst.
Yes, is there ANY other phone out there that brings in, (just the iPhone), more money than ALL of Microsoft. ;-D
Exactly!
Let’s keep this simple: the guy is full of shit.
“Android phones now outsell Apple 5 to 1, and the iPad is on the same path”
I think he needs to understand that shipping products does not automatically translate into sales.
Apple’s iPad marketshare went from over 90% in 2010 to 60% today not because they are selling less, but because more and more companies are shipping their own tablets now and flooding the market with them.
It is impossible for any company to hold such a large marketshare in a consumer device market, unless it is a specialized device that no one else is interested in manufacturing.
As real world usage statistics show, the iPad still accounts for over 90% in use. So really, there’s nothing to see here except another analyst being a jacka$$.
“Super premium price”?
What the actual hell?
Did any of these clowns ever attend any business classes? Here’s what John Paul Getty said, “Sound stocks, purchased for investment when their prices are low and held for the long pull, are very likely to produce high profits through dividends and increases in value. “
“Still, if Jeff Bezos can convince the equity market to wait patiently for Amazon‟s profits, perhaps Tim Cook can do the same for Apple.” WTF, Apple makes more profits in a year that I think Amazon has made in its entire existence. Okay, okay, if that is hyperbole, please understand I am just practicing to be an analyst.
“… Android phones now outsell Apple 5 to 1” and yet the iPhone NOW out sells Android phones in the USA.
Idiot!
Also more people do online shopping on iPads and iPhones then any other device. Why? Because they are more engaging Apple users spend money unlike Android users.
5-1? So?
Does he not know iPhone is available on only half the carriers, and that Android is moe default OS for most feature phones that used to ship with symbian or whatever?
And did he not just get the memo that iOS devices were responsable for most of the shopping done by ALL mobile devices in the World?
If the article is so biased and inaccurate, which it is, why post it? Why fuel the fear?
Yea, that’s why Apple is sold out of all of it’s newest products.
That’s why Apple’s iPhone 5 just went to the top of the leader board beating out thousands of Android models with only one model. That’s why Apple can’t make it’s product fast enough for the demand. Yea, poor Apple is hurting so bad with over 110 Billion dollars in the bank collecting interest and no debt.
You sir are an ass, for writing this crap about Apple being anywhere near and cross of anything. There are to many facts that make you look really stupid.
Android get the headlines for it’s world wide market share, but Apple holds the lead (which is steadily increasing) where it matters i.e over 50% market share within the worlds top 15 most affluent countries compared to just Androids 35%, and of course it turns out that hardly any Androidians are actually using their “smart” device for the purpose it was intended, Apple iOS devices generate over 90% of mobile web traffic and over 70% of profits, these must be a terrifying statistics for google. Android has flooded the market place, but it appears that only a small percentage of this Sh*T is actually sticking.
In defense of MDN, we are the choir and the site is NOT preaching to us with such posts. Most of us understand the Apple ecosystem and philosophy(ies). As many of us are also investors, it IS important to see and understand what is going on out there. Such postings just give us a way to gauge a mostly uninformed public’s actions and reactions as a tool to understand why the stock does what it does. Don’t attack the messenger. MDN is doing the right thing in informing us. This site is not advancing or backing such ideas. Such information is valuable for you to make good use of…if and when you so desire.
MDN does a singular service to the Apple community through its eagle-eyed harvesting of Apple FUD stories, decisively refuting them with its carefully compiled iCal archives.
Just for the record I wasn’t attacking MDN, I was attempting to add balance (and clearly failing badly) to Sagawa’s very one sided version of reality. I think MDN do a great job and I’ve been a regular follower of this site for a number of years now.
He got his first fact wrong. Apple didn’t dominate the first decade of the new millennium – the iPod didn’t take off until Christmas 2004.
Stay tuned, we’ll know the answer in 12 – 24 months. Sagawa’s contentions may be valid if Apple releases no meaningfully new hardware or software in that time frame, but only marginal upgrades of existing products.
I don’t think a marginally thinner, lighter, or faster iPhone or iPad will continue to sell well and command the same premium as they do today. Margins will continue to shrink as competition continues to grow is a reasonable assumption in that scenario.
It’s the razor (Apple) versus razor blade (Google and Amazon) business model that investors are evaluating and concerned that inexpensive but reasonably functional smart phones and tablets from the competition are beginning to and will increasingly hurt Apple core business.
It’s unlikely that Apple fails to release a new, game-changing product in that time frame, however until they see what it is, investors rightfully remain cautious.
That might be what they are concernrd about, but they misunderstand the issues, which Will be revealed within those 12-24 months. What you are getting with an iPhone is a Free Mac that happens to have à phone app. Apple is orders of magnitude Ahead in this.
You can sell your phones for less I suppose if they are made out of plastic.
this “analyst” dope doesn’t get that EVERYONE in the digital consumer products world is now at a “crossroads.” this is the dawn of the “Post PC” era, and every company is trying to figure out how to adapt/evolve/lead during this very different decade.
many will fail (RIM, Nokia). some will decline (HP, MS, Sony). some will maintain (Amazon), and some will prosper.
i wouldn’t put any bets on Google – its business model is uncertain. Samsung apparently is winnning the cut throat competition among the Asian OEM’s for making commodity hardware.
right now Apple is prospering far more than all the rest. at a minimum, its future is in own hands.
Just follow the link to the article on Fortune Apple 2.0, then click on Sagawa article’s link. Finally look through his posts on the Blog of the company.
That’s all. You’ll have the full picture. And it has just one name: “Propaganda”.
What a sad and beautifull world!
It’s a shame that it’s more and more populated by paied liars…