“The odds are stacked against Apple Inc.’s new iPad reaching sales of 1 million as quickly as the iPhone, an online bookmaker said,” Ryan Flinn reports for Bloomberg. “The iPhone, which went on sale in June 2007, took 74 days to get to the 1 million mark. The iPad, a tablet device that debuts on April 3, has a 72 percent probability of taking longer than that, according to YouWager.com, which began taking bets on the topic this week.”
MacDailyNews Take: Who says there’s no such thing as a sure bet? (BTW: Apple’s iPhone 3G and 3GS both hit 1 million in their first 3 days on the market. Apple sold 8.7 million iPhones in holiday quarter 2009. Also, iPad immediately accesses a vibrant and already-operating App Store, unlike the original iPhone.)
Flinn continues, “‘No matter what they put out on the market, there’s going to be large sales, but with this particular product, we don’t think it’s as practical as the iPhone,’ said Brian Sanz, who works on wagering, auditing and research development for San Jose, Costa Rica-based YouWager.com.”
MacDailyNews Take: Never lay odds on anything you do not understand fully or, worse, barely, Brian.
Flinn continues, “Paddy Power Plc, Ireland’s biggest bookmaker, has open betting with 3-to-1 odds that iPad sales will surge past 6 million in 2010. On the other end of the spectrum, the firm has 8-to-1 odds that fewer than 1 million units will sell.”
MacDailyNews Take: Hmm, does 2010 have a Christmas buying season?
Flinn continues, “Apple has received hundreds of thousands of iPad preorders, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing people familiar with the matter.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Obviously, Apple’s iPad numbers are going to shock everyone from Wall Street analysts to online bookies… Oh, sorry, same thing.
I went into a betting shop here in the UK the day iPad was announced and asked to place a bet on Apple selling more than 2 million in the first year and got 8 to 1 odds so had a bit of a flutter
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so is apple going to release official data 74 days after it goes on sale?
These idiots think that the iPad will cannibalize the iPhone sales. They are going to kill those crappy Windows PC Netbooks. Idiots!
I agree iPad will not sell 1 million in 74 days, as Apple is obviously having production problems or they would already be taking pre-orders in countries out side of the US.
I for one am waiting to put in my order as Apple has not even given a date for Pre-Orders in Canada.
I do think if they could produce them fast enough they could beat iPhone 1.0 in sales.
The real question is, how many iPads can Apple get made per day. That is the only limit on the rapid sales of this new innovative Mac OS X based device. This is the technology that every student going to college wants with them. This is the electronic device that every man, woman and child wants for Christmas. What man (other than Ballmer) would not love to have an iPad for Father’s Day!
Idiots! HOW MANY CAN THEY MAKE. That is how many Apple can sell.
Yes Jeff. This is also a NEW halo that will lift the sales of Macs, iPhones, iTunes, and the me.com accounts. Apple has a BILLION DOLLAR SERVER FARM this is coming on line for this. It is 4 or 5 times the size of the farm they have now.
Instead of comparing to a phone, how long does it take for a tablet or netbook to reach 1M?
I went to the site and can’t figure how to place a bet, figured I would bet to help pay for my 2nd iPad (3G)
Doubt any bookie uses a iPhone or he would not give those odds.
“Apple has a BILLION DOLLAR SERVER FARM”
You can farm servers? I always thought they were assembled in China by 14 and 15 year old girls.
Good old American Ingenuity. Who knew?
Comparing it to iPhone is silly. Another silly idea is that the iPad is a big iPod touch, when really the iPod touch is a small iPad.
If the iPad was introduced first, we’d all have them and be anxiously awaiting a smaller version. It happened in reverse order for obvious reasons, but the end result will be the same.
I’ve been wondering about the big server farm…
Do you suppose they keep all of those servers huddled together, inhumanely in pens, or are they free range?
I hope it’s the later. Green Peace likes to blow this stuff out of proportion.
1 million in 74 days equals 13,514 ipads sold per day. We have heard already of “reports” that they were selling 30,000 per day the first few days. Assuming those reports are to be believed (yes I know what happens when you assume), I think Apple could do this. I may see what I can wager on this bet!
YouWager.com are stupid. Just signed up to an account which is immediately suspended. When I ask why they say they don’t accept customers outside the US and yet their sign up form lists every country from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe and their T&C;only state that they don’t accept customers from Costa Rica, which I assume isn’t part of the USA anyway. I was looking forward to taking some money off them.
Your odds of getting paid by YouWager.com if you do win a bet with them are 1,000,000,000:1.
Put that bet money into iTunes Store credit and buy yourself something nice to read on your iPad April 3rd. I don’t care if Apple sells a million or a trillion in 72 days, just as long as they sell me one on April 3rd!
The odds a bookie quotes is not a reflection of their personal opinion of probability.
Bookies quote odds based on the wagers they receive (for and against) minus their cut (15% of total bets). They win no matter the outcome.
Would that be ebookies (?) and in the future — ipaddies ?
I like server farms.
Just like the veal pens at the cube farm, they produce only the most succulent tech.
PaddyPower aaah these would be the dumbos who have been known to pay out early on sure things that ultimately turn out to be wrong. Probably even worse reliability than analysts then and certainly out of their depth.
The iPhone when it came out cost $599 plus a service contract; the iPad starts at $499 ($629 with 3G) with no service contract. The iPhone was an unknown quantity, unproven; the iPad builds on the positive experience with the iPhone and iPod touch. There were no 3rd party apps when iPhone was released; there are now so many apps that “there’s an app for that” has entered popular culture – as in this week’s episode of Chuck.
Rather than say “Well, look at the slow adoption of the first iPhone” we should say “Given how well the iPhone did as a new category product, just imagine how well IPad will do given what it’s got going for it!” The wind, figuratively, is at its back.
We can’t order 3G units yet.
74 days from when?
There”s an app for that
From what I see, the death of the low end laptop, netbook, webbook, pentablet or whatever you want to call it is ONLY a bit over ten days away.
There is NO reason to accept the need for a physical keyboard with its hundred or more parts in the average use of a device that is primarily needed to input small amounts of control/key commands and let the user then access and alter the viewing of materials.
Few people sit down and crank 20-40,000 words an hour on a mechanical keyboard, and if they do, they can add an Apple keyboard wirelessly to the iPad.
Almost every acquaintance of mine has flipped to Macs & iPhones over the last 2-3 years.
The reasons are 2: Simplicity & Reliability!
iPad will increase Simplicity & Reliability, EVEN MORE!
Technology should never be difficult to use for the average person or it will be poised for obsolescence.
Ahem, I meant to say 2000 to 4000 words/hour (round about 40-70 wpm).