A January ChangeWave survey of consumer PC buying trends shows the ‘iSlate’ – Apple’s highly rumored but yet to be announced Tablet Mac – is causing a major wave of demand among consumers, with repercussions that are already affecting the PC industry and related markets.
The survey also shows a surge in computer purchases over the past 90 days a total of 15% of the 3,314 respondents in our January survey bought a laptop in the past 90 days and 8% a desktop – the highest combined level of the past two years.
But going forward, the rumored upcoming launch of an Apple ‘iSlate’ Tablet is already having a powerful impact on PC demand.
To gauge the potential for the Apple Tablet Mac, ChangeWave asked respondents how likely it is they’ll buy an ‘iSlate’ if-and-when it becomes available.
The survey results show strong consumer interest – with 4% of respondents saying they are Very Likely and 14% Somewhat Likely to buy one for themselves or someone else.
How does this level of interest stack up against previous Apple product transformations that were launched after a prolonged and powerful media buzz?
While there are no exact comparisons, one way to gauge the level of interest in a Tablet Mac is to compare it to the reaction in 2005 when Apple announced it would begin producing its Macs using the Intel chip.
An August 2005 ChangeWave survey asked consumers if Apple’s switch to the Intel chip made them more likely to buy an Apple computer in the future, less likely, or would it have no effect?
The results were strikingly similar to our current findings for the ‘iSlate’. Here is a comparison of the pre-launch demand findings for each:
In the current survey, the exact same percentages say they’re likely to buy the Apple ‘iSlate’ as ChangeWave found when we surveyed consumer reaction to Apple’s switch to the Intel chip back in 2005.
Bottom Line. Apple’s switch to the Intel chip widely broadened the Mac’s appeal to consumers and proved to be one of the great moves in Apple history. Five years later, another ChangeWave survey shows similarly high levels of pre-launch excitement for the Mac Tablet.
While this, in and of itself, doesn’t guarantee success – and the product has yet to prove it’ll live up to high consumer expectations – it does show the enormity of the Mac Tablet’s potential to alter the dynamics of the PC market and related markets (e.g., e-reader/ e-book market). But the real impact won’t be fully determined until consumers get to see it, feel it, test it and decide if the ‘iSlate’ is all it’s chalked up to be.
In short, while historically Apple products have had an enviable track record in terms of exceeding consumer expectations, until consumers get their hands on the ‘iSlate’ – in spite of the powerful pre-launch demand – it’s important to remember the product doesn’t officially exist yet.
Regardless, the unrelenting media frenzy has jolted the ‘iSlate’ into the spotlight, and it is already having an impact on PC demand trends and related markets.
Source: ChangeWave Research
Big news will be made if Apple doesn’t announce a tablet soon. I will laugh very hard if there’s a Q&A;session after the event on the 27th and Steve Jobs flatly denies a tablet’s existence to an irate audience.
That’s not saying I don’t want one.
… at least partly.
If this thing costs a grand AND requires a monthly data charge… fuggedaboutit.
I suspect that won’t be the case, however.
Poorly grounded analysis.
…and he announces a wind up wi-fi cuckoo clock instead. About as likely as the tablet not being announced.
Actually some person familiar with the matter said, it would be a cataclysm and riots would invade the streets and trigger the beginning of apocalypse … people say. ..
you know, in case there is no tablet, btw..
survey translation:
“We (the public) have no idea what this is or what it will cost, but trust Apple enough to have intense interest anyway- in the , um, iWhateveritis”
This is purely about Trust.
I’m buying four whether they exist or not!
it’s purely about discretionary income (a group I;m unfortunately not in) – but have a neighbor who’s 10 year old has her own iPhone.
(I hope her future husband can support her!) :^)
I still want a $100 iCalendar I can hang in my kitchen. Something that may actually serve a purpose!
Rock on iSlate – I guess!
I’ll buy one.
Only 3 more days to get in on the stock before earnings and The Event. I’m in on Feb $220 and $230 calls. And here’s a summary why:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703405704575015362653644260.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs For a good recap, first.
