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Analyst: Apple’s deal with AT&T for iPhone exclusivity ends June 2010 (with video)

Monday, November 23, 2009 · 9:10 am · 40 Comments

While appearing on Bloomberg News on Friday, Broadpoint AmTech analyst Brian Marshall explained why Apple, “the greatest technology firm on the planet,” will add Verizon as a U.S. carrier in 2010

His points:
• AT&T Mobility’s U.S. iPhone exclusive deal expires in June 2010.
• Apple’s per iPhone US$450 subsidy from AT&T will drop to $300 per iPhone when exclusivity ends.
• 4% of AT&T subscribers have Apple iPhones, but they consume roughly 40% of the network’s bandwidth.
• Moving to a multiple-carrier model by adding Verizon to AT&T could generate 14 million additional iPhone sales in 2011.

In addition, Marshall discussed the importance of iPhone in China, why Microsoft’s launch of Windows 7 doesn’t negatively affect – and just might boost – Mac sales, and more:

Direct link via YouTube here.

[Attribution: Fortune. Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers "Dale E." and "James W." for the heads up.]

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Comment Feed

40 Comments

1 2 Next »

silverhawk

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:15 am · Reply

T-Mobile please!
MidWest Mac

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:17 am · Reply

I’ll believe when I hold that iPhone in my hands. Been burned too many times.
voice of reason

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:21 am · Reply

why do pundits continually trumpet the same rumor and speculation/wishful thinking as fact?

If this is simply a market manipulation technique, it is a ridiculous tactic. Anyone has to understand that Verizon’s network uses COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGY than AT&T;and 90% of the world. Why is this simple fact so impossible for people to understand? Building a CDMA phone just for one carrier would increase the price of the phone, and not allow for the economies of scale that a single UMTS technology platform allows.

It is also frustrating when ‘analysts’ report details of an agreement that has never been made public, as if they know the internal workings of the agreement. I think there should be large letters at the bottom of the screen that say ‘OPINION’ when people like this are talking.

ugh.
MDN word: service- as in: if you think this would help iPhone service, have fun doing more than one thing at a time on that big red network like, I don’t know, talking and checking email at the same time. “Hold on, i have to check my email, can I call you back?”.
Steve516

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:23 am · Reply

I can’t wait for Verizon to start explaining why things are so crappy on their network when they have 20 million+ iPhones sucking down all their supposed bandwidth…

I for one will stick with AT&T;- having a GSM with worldwide capability is important to me.
voice of reason

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:24 am · Reply

and another thing: Let’s see what happens to ‘the network’ when all of those iPhone start sucking up all of the bandwith.
silverhawk

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:25 am · Reply

Is there a island of misfit analysts?
ron

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:28 am · Reply

Haven’t had a dropped call yet on my iPhone. I’m an AT&T;customer BTW.
MacinScott

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:38 am · Reply

Sprint please.

Best reception I’ve had including AT&T;and Verizon.

Heck, open it to all and drive down the monthy rates.
chaz

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:41 am · Reply

@voice of reason

There’s no technical reason Apple cannot adopt the CDMA radio and make the other necessary adjustments. If Motorola can do it for Droid, I’m quite sure Apple can do it for iPhone.

Question is, will Verizon accept the iPhone business model that cuts out the carrier from Apps and other support?

I think not. That’s why I think the iPhone will more likely first be seen on Sprint and T-Mobile months earlier than Verizon.
Al

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:41 am · Reply

The reason everyone and their brother thinks Verizon will get the iPhone is a simple one. Eventually Verizon will get the iPhone.

The new high speed network that Verizon is just beginning to deploy now will be able to carry today’s iPhone 3G and 3GS.

Apple is using multiple carriers in every country it can for maximum exposure and sales. Why wouldn’t Apple do the same thing in it’s biggest market?

Use your heads people.
@ voice of reason

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:48 am · Reply

You forgot about the LTE network that Verizon is rolling out, which is more compatible with the current technology than CDMA.
AL

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:51 am · Reply

Just unlock the iPhone for the First Gen version.

There is NO REASON why it is not unlocked except to give ATT executives their bonuses.

I am out of contract, I paid the Full amount on opening day, and I am still being gouged.
me

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:54 am · Reply

If he’s correct about the 450 to 300 subsidy, then it fits in with the 350 early termination fee.

We have a lot of laptops with verizon cards in them. They seem to handle the traffic. Plus they allow tethering (for a cost of course) too.
Sarasota

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 10:58 am · Reply

Short SBC, I mean AT&T;, and buy Verizon?
Gregg Thurman

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 11:08 am · Reply

The best argument against this idiot’s speculation is his assumed pricing after the exclusivity ends. If ATT were to continue selling the iPhone at current levels (and why shouldn’t they- its their #1 selling handset), they will gain enough extra net revenue to upgrade (every 12 months) 10,000 towers to whatever.

THAT would do far more to take the strain off ATT’s network, than would adding some crappy CDMA competitor.
Canadianbacon

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 11:18 am · Reply

The iPhone in Canada is sold on 2 CDMA providers networks, Bell and Telus. However, they are still gsm phones and are actually using a newly built hspa+ network. No reason why this can’t work with verizon as long as they have a large 3g compatible network.
Think

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 11:26 am · Reply

The biggest reason I see against this, is Verizon giving up “charging” for music, video, email, etc…

Crippling phones too.
Admiral X

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 11:29 am · Reply

I love how analysts come on the tube and spout half truths and suppositions as if they’re facts. They are truly the Delphic oracles of our time.
Whatever

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 11:51 am · Reply

Verizons 3g is not compatible with the iPhone.
Bizlaw

Monday, November 23, 2009 - 11:53 am · Reply

Isn’t the iPhone in China on CDMA? If so, then Apple’s already building millions of CDMA iPhones.

If China is not CDMA, then simply using Verizon’s new LTE network, that won’t work because LTE won’t be everywhere. So Verizon customers will have large areas without service unless Apple makes a CDMA iPhone.