“Against a backdrop of slowing sales growth in the overall mobile handset market, [iSuppli], the El Segundo, Calif.-based research firm sees a bright spot in smartphones,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“The report offers two scenarios for 2009 and beyond. Its best-case forecast calls for global smartphone unit shipments of 192.3 million units in 2009, up 11.1% from 173.6 million in 2008,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “Its more pessimistic outlook calls for growth of only 6% this year, or 183.9 million units.”

“What determines which brands do best? ‘Applications are everything,’ according to iSuppli,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “‘Beyond the friendliness of user interfaces, the availability of a variety of applications is the key factor attracting consumer interest to smart phone products,’ writes Tina Teng, senior analyst for wireless communications for iSuppli. ‘Thus, different players at various segments of the supply-chain are starting to build mini-ecosystems—including applications—in order to attract consumers and gain their loyalty.’”

Elmer-DeWitt reports, “Apple, with more than 20,000 apps and an installed base of better than 17 million iPhones, has a big head start.”

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