Following the meeting, Abramsky wrote in a note to clients, “‘The discussions reaffirmed our Outperform thesis: iPhone Channel Leverage Remains High. Despite intensifying competition (Android, RIM, etc.) Apple continues to enjoy strong global carrier interest in iPhone…’ He adds that iPhone’s secret weapons include: ‘Vertical integration (hardware/software) and iTunes ecosystem remain a significant competitive advantage over contenders, with evolving innovations pending, applications leadership and content ecosystem,'” Goldman reports.
As for Android, ‘”‘Multiple configurations’ is viewed as a disadvantage to application developers, vs. Apple’s single-platform model,’ he writes. Apple’s App Store continues to be the key differentiator with 90,000 titles versus the Android’s 12,000… [plus] Apple has something none of the other smart phone makers do, namely everything else: Macs, iPods, an OS for computers and phones, a robust retailing strategy, iTunes, the App Store, the intangible of market mojo, and the executive talent to pull it off,” Goldman reports.
Goldman reports, “On the operating system side, Abramsky says, ‘Windows 7? Bring It.’ The upgrade cycle is another opportunity to get consumers and enterprise customers in a shopping mode again, and if they’re gonna crack open the checkbook, why not spend the cash on a Mac?”
Much more in the full article, in which Goldman explains that “watching Apple [iPhone] at this stage is like watching ‘Sunday Night Football.’ It’s a total blow-out late in the fourth quarter and yet the commentators try to come up with scoring possibilities and formulas to make the game a little more interesting, to hold the viewer, even though everybody really knows the game is over and who won,” here.
MacDailyNews Note: In a nutshell: Bloodbath.
MDN’s take is perfect for Halloween
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. . . and very true.
It’s articles like this that just warm the heart…
I love my iPhone but I think we all can agree Apple should not have 100% of the market. 70%? Sure. So there will be a collection of others. That is fine as long as they know their place.
Everyone competeing with Apple thinks that they got Apple’s Number the fact is they have no clue and are shooting were Apple was.
Google, Microsoft, Dell, RIM …
Windows Mobile is toast, but Android will be a strong competitor.
the football game analogy is a good one. but it’s not the fourth quarter yet. it’s the 3rd quarter and Apple is three touchdowns ahead. the BB/Pre/Android fans are still clinging to hope. (WinMo and Symbian fans are “waiting for next year”)
SLAMM DUNK! from Apple!
Don’t get me wrong, I love my iPhone, but this game is FAR from over. This would be the equivalent of someone in 1980 saying “The Personal Computer game is over. Apple will own the market.” The Personal computer industry was barely in it’s infancy in 1980. A lot has happened since.
The game isn’t over. We’re still in the first quarter and Apple scored first and looks to be doing good on defense. But talk to me in 12 years and we’ll see how the game played out.
@iSteve,
I agree. I’m a capitalist at heart, but a conscientious one who likes the fact that Apple does their best work with the competition on their heels a little- as in a mile back a little in a marathon…
I still think people can’t overestimate the value of iTunes. I mean, here’s this incredible, free software that helps manage all of your music (and videos and podcasts and audiobooks, etc.) PLUS is a simple, intuitive gateway to vast amounts of content for one’s iPhone/touch. I mean, 90,000 apps is a great number, but what counts for me is the 2,400 items in my library I can seamlessly port to my phone or use on my computer. And millions worldwide use iTunes. Android, Palm, RIM, no one can touch that ubiquity combined with ease of use right now.
John E:
I don’t think Pre fans have any hope at this point. Judging by the sales numbers, Pre failed to gain traction it had hoped to gain. I won’t argue of the merits of the Web OS (I never touched a Pre, so it would be unfair to pass judgement), but reality shows that Palm + Sprint alliance has no market muscle to excite people. Even BB will be struggling to penetrate touch-screen market any further. Their follow-up device is already being pushed aside for Motorola’s, and Verizon is clearly declaring who they thing the betting horse will be for this holiday season.
Realistically, the only really serious competitor with merit is Android. Funny how this was practically obvious even a year ago, when Android was first released, and it continued to be obvious through the releases of Storm, Pre and WinMo 6.5.
It looks like it will be just like with the iPod — Apple will dominate, and Android (the OS) will be the No. 2 (like Sandisk to iPod). The bottom 5% will be fought for by Symbian, Web OS and WinMob 6.5 and subsequently 7.
Blackberry is doomed with iPhone and Android moving up at RIM’s expense. It is unclear how the “would-have-been-blackberry” users will split between iPhone and Android.
RBC’s wireless analyst this morning Mike Abramsky and team “met with top execs at Apple and came away smitten,”
Does that sentence make any sense? I think I know what he meant, sheesh, that’s convoluted grammar!
I like to add that the benefit of Snow Leopard is mainly running the next generation of applications that are not even available today. So if you think Windows 7 is catching up. Wait until Open CL and Grand Central Dispatch savvy applications hit the selves. All this in true well founded 64 bit greatness in systems that can have 16 to 32 Gigs of RAM!!!
I alos like to say that Snow Leopard brings a great opportunity for smaller Mac developers that can implement all these new API with out the drawback of having to deal with legacy code and cross platform parity. I think the Mac platform is just getting started and wait until QuickTime is completely ported to 64 bit, the video industry will relish this development.