Content deals are going to be crazy and will be almost pure profit. Can you imagine every college textbook on one of these? Read this: http://www.nacs.org/public/research/higher_ed_retail.asp 17.6 million college students each year, each spending an average of $700 works out to 12 billion dollars. Assume they capture 25% of the textbook market and that they get a 30% cut, that’s $924 million a year cash not counting whatever else they pile on with in-book add-on purchases, ad sales etc. Seriously, imagine reading a textbook and when the software realizes it’s 1 AM and that you’ve been reading for an hour, you get served an ad from the local pizza shop that delivers. Imagine the self-quizzes being interactive and submitted for grading…
The textbook publishers be all over this for one really big reason – they can eliminate (if they choose to do so) the used book market. And if they do that, then they can cut their costs big time because they don’t have to make little tweaks every 2 years to justify a new edition to get around the used market AND they save on printing, storage, transportation and, most of all, inventory/buyback. And that’s just *college*. Think about the potential with K-12 school districts. And then, of course, there’s the mass market audience. I won’t even touch on-line media here, which is huge in its own right. And the growth that will bring to app sales. And with the more powerful processor, it will really seize handheld gaming away from PSP, DS2 etc.
So we easily add $1 billion in net annual profit to the bottom line just from the book aspect of the device. On top of whatever profit they make from the device itself. If we’re conservative and estimate that, with this and all other associated revenues at a mere $2B net annually, then that’s a 25% premium over 2009 GAAP net profit.
Interesting data point: http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/23755/
And what if they offer them for ultra-cheap if you agree to watch ads that you can’t block? Big-time sales. And you’d probably be able to pay more after your purchase to get rid of the ads.
On top of this, I lay out an 85% probability that they will announce a change in their 2010 earnings calculations upon earnings release. While they have until 2011 to change from the 24-month recognition method, I suspect they will not want to book the tablet over 24 months regardless of how it is sold (carrier subsidies etc.) So it would make sense to report all units in the quarter they are sold from day 1. The restatement will catch a lot of idiot Wall Streeters who still look at P/E ratios completely blind.
Which begs one more issue. What about all the iPhone/TV deferred revenue when they make the change (now or later this year)? How will they do the switch – keep on booking the ones that were deferred before the switch OR do they take it all in one lump sum and clear the books? I give a 43% chance that it’ll be the latter AND that they’ll deal with that huge bolus of cash as a one-time dividend. Probably something on the order of 3 bucks a share. Of course, buying a dividend is not wise, but if you’re buying options you don’t care.
Possible downsides: too few partners at launch. For example, http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/23754/ Availability could slip to mid-year. Jobs health is always lurking, but one must have faith (and take profits off the table once in a while)
It’s just a larger, lighter, but more powerful iPod Touch, folks. Noone wants to carry around a tablet and hold it with one hand and type with one hand. Like Jobs said…the only thing a tablet is good for is surfing on the toilet.
History says the expectations attached to any Apple version 1 new product release cannot meet features, specs, and price point all at the same time…prepare for disappointment in one or the other or all.
While this is a positive story for Apple, I would say that Changewave’s surveys are highly suspect and not useful for anything more than general trend analysis.
Well, I’m doing my part. Bought a Mac Mini last week for a friend and my wife is getting an iSlate the minute it goes on sale.
Now if they would just start taking orders for that Parrot ARDrone then I can get something for lil ole me.
“high consumer expectations”
Wait, isn’t that an oxymoron? Consumers buy what they’re told at the cheapest prices available. Their expectations are met at the checkout counter… Their disillusionment is realized once they’re home and the product turns out to be complete crap.
There’s an App for that!
To meet the wave of demand, Apple is working feverishly on an iPaddle.
Unbelievable. People don’t even know what they’re saying they’ll buy.
I’m convinced Apple will revolutionize the tablet industry, but I can’t say I’ll buy it until I see what the thing does and whether it will fit in how I need to use technology.
There are too many jobs out there writing commentary, doing stupid surveys, etc. on Apple products that don’t exist or aren’t available yet. Our economy would be in REALLY bad shape if all these people couldn’t make money off of this pure speculation.