Why Apple’s amazing Siri may herald the end of the iPhone – or not

Apple’s “new Siri ‘intelligent assistant’ melds computing into everyday life in a remarkably novel — and useful — way,” Stephen Wunker writes for Forbes. “A dozen years ago, we in the PDA business (in a former life, I led the smartphone program at Britain’s Psion PLC) heard consumers ask for voice activated organizers, but we never imagined something so far-reaching, intuitive, and…fun. This looks like yet another mega-hit for Apple.”

“Yet while we pop the champagne and queue to use the service, pause to think a moment about Apple’s strategy. The company has minted money through marrying device and interface in a way that stand-alone hardware and software companies never did. The Mac, iPod, and iPhone all succeeded through integrating radical hardware and software innovations to stand out from crowded markets,” Wunker writes. “With today’s announcement, we are seeing a shift. The hardware unveiled in the iPhone 4S is more advanced than in the previous generation, to be sure, but it is hardly exciting. Apple now seems to be betting on the software to drive the sales. With Siri, iCloud, and innumerable less prominent systems, the company is ingraining its systems into users’ lives in an unprecedented way.”

Wunker writes, “What would really make Apple’s market share explode would be to make Siri, iCloud, and other offerings easily available on any handset.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Market share is virtually meaningless when you dominate in profit share. Apple didn’t license Mac OS X to PC assemblers like Dell, they reserved it for Macs, the most profitable personal computers ever made, and, while they make make some services available to lesser platforms (see iTunes, iTunes Store, QuickTime), it’s quite a stretch to see them give away the company jewels in order launch some quixotic quest to make their “market share explode.” How many PCs does Dell have to sell for every Mac sold just to match Apple’s personal computer profits? Nine? Ten? More? Apple took two-thirds of the available mobile phone profits in Q211. Two-thirds! Profit share trumps market share every damn time.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dan K.” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
Apple could buy the entire mobile industry – September 8, 2011
IDC: Apple now the world’s #1 smartphone vendor – August 4, 2011
Apple officially ousts Nokia as world’s largest smartphone vendor – July 29, 2011
Apple took two-thirds of available mobile phone profits in Q211 – July 29, 2011

69 Comments

  1. “Wunker writes, “What would really make Apple’s market share explode would be to make Siri, iCloud, and other offerings easily available on any handset.”
    ————————————

    Oh, Wunker… Sigh…

    1. Love the BSG reference. With iCloud backup it won’t die, it will just download to another copy without all the goo. I think once people start using Siri they will see how useful it is.

  2. In the beginning, didn’t Steve Jobs say that Apple was aiming for 10% of the global phone market share? This might suggest that world domination market share has never been an Apple priority.

    1. It was 1%, and that was the goal for the first year of iPhone sales. Now they have 5% and obviously want more, they just don’t tell us the new goal(s).

      They may not want to dominate the world, but maintaining and growing market share is a must if they want to keep iOS a robust platform for developers.

  3. I am giving this release a few months to see if we have the next newton or the next incarnation of MAC (CLI->GUI->SIRI). if it works well and as hoped (remember someone on stage called it beta) it should break the game open again. If not, it could be a long winter for Apple fanbois.

    1. He meant Beta to cover his butt if Forstall got up there and asked Siri something and it didn’t recognize his voice or did something wrong..

      and also to show that Siri only has a few languages right now that “she” understands.

      Wonder if they will have other voices that we can select?

        1. With Siri’s ability to understand intent and context I could definitely see a foreign language translator coming soon. We’re well on our way to having a handheld bablefish.
          As for speaking in english and typing in spanish, why not just speak in english and have it speak it back in spanish?

  4. Iam a very huge apple fan, ok call me an fanboy, but I’m very dissapointed in the 4s- faster yea, bit same old body, time to get big not just fast , who cares if your phone is voice activated, so are so many, guess I’ll get a samsung, getting tired of apples phone look,

    1. Some fanboy you are, buying a Samsung just because Apple didn’t do a case redesign.

      Do you carry your iPhone in a case like the vast majority of iPhone users? Then what the he’ll do you care what the case looks like?!? Buy a new case and be on your merry way with your new-looking smartphone.

      Apple had the same thing occur with the 3GS. The improvements from 4 to 4S are much greater than 3G to 3GS were. So stop crying in your soup and get over yourself.

    2. What do you want? Something shaped like a pyramid or something? Just how radical can you change the design of something that fits in your hand and you have to hold up to your ear.

      I’m not extremely happy with the tapered design of the iPod touch. The beviled edges make it very difficult to hit the volume or lock buttons without looking at the device. Would much prefer the iphone design.

    3. If you’ve noticed, the way they’re going with case designs is thinner. I’m sure adding in a dual processor w/dual core graphics and all the other stuff, that battery tech wasn’t there yet to keep battery life high.

    4. You are just one of those sad show-offs who have to be seen by ‘lesser people’ to be using the latest blingy devise. You can’t show off in front of others now because the new phone’s form factor looks the same. The fact is it reflects badly on your miserable, sad, shallow little existence. Meanwhile those of us who only care about what a particular devise actually DOES, not how it looks, will happily carry on using cutting edge technology.

  5. I thinnk the jury is still out on Siri. I’ll have to see how well the comprehension of voices, especially in noisy environments works. Current voice control on ip4 does not work well. Dragon dictation works pretty good, but still gets words wrong. Current Siri assistant app seems to work well, but still gets things wrong. So don’t get your hopes up really high, Star trek type voice recognition isnt here yet.