@Dallasm,
While I see your point I can’t help but wonder if the game isn’t constantly changing, courtesy of Apple and others who dare to truly innovate. I would suggest that there exists the real possibility that the smartphone as we know it will not only evolve but perhaps give way to an unknown and as yet to be conceived type of implementation.
These are exciting times to be a technology nerd (as well as frustrating- the shear speed that things are changing at makes for keeping up with what is current sometimes impossible!) because of all the revolution that is taking place in the digital world. One very plain example- Bluray. It won’t matter in 5 years if something is on Bluray or not b/c it will be replaced by digital content delivery over IP or some other means (fiber optic anyone?)
From the article, “Trouble for Palm is that it’s still largely a one-trick pony, though Pixi might have some potential.”
Um, no. No man is ever going to buy a phone called a “Pixi”. With that stupid, effeminate tinkerbell name, they’ve eleminited 50% of the phone’s potential market right out of the gate.
Who is in charge of Palm’s branding/marketing strategy? Their awful feminine hygiene-style commercials and now pinning their hopes on a phone called the Pixi makes me think Palm really has no fucking clue who buys gadgets and what gadget buyers want.
Eveybody that rhinks physical media for video will be gone in a few years is sadly mistaken. Digital downloads will not take over until decent broadband is available EVERYWHERE, not just urban areas. That’s gonna be a while. Physical media still has a good long life ahead of it yet.
Eh, I don’t think this has anything to do with market share or sales. It has more to do with efficiency and being able to maximize resources. Knowing your core competencies and building products and services around them, creating entirely new platforms and markets.
Right now Apple has three great strengths, design (hardware and interface), content distribution (iTunes), and an extremely versatile operating system.
On top of that, with their retail stores and ad campaigns, Apple has a marketing machine that no one else can come close to matching.
Oh boy, Abramsky tooting iPhone’s horn… can’t be good for Apple. Remember, he’s the dweeb that issued a “buy” recommendation on Palm and a “sell” on Apple based on what I think he called valuation. He works for RBC… RBC owns a chunk of RIM.
I’ve bought two Palm gadgets over the years. The first, a Palm III, wasn’t bad. The second, I don’t remember the model, I bought to eliminate the cradle to USB kludge. Neither turned out to be extremely useful and I never thought I got value for the money. I’ll never be tempted by another Palm product.
Apple is a different story. I’ve owned and used Apple products since 1979. The only Apple item I regret is that I didn’t buy any stock back in the day. Hindsight is so 20-20.
I don’t know how many times in my lifetime I’ve read that “the game is over.” In 2002, the Democratic Party was dead. In 2008, the Republican Party was dead. In 2004, the the series is over, the Red Sox are dead.
The game isn’t won. The iPhone does not have 100% market share. Finally, you just can’t love an analyst when he says the Apple rocks and hate the next one because he says Apple sucks. Most analysts are quite smart, but tend to hyperbole because their job isn’t to really analyze a stock but to make money for the brokerage. They aren’t whores, more like concubines.
The game isn’t ever going to be over. Someone will come out with a better phone someday. And it might outsell the iPhone, if Apple reads this press. I hope they think what I think of it.
If you must use American Football as an analogy, Apple has a good lead. It doesn’t matter what quarter it is. Apple keeps moving the goal posts while making the field longer. Apple keeps changing the rules.
There are other teams in the game but they are all prepared to play last year’s or the year before’s game on last year’s or the year before’s field.
Apple controls the whole iPhone ecosystem. Google controls only a very small part of the Google smart phone ecosystem. Same with Microsoft and their WinMobile phones. RIM controls a lot of it’s Blackberry ecosystem but it is still missing several parts. Nokia is starting over from scratch, rewriting their phone OS fairly late in the game. Palm is on life support.
What all iPhone competitors haven’t learned to do yet is build a intuitive human interface. The iPhone, in all it’s facets, is a hell of a lot easier to use than any other smart phone. Just look at the customer satisfaction stats.
It’s all about the software, stupid.
NewtonsApple wrote:
“Eveybody that rhinks physical media for video will be gone in a few years is sadly mistaken. Digital downloads will not take over until decent broadband is available EVERYWHERE”
This is very true, but how many times do we as consumers need to be jerked around from one physical media format to another? I’m done with physical media. DVD/CD will be the last physical media I buy, ever.
As far as broadband is concerned, in the USA at least I think it’s time to take control away from private companies and make it a public utility. Capitalism and free-markets were supposed to be good for competition, but all it has done here is stagnate the industry. The US sits at the bottom of the technology list, because greedy-ass corporations don’t want to spend the money on upgrading their systems. Phone, Cable, Wireless, etc… The quality is abysmal. Where’s the fiber we were promised more than a decade ago? Didn’t the government grant the communications corporations billions of dollars to upgrade their systems? Where’d that money go?
There should be one public wired backbone and a public wireless system and as consumers we should be able to choose which provider we want for whatever service we want… Only then will there truly be an open and free market.
And then there is PA Semi – we have heard nothing coming from that purchase as of yet. That could be the real maximizer in all of this. Ah yes, it is about to get exciting!
But here the losing teams still think there’s another game next week.