The worldwide smartphone market is forecast to grow 55% year over year in 2011 as a growing number of users turn in their feature phones for more advanced devices. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors will ship a total of 472 million smartphones in 2011 compared to roughly 305 million units shipped in 2010. That figure will nearly double to 982 million by the end of 2015.
The fast-growing smartphone market, which will grow more than four times the rate of the overall mobile phone market this year, is being fuelled by falling average selling prices, increased phone functionality, and lower-cost data plans among other factors, which make the devices more accessible to a wider range of users.
“The smartphone floodgates are open wide,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in the press release. “Mobile phone users around the world are turning in their ‘talk-and-text’ devices for smartphones as these devices allow users to perform daily tasks like shopping and banking from anywhere. The growth trend is particularly pronounced in emerging markets where adoption is still in its early days. As a result, the growth in regions such as Asia/Pacific and Latin America, will be dramatic over the coming years.”
Smartphone Operating Systems
“Underpinning smartphone growth is the rapidly shifting operating system landscape,” added Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team, in the press release. “End-users are becoming more sophisticated about what kinds of experiences are offered by the different operating systems. Taking this as their cue, operating system developers will strive for more intuitive and seamless experiences, but will also look to differentiate themselves along key features and characteristics.”
IDC expects Android, which passed Symbian as the leading operating system worldwide in Q4 2010, to grow to more than 40% of the market in the second half of 2011. A significant and growing list of vendors who have made Android the cornerstone of their respective smartphone strategies is propelling the growth of Android.
Symbian will steadily lose share throughout the forecast period as its biggest supporter Nokia transitions its smartphone strategy to Windows Phone. This will present a huge opportunity for competing operating systems to gain footing. Still, Nokia’s commitment to support Symbian devices until 2016 will keep the installed base of Symbian-powered smartphone users on par with its competitors.
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will benefit from Nokia’s support, scope, and breadth within markets where Nokia has historically had a strong presence. Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia’s transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.
iOS was the third ranked OS going into 2011 and will remain a force in the mobile phone market throughout the forecast. After an initial explosive growth period, iOS is expected to grow at a more modest pace throughout the latter half of the forecast as the smartphone market matures and diversifies. Although a small market share decline is expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth through the end of 2015.
BlackBerry OS is expected to maintain its position as a Top 4 smartphone operating system over the forecast period. Like iOS, the BlackBerry OS will experience market share decline even as shipment volumes grow throughout our forecast.
Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 Compound Annual Growth Rate
Note: Market share based on unit shipments.
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker
MacDailyNews Take: The press release states that IDC is located in Framingham, Massachusetts, which means that, wow, the weekend starts really early at IDC!
You’d better believe that this one’s been iCal’ed for future use.
IDC must be featured in comedy central!
iCal’ed bitches!
I cant believe know one mentioned this:
“assuming that Nokia’s transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly”
I almost fell of my chair laughing!
Windows phones in 2015? I’ll bet a used set of off-road tires, there isn’t Windows phone for sale in 2015. Nokia will be remembered fondliy, like Wang terminals.
IDC obviously hasn’t factored in iCloud and the effect that seamlessly having your data on any iOS device or Mac you own. That is a huge gamechanger. No more transferring purchases from iPhone to Mac to iPad.
IDC also hasn’t factored in the staggering levels of incompetence shown by Nokia, Microsoft and RIM in putting out a viable competitor to the iPhone. As my kids would say, “Epic fail!”
I just showed my mom how the iCloud will work. Got her to finally buy a mac after 3 years of my trying to convince her to do so.
She has an iPhone, and iPad 2 which she loves. the Mac was the next step.
I showed her by having her purchase a free app from the app store, and watch as it showed up on both devices.
“So i don’t have to sync them to get it on both?”
nope.
(the “you just made my life easier” look said it all)
this whole “prediction” they made… obviously made up prior to iOS 5, Lion and iCloud unveiling at WWDC.
once they are out, expect Apple sales to drastically go up. OS X and iOS.
Can some wise person out there please explain to me exactly why so many morons-masquerading-as-technology-experts seem to get so much delight out of raining on Apple’s parade at every opportunity? Is it like pulling the wings off butterflies, or what???
These predictions are pointless in such a fast-moving tech world. They assume that things are static, but the mobile industry is moving and changing faster than any industry has before it.
No matter who will sell how many there is one fact that boggles my mind. They estimate that 985 million phones will be sold in 2015. Nearly a billion. I find it hard to believe in a world with a population of 7 billion that 1/7th will buy a smartphone that year. I live in Silicon Valley and where perhaps that many buy a smartphone each year, but even that seems unlikely. Further, worldwide IDC estimates nearly half a billion and even more each year until 2015. So 4 years times 500 million there will already be 2 billion with fairly recent phones. So it seems to me then that only 4 to 5 billion would need a new phone, that would be an amazing 25% will buy one that year. And consider that more than half the world consists of undeveloped countries with very low income. I guess every 3 year old will have a smartphone by then. Wanna bet?
Secret to making a stupid, retarded prediction and yet being taken seriously:
Make the prediction for so many years in the future that no one will remember you made it.
2015? Four years from now, huh? I see how this goes. If, by some miracle, clumsy clueless Microsoft and their late-to-the-game OS actually does overtake iOS in the market, IDC will be crowing about how they were right. But if it plays out as everyone with half a brain expects, IDC will stay quiet and no one will remember a word.
Nice work, if you can get it.
——RM
N O T !
IDC predicted this for Microsoft in 2006. “IDC expects these Windows Mobile-supported devices to undergo the fastest growth, comprising 32.3pc of the market share by 2010”
I pity people who pay 2 Grand to get these Predictions from IDC.
Wow. IDC was on Microsoft’s payroll as far back as 2006.
IDC’s analysis ignores the fact that, with Microsoft now owning Skype, the carriers have a strong disincentive to promote Windows Phones:
http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/06/10/us.carrier.shops.downplaying.windows.phone/
The article writer doesn’t mention Skype, or make any connection between the acquisition and US carriers’ sudden distaste for Windows Phone. But considering how much of a threat the carriers consider Skype to be, you’d think Microsoft would have known they were going to be in for this kind of treatment as a result.