  6. Apple has always relied on software. The iPhone is a black slate with one button on it, what the hell do you think all the functionality comes from? It is always about the software, they just make great hardware to support it.

  7. Jury’s definitely out on Siri–especially for Canadians, where all mention of Siri is scrubbed from the Apple website and launch videos!

    Leaving that aside, if you’re not at the virtual keyboard, having to press *and hold* a button (either Home or the earbud controls) to activate voice is not quite “voice activated” like some are saying. This is still a secondary input method; I think Apple’s seeing if it takes off before committing a dedicated physical button or something to it in the next-gen iPhone.

    And a minor niggle on the voice… after all this time, they still can’t get one that sounds more natural and less obviously robotic?

    1. you do NOT want voice activation without a button..

      walking down the street your iPhone would be going nuts trying to respond.
      and the battery life would be like 30 minutes… constantly waiting for your command.
      and not to mention people messing with other peoples iPhones… just cause they can. say “Siri” is the voice command the iPhone is waiting for…
      walk up to someone with a 4S that you don’t like (or some random person) and say “Siri, dial 911”

      bad idea to have voice control with no button.
      and it’s the home button… EASY to find without looking.

      1. Re-read, please.

        I didn’t say I wanted no-touch voice activation at all. I *did* take exception to some calling this “voice activation” which it is not. And I *did* say that holding a physical button for 2 seconds is too long, relegating it to a secondary input method, and suggested Apple may be testing acceptance of Siri before committing a dedicated button to it.

  8. Wunker clearly doesn’t understand Apple. He thinks Apple is at some kind of crossroads and must decide which direction to take it’s business model. But yet he recites how Apple receives 2/3 of the industry’s profits. Why, oh why, do these people keep equating market share with success?

    A perfect reason NOT to own a vast majority of market share – now you are targeted with anti-trust accusations. If your market share is 5-10%, it’s nearly impossible for anyone to claim anti-trust violations and force you to change the way you do business. Yet you can continue to make profits hand over fist, just like Apple’s doing.

    I’m tired of these analysts who just don’t get Apple. If you don’t have a clue, put down the keyboard and move away slowly.

  9. I can see the day soon where your data and local OS can be accessed from wherever you are and that means even your iPhone could pop onto the screen of whatever device you have in front of you.

    It is going to be life changing, versus the mess where devices were separate, backed up separately and data transferred by some manually executed method.

    Backups are a perenial problem and it is an axiom that just when your project is finished and yet to be backed up, your hard drive dies!

    But this is going to put a premium on the quality of the backup service Apple creates along with the data rate you have available to move that data.

  10. I still don’t get it why people don’t get it. It’s not just a software changes! The chips is new, the battery is new, the antena is even new technology, the camera also new, everything are new. The only things that doesn’t change is the casing and the name! They can buy cheap Nokia phone which can swap casing easily if it’s that important.

    1. Yeah, but it still is just the same old iPhone. I want a huge 7″ screen-dont care about the resolution- and really cool blue lights on the back. Oh, and maybe an alien head graphic or some really awesome sliding keyboard. Oh, and add some more buttons all around it… and a built in kickstand… and some more chrome stuff…. I really dont care what internal upgrades they do. Until they give me all that stuff I will just stick with my HTC Whatever, thank you. (yes, all sarcasm)

  11. “This is what we believe: Technology alone is not enough. Faster, thinner, lighter—those are all good things. But when technology gets out of the way, everything becomes more delightful—even magical. That’s when you leap forward. That’s when you end up with something…like this.”

    1. I don’t think anyone really realizes how much of a shift in user interface this really will be… It’s the tip of the iceberg. Yes, technology getting out of the way is when the magic happens. It’s not until you’re using it for a little while that suddenly you just find yourself smiling because you’ve experienced another paradigm shift… and you aren’t ever going back. It’s not something easily explained to someone else, but when experienced… the awareness just explodes into a giddy, “holy crap” moment.

  12. I think siri will be a nice secondary input.

    It won’t be truly voice activated until it can recognize only your voice and can be initialized without a button press imho.

    I wouldn’t expect rev A to drastically change the world.

  13. If you think that Google is not going to have an answer to Siri, then you’re sadly mistaken. Google had voice recognition down much better than Apple for well over a year and it will undoubtably come out with a Siri beater or at least as good.

    1. Maybe their implementation of voice recognition was better… but why are they still chasing Apple? Every technology will eventually use voice recognition, but right now the iPhone is about to bring it to the masses. In a product. To me, that actually counts for something.

    2. Google hasn’t had voice recognition down better than Siri, especially not with conversational speech and actually finding the right information. We’ll have to wait and see how well Siri works in actual use, but Apple wouldn’t release Siri and promote it as hard as it is unless Apple was very sure Siri was ready for Prime Time.

      The real test for me will be how Siri works when I’m driving my BMW with the top down over the factory bluetooth. If it works then, Apple will really have something.

    3. Maybe, maybe not. I’m not sure and we probably have a wait until we see if Google even responds to Siri in Android.

      Google’s voice recognition is not bad at all, and they were really ahead of everyone for quite some time. I use their voice recognition to send SMS messages and for me it works great.

      The voice assistant in Android is really just translating your voice into a search query and this is where I think Apple may well have them beat at the moment with iOS5 and voice.

      If Siri integrates with the OS and allows a deeper integration with the OS (the logical next step from Google using Voice for search in android) and it is as good or better than Google’s voice recognition then yeah Google will have some catchup work to do… who knows if its even on their plate right now?

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