Gartner, Inc. is lowering its PC unit forecast for 2011 and 2012, based on expectations of weaker demand for mobile consumer PCs. Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to reach 387.8 million units in 2011, a 10.5 percent increase from 2010, according to Gartner’s preliminary forecast. This is down from Gartner’s previous projection of 15.9 percent growth this year.
Gartner expects worldwide PC shipments to total 440.6 million units in 2012, a 13.6 percent increase from 2011. This is down from Gartner’s previous outlook of 14.8 percent growth for 2012.
“These results reflect marked reductions in expected near-term unit growth based on expectations of weaker consumer mobile PC demand, in no small part because of the near-term weakness expected in China’s mobile PC market, but also because of a general loss in consumer enthusiasm for mobile PCs,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, in the press release.
Gartner analysts said that consumer mobile PCs have been the dynamic growth engine of the PC market over the past five years, averaging annual rates of growth approaching 40 percent. For much of this period, mobile PCs remained consumers’ platform of choice for bringing the Internet into their daily lives. However, due to the spread of low-cost embedded Wi-Fi modules, Internet access is now available through a multitude of mobile devices that allow consumers to engage in virtually all their favorite online activities without the need of a mobile PC.
“We expect growing consumer enthusiasm for mobile PC alternatives, such as the iPad and other media tablets, to dramatically slow home mobile PC sales, especially in mature markets,” said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner, in the press release. “We once thought that mobile PC growth would continue to be sustained by consumers buying second and third mobile PCs as personal devices. However, we now believe that consumers are not only likely to forgo additional mobile PC buys but are also likely to extend the lifetimes of the mobile PCs they retain as they adopt media tablets and other mobile PC alternatives as their primary mobile device. Overall, we now expect home mobile PCs to average less than 10 percent annual growth in mature markets from 2011 through 2015.”
The professional market is expected to continue to exhibit double-digit growth in 2011 and 2012, as aging PCs are replaced across all regions of the world. “However, even in the professional market, media tablets are being considered as PC substitutes, likely at least delaying some PC replacements,” said Raphael Vasquez, senior research analyst at Gartner.
The dramatic rise in the popularity of alternative devices and the limitations of the PC are two of many dynamics that played a significant role in Gartner’s revised outlook for the PC industry.
Media Tablets Causing Hesitation Among Potential PC Buyers
Consumer enthusiasm for media tablets is a key factor in Gartner’s forecast that the consumer mobile PC market will remain weak in mature markets. Consumer substitution of media tablets for mobile PCs already appears to be impacting mobile PC shipments in mature markets. However, a bigger issue seems to be that consumers are taking a “wait and see” attitude toward PCs as they anticipate the arrival of new media tablets during the rest of 2011.
PCs’ Limitations Are Exposed
Not too long ago, PCs were a “fashion accessory” in mature markets with vendors linking themselves to fashion designers and even creating PCs specifically for women. The current “cool” device is the smartphone, and now PCs will soon have to do battle with media tablets when they are launched in large numbers in the second quarter of 2011. Up to now, the appeal of mobile PCs has been their portability. But mainstream mobile PCs have not shed sufficient weight, and do not offer the all-day battery life, to substantiate their promise of real mobility. These limitations have become all the more apparent with the rapid spread of social networking, which thrives on constant and immediate connections. In short, all-day untethered computing has yet to materialize, and that has exposed the “mobile” PC as merely a transportable PC at best.
More information is available in the report “Forecast Alert: PC Forecast Is Lowered as Consumers Diversify Computing Needs Across Devices,” which can be found on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/resId=1558714.
Source: Gartner, Inc.
MacDailyNews Take: Revolutionary.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dow C.” for the heads up.]
The forecasts would not be lower, if they counted iPad as a “personal computer.” It’s actually the most PERSONAL computer ever…
Geez you think!
They could not see it from the time the iPhone to the iPad? They are hopeless! The iPod right-hook must have crossed their eyes. I guest you could forgive them for not seeing the iPhone and iPad assault.
Nope………. On second thought they are hopeless!
Good. MS and their ilk were always anti-competitive pigs.
Let’s see how many chairs get smashed in Redmond, and then how Ballmer responds.
if only we can get rid of the middle man here, untill this is taken care of, I will always need a PC to synch.
I’ll always keep at least one or two main Macs, so an iPad will never replace those. The iPad will continue to be a complementary device. I don’t think Apple will ever change that. It’ll always be hard-linked to desktop iTunes which is about the safest way to go as far as I’m concerned. Besides, why would Apple want to actively cut into their own business? That’s what the halo is for.
I do see your point of an totally independent iPad but even 64 GBs storage just seems, to me, too small to be a replacement for a regular computer.
Gartner’s Apple-centric analysts are off to a bit of a shaky start in their forecasting for the year. They obviously haven’t yet factored in HP’s Touchpad into the mix. The beggarly inept Palm failed to accomplish what HP has set out to achieve for them. Look to HP to further redefine the tablet market and watch as Apple begins to ape the WebOS and then you all can call it another “revolution”. But, once the iPad’s magic wears off don’t hate as the flumoxed MAC puppets jump ship for the “faster, smarter, and tons of fun” Touchpad.
Oh goody… HP has its own “Zune Tang.”
Hahaha! You said Gartner’s analysts were “Apple-centric”!?! LMAO! Now that would be a change.
Gartner has always been a bit slow on the uptake. Omitting the iPad from worldwide sales numbers shows how little they really understand the world of computing. Despite what clueless 733tsp33k thinks, an Apple revolution is underway.
No the iPad won’t always be a complimentary device it will eventually take over most if not all mobile computing demands, it is simply a matter of when not if and how soon the necessary development of technology, interactive design and techniques, computing power and appropriate software can be sufficiently developed for the devices.
As with books there will be resistance from those used to older forms but eventually the young who grow with it will take it all for granted as they did with the GUI.
Apple is slowly shifting the paradigm from “desktop/laptop/phone” to “laptop/tablet/phone”.
or desktop/tablet/phone.. I still appreciate some good screen real-estate (call me Dolemite! lol)
Paradigm was shifted the day IPad was introduced.
When Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone to the world, he said unequivocally that Apple has a 5 year lead over any of it’s competitors that was patented to the hilt.
We now know that iPad was that technology…
Steve Jobs does not mess around – iPad is the Revolution.
Anyone aware of the status of the various patent lawsuits and counter-suits? I suppose that it might be two or three years before it is worked out…
Litigation can be a very lengthy process even if most cases get settled or dismissed by circumstance. Even then details are sealed.
At the end of the day everyone will pay the piper and Apple will never let the Microsoft blunder repeat itself.
Piles of cash will see to that.
…and that it was patented to the hilt…
“The current “cool” device is the smartphone, and now PCs will soon have to do battle with media tablets when they are launched in large numbers in the second quarter of 2011.”
Excuse me, but that’s cr@p. If “large numbers” refers to tablet unit sales, then the iPad already accomplished that in spades during the previous three quarters. If the term refers to the number of different types of tablets, then that may or may not be true. A few of them, such as the Xoom, will make it through R&D, testing, and production and into the distribution channel. However, many dozens of uncompetitive concept/vaporware tablets will likely disappear given the imminent release of the iPad 2 and nascent Android-based tablets.