“‘They want the iPad and iPhone,’ he explained. ‘Nokia has a huge business in China that will be taken away by the iPhone. Nokia is going to get trashed,'” Tse reports.
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and trash them too.
Make my day baby!!
Nokia sucks!
wow.. cramer says something smart…
Cramer seems to be on a mission to drive AAPL up these days. But even a small faction of the China mobile phone business will be huge. China Mobile has over half a billion paying subscribers; that’s significantly more than the entire populations of the U.S. and Japan combined.
@ jtc
Give it a day or two, it’ll wear off.
I read and watch many analists everyday and cramer is the only one that has a clue.
3 iPads per second with another 9 countries coming to market within a week and the rest of the world still not even started up (including Korea and China)…
An Avalanche of unprecedented dimensions.
If Apple can make ’em, they’ll sell 30 to 40 million iPads this year
Eventually, even the blind squirrel finds a nut.
@ breeze
He was misquoted previously. He actually said, “So far, I’d have to say that people seem to be liking iPads. We’ve sold one every three seconds since we launched it.”
http://www.pcr-online.biz/news/33634/Apple-sells-one-iPad-every-three-seconds
ONE every THREE seconds, not 3 iPads/second. There are 60x60x24x30 seconds in a month (for months with 30 days), which is 2,592,000. So one-third of that number clearly refers to sales of iPad so far, at about one million per month, not his estimate of expected sales going forward. The sales rate will no doubt increase over time, but it won’t get to 3 iPads/second during 2010 (even if Apple could make that many).
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Cramer’s high. The iPhone is crazy expensive here in China. Most every iPhone I see from colleagues are fake ones. VERY FEW Chinese are willing to pay $800 for a phone (that is what they cost here). Very few.
A fake Chinese iPhone costs $90.
@breeze
Your math is wrong but it still doesnt make it less impressive.
Do this with me now…
1..2..3..iPAD!
1..2..3..iPAD!
1..2..3..iPAD!
1..2..3..iPAD!
1..2..3..iPAD!
…
ken1w:
OK, even so, extrapolate the numbers, based on I believe it was 1.4+million sold in less than 60 days right here in the USA alone +0.6 million in the recent limited European launch in one+ weeks, Japan, 9 more European countries, soon, China, Korea, the rest of the world, include schools, healthcare, businesses, the entire US and world Enterprise and sales force structure , military and that’s just off the cuff for starters….
If Apple can make ’em and deliver them this year, 30-40 million iPads is very realistic.
“Trash,baby,trash”
@ macarina
China supposedly has nearly 800 million mobile phones in use. Even if only 1 in 100 of the people in China who are already paying mobile phone subscribers decided to get a (real) iPhone, that’s 8 million iPhones more sold. And I have a feeling that it will be much better than 1 in 100 over time.
Ken,
I believe the correct mobile phone user amount here is in the 500 million range. China Mobil has 400 million subscribers and they have 90% of the market. So perhaps in total 500 million.
Yes that is alot, but my point isnt numbers sold. Rather, the iPhone simply will not be a mainstream item in China. Only those who are SUPER rich can afford an $800 phone. Your average well off Chinese person cant come close to buying an iPhone. I work in an R & D lab with well educated Chinese scientists. Folks who in the US could easily buy an iPhone. None of these folks at my job would ever think of spending $800 on a phone. Not a single one. Their phones are all either Chinese or fake iPhones. $100 is their absolute limit in price.
The iPhone will never, EVER be used by a non super rich Chinese person.
@ breeze
Well, your argument is purely hypothetical, because Apple will not produce 30 million iPads during the rest of 2010 – not even close. It took all the initial pre-release ramp up time, plus TWO full months of post-release production to make and sell about 2 million iPads. How is Apple going to suddenly produce 5 to 6 million iPads per month for the rest of 2010?
Maybe some time next year, after Apple buys that Foxconn factory and devotes it 100% to pumping out iPads and iPhones.
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My personal guess is 15 million iPads for 2010. One million per month average for April-June and two million per month average for the rest of 2010.
ken1w:
You never know, I do agree though that Apple has big plans for better controlled manufacturing…I buying Foxconn isn’t too hard to imagine.
Just like the iPhone is just breaking out ‘en masse, three years after it’s debut, the iPad will be gaining traction and breaking sales records for the next 3 years. iPad sale will be unprecedented and corporate/institutional and enterprise purchasing will be in bulk, which will outnumber the consumer market .
There are early days and the ramp up production issues will soon subside.
At worst next year will be another record year just reaping the rewards of this years successes and fulfilling the shortages. ( not the shorts).
Knowing what we know, Apple is indeed one of the cheapest stocks on the market right now.
a stray ” I ” in isn’t too hard to imagine
Shouldn’t Cramer be in jail right now?
@Macarina
Which non-super-rich Chinese persons are using smartphones now? Sounds like the rumors about the Taiwanese contract for 12 million hybrid WCDMA/GSM iPhones are true.
I know a few people here in Philly who know Jim Cramer (he’s from Philly). They all say he acts exactly the same in real life as he does on the show. No act there.
For lot of people in China the money doesn’t matter, if they really need the iPhone they will find the money. I know several kids that have them, they make U$100-300/mo, all had similar expensive phones before, sold them before they got outdated and bought the HK model iPhones (to get the WiFi). They are not married, live at home and use every opportunity to learn more to get a better jobs.
Then there are the rich kids, one’s iPhone got stolen while getting out of the metro train, the music had just stopped and the iPhone disappeared, she had walked back to a nearby store and bought a new one.
If China is second only to US in the amount of millionaires, there are lot of buyers, the key is how well the apps work for the local user.