Here’s his explanation in his own words from his note:
• We believe that we misgauged the online pre-orders received for the iPad starting on March 12. We originally estimated online-sales to be about 75% of all iPad sales; however, it appears that online pre-orders made up about 50% of the sales, resulting in a significant unit difference.
• We were overly optimistic on our launch day estimates of 600-700k, similar to the iPhone launch, when we were also too aggressive. With the original iPhone we estimated sales at launch of 500k and Apple sold 270k, which concerned investors about the long-term viability of the iPhone. In CY10, we estimate iPhone sales will be 36.0m and generate 39% of Apple’s revenue.
• Earlier today Apple announced the sale of 300k iPads on Sat. (4/3), the first day of sales. This is a sell-in unit number, including online pre-orders. Below is a comparison of the iPad launch with previous iPhone launches. The iPad launch (300k) was slightly ahead of launch of the original iPhone (270k on launch weekend).
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Gene seems to be compounding his errors here. Apple’s press release clearly states, “Apple today announced that it sold over 300,000 iPads in the US as of midnight Saturday, April 3. These sales included deliveries of pre-ordered iPads to customers, deliveries to channel partners and sales at Apple Retail Stores.”
We do not have the complete data set from Apple. Namely, we are missing iPad 3G model pre-orders (they have not yet been delivered to customers) through midnight Saturday, April 3. Therefore, Munster’s 600-700k launch day unit sales estimate is not “twice what Apple actually sold.” We do not know how many iPads Apple has sold through launch day. We know only how many iPad Wi-Fi-only models were sold, pre-ordered, and delivered to the channel as of midnight Saturday, April 3.
In what’s quickly becoming a comedy of errors, Munster seems to be revising his iPad estimates downward based upon a misreading of Apple’s press release. Munster’s 600-700k launch day unit sales estimate may well have been a bit high, but how high is unknown besides that it’s certainly not double (unless no iPad 3G models have been pre-ordered since March 12; an impossibility, as we ordered four of them ourselves).
The bottom line: Munster is forgetting to factor in a big unknown: the number of iPad 3G models that were pre-ordered online between March 12 and midnight Saturday, April 3. We suspect that number will surprise Gene and many others who also seem to be unable to comprehend Apple’s official statement.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers "Fred Mertz" and "Arline M. for the heads up.]
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