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Analyst: Apple iPhone could overtake RIM’s BlackBerry in market share by next year

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 · 2:05 pm · 17 Comments

“Apple and Research in Motion, with their well-known iPhone and BlackBerry mobile phones, have seen their shares in the global mobile phone market increase over the last few years at the expense of other mobile phone makers such as Nokia and Motorola,” Trefis reports via Forbes.

“However, RIM’s market share lead over Apple has been shrinking and we estimate that Apple will be able to overtake RIM market share by early 2011,” Trefis reports.

Trefis believes sales of the iPhone will eventually outpace BlackBerry sales for the following reasons:

1. Apple’s ecosystem of consumer products (Macs, iPad, Apple TV) and services (iTunes, iPhone apps) make the iPhone a more attractive phone for many consumers compared to the BlackBerry
2. End of AT&T exclusivity will give Apple’s iPhone wider distribution in the US (comparable to BlackBerry distribution)
3. iPhone is making inroads with business customers that have traditionally preferred the BlackBerry

Full article here.

[Via: TheAppleBlog. Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "James W." for the heads up.]

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Comment Feed

17 Comments

MadMac

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:09 pm · Reply

Sure, when an analyt says something pro-Apple, you trumpet it, but anything remotely bad and you call them names and say analysts are worthless.

Hypocrites!
krquet

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:15 pm · Reply

@MadMac
I think you missed the memo on your way here.
topshot

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:16 pm · Reply

MadMac: Well it is a ‘pro mac’ opinion site! They don’t write their own news articles. They just report on the ones they like and blast the ones they don’t. What’s wrong with that?
Predrag

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:29 pm · Reply

It might take more than a year. RIM seems to continue to defy our collective logic (and by ‘our’, I mean us, Apple fanboys). Their devices are probably the least intuitive and ugliest of all current multi-touch (iPhone, Android, Pre), yet they continue to grow the numbers. In fact, the most recent numbers indicate that they have grown market share faster in January than iPhone, coming in at 43%, compared to iPhone’s 25.1%. On the other hand, it would be fair to say that Apple is competing with the total of three models (two of them long discontinued), while RIM has a whole stable of various devices at various price points.

RIM’s stranglehold on enterprise seems to resemble very closely Microsoft’s desktop dominance. While I’m sure there’s a bit more flexibility in the matter of smartphones than desktops, it is clear that the resistance among IT drones is again fierce and only forceful pressure from above (C-level executives) has the ability to displace RIM for Apple.

As long as the trends remain positive for Apple, we have nothing to worry; sooner or later, we’ll catch up.
Jersey_Trader

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:31 pm · Reply

RIM should stop doing that buy a BlackBerry and get one free. RIM needs to do a buy a BlackBerry and we will give you as many as you can get someone to use, that way they will stay ahead until late 2011.
Gregg Thurman

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:36 pm · Reply

iPhones will surpass Blackberry, in the US, during the September quarter.
Jubei

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:37 pm · Reply

RIM will probably continue the buy one POS get one POS free for a very long time. If they continue to lose market, it will be buy one POS get two POS free. Just watch. A few of the competition are already following the give away POS free in a desperate hope to keep market share. RIM and other POS can’t win by providing compelling innovative products. Their competing with POS giveaways. It’s their only ammo and hope.
Klayy

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:39 pm · Reply

hate to disappoint the Apple fanboys but i’d be shorting Apple

http://stk.ly/9nyJ5v
Jubei

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:44 pm · Reply

Predrag is correct. RIM has the luxury of having the same mental stranglehold with enterprise IT/CIO Borgs from Microsoft. They even have their users thinking RIM touchscreen devices is just as good as the iPhone. These people are absoloutely convinced of it.

Really amazing to see the smilarity.
mackle

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:47 pm · Reply

the unobvious…

trends are not straight lines. they are based on underlying dynamics like demographics/aging/market saturation. two positives that help RIM stay in the game are:

1. your company gives you one because that’s what the infrastructure favors. the adoption phase is over and they are in replacement mode. growth starts to slow.

2. texters prefer the buttons. saturation point nearing. new adopters of smartphones are less likely to be texters. many texters text because they cannot afford the data plan of a smartphone. some market pressure building here against growth.

the rate of new adoption will be favoring iphones. game over, just don’t know the final score.
Dreamer

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 3:59 pm · Reply

As great as it sounds, the analyst made a crucial flaw in his analysis. He assumed that Apple would drop it’s exclusive agreement with AT&T;(and add Verision). As wonderful as that might be, Apple isn’t about to come out with a product just for one network. The AT&T;version uses GSM, the system used in many places across the world.
Don

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 5:53 pm · Reply

@Dreamer: I think you’re right about Verizon. I think you’re wrong that it’s a fatal flaw in the analysis. RIM will be overtaken sooner or later anyway.
Tt

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 10:23 pm · Reply

Blackberrys are the new alphanumeric pagers of yesturyear
fly in the ointment

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 - 10:56 pm · Reply

did anyone look at the commscore mkt share numbers? RIM will outsell apple by units for a while – they just have too many distribution points – and they are selling them cheaper for less margin. but it doesn’t matter, apple already makes more money than RIM with their iPhones and they’ll continue to. I’d bet they’ll both sell a ton of devices in the coming years…but that falls on deaf ears here.
Original Jake

Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 12:03 am · Reply

ATT exclusivity is the main hurdle for iPhone. Love my iPhone, but Apple is making a significant mistake, giving competitors time to catch up instead of dominating the market.
ElderNorm

Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 10:19 am · Reply

@klayy,
“hate to disappoint the Apple fanboys but i’d be shorting Apple”

Sorry, your link is bad, just like your stock plan. But please enjoy both. PS. I hear that Microsoft is a great buy. After a year of down and ups, it right where it was a year ago.

Just a thought.

en
Cubert

Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 4:46 pm · Reply

How about the fact that people are tired of using the Blackberry clit to navigate around.