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Analysts: iPhone sales drastically beat Q4 expectations, Apple reaches 10 million iPhone goal

Monday, October 6, 2008 · 9:49 am · 39 Comments

“Based on the tremendous efforts by members at Mac Observer’s AFB [Apple Finance Board] to track IMEI iPhone numbers, we have determined that Apple has drastically surpassed analyst’ Q4 iPhone sales estimates, and that Apple has reached its goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008. The consensus estimates for iPhone sales figures for Apple’s Q4 (calendar Q3) were calling for approximately 4 million units. It now appears that Apple has sold at least 7 to 7.5 million iPhones in Q4—that’s nearly 80% above consensus. Apple has far surpassed even Gene Munster’s bullish estimates of 5 million iPhone sales in Q4 according to the data,” Andy M. Zaky and Turley Muller report for Bullish Cross.

“The latest IMEI [International Mobile Equipment Identity] data point collected by AFB was 9,190,680—an 8GB Black iPhone recorded as manufactured on September 29 and sold on October 5. This suggests that even if a whopping 1.5 million iPhones of the total IMEI registered devices are unsold as of today, an unlikely assumption, it would still put 3G iPhone sales at 7.6 million units and 2008 iPhone sales at over 10 million units,” Zaky and Muller report. “Coming into the quarter, Apple had already sold 2.42 million iPhones. Thus, 7.6 million 3G iPhones sold puts Apple above 10 million units for the year.”

More in the full article, including some well-deserved criticism of so-called analysts Toni Sacconaghi, Kathryn Huberty, and others, here.

[Attribution: Fortune. Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "Jersey_Trader" for the heads up.]

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Comment Feed

39 Comments

« Previous 1 2

DH

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 11:08 am · Reply

AAPL is a steal at the current price levels. The earnings call on Oct 22 will be an absolute winner. As usual, the analysts have their heads up their rectums.
BeyondtheTech

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 11:09 am · Reply

Now’s a good time to play Ballmer’s initial reaction to the iPhone announcement… Just one more time.
MidWest Mac

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 11:10 am · Reply

I officially don’t understand the market AT ALL.
I never proclaimed to know much about the market. Now I’m resigned to the idea that I have no frickin’ clue whatsoever.

I bought many months ago at $134 and then I bought most recently at about $168. I was most proud of the second purchase, because it was right around the time of the 3G launch and I knew Apple would sell millions of them and the stock would hit $225 in no time.

Well, Apple did sell millions of them and millions of iPods and Macs, too. And the damn stock is less than half of where I expected to be.

Seriously, this economy must be totally f%&#ed;because if Apple can’t maintain its value then what corporation can?
Stockholder

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 11:11 am · Reply

To all you in at $134, $108…do you realize that you just lost 30, 40% of your money???
And you are bragging about it?
If you paid $13,400 for 100 shares ($134 each) you have not lost over $5,000 (now at $88).
In the toilet.

This is a total disaster.
Now with the price so low, some one could easily snap Apple up.
Buck Foston

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 11:13 am · Reply

I do hope you are right, and I suspect that you will be. Sadly, the damage has already been done to Apple’s stock, by repeated and concerted attacks by hedge funds and shorts, often using ethically questionable tactics.

All this makes me wonder why people like Kathryn Huberty even has a job. I wish that I could be so inaccurate in what I do, and be well compensated for it. It seems that stock brokerage analysts cast far too large a shadow for their own good, and often lead investors far astray from the truth. Perhaps TV weather reporters and stock market analysts are two occupations where you can get away with complete and utter incompetence, so long as you look and sound good.

That said, I believe that in the long run, a stock’s price will track its earnings. And at this time, given Apple’s price declines, which I believe to be based on lies, false rumors and terrible analyst assessment, may give investors pause, just like today’s downswing in the Dow and worldwide markets. But if you look at earnings, not price, you will come to believe, as I do, that today is an opportunity, not a problem.

I close with the insightful words of Warren Buffet, who famously said, “Be greedy we others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.”
10 Million

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 11:23 am · Reply

When Steve Jobs said 10 Million iPhones in 2008, did he mean:

The period from June 29, 2007 (iPhone Launch Day) to December 31, 2008

or

The period from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008
?
Bryan

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 11:27 am · Reply

people..relax…the stock will go back up. Its one of the few consumer products people are still buying!!!
John

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 12:09 pm · Reply

You just know if they blow away expectations at their earnings call that Apple will end up losing 5%+ of their stock value. Makes no sense, but you can almost bank on it…
currentinterest

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 12:18 pm · Reply

It will be Apple’s guidance that (partially) determines the stock price, not its performance. Given the conservative approach Apple has taken in the past, their projections will likely cause a further sell-off. Look for prices in the 70s.
Jubei

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 12:20 pm · Reply

Wish I bought it when it was 11 bucks before Jobs came back!!!!!

Ballmer said iPhone will fail right? No keyboard, yet all these morons are coming out with touchscreen ( no multi-touch ) and hawking it like its the same as the iPhone? LOL
Rauha

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 1:41 pm · Reply

Too bad that these amateurs and their “analysis” doesn’t take into account that IMEI codes are rarely sequential in large numbers.

It’s higly unlikely that any single manufacturer has been given 10 million sequential codes.

Totally worthless piece of news.
jaxson

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 1:50 pm · Reply

Yes, it will be the projections for the next quarter that will determine where appl the stock goes. If they are overly conservative as usual, it will drop 5% minimum. If not it will rally like crazy given that they will have awesome numbers for the last quarter based on the iPhone 3G and Macs.
darknite

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 2:23 pm · Reply

With gret news like that, Wallstreet has only 1 option, drop APPL another 40-45%
Zeke

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 3:21 pm · Reply

@Rauha:

Most of us at AFB have made a lot of money (some millions) by simply believing in Apple’s track record, crunching our own numbers, noting the quality of the competition, and ignoring the “expert” analysts. I’m up about 3000% over the last 5 years, and right now I’m mostly cash, but I’m buying AAPL shares on each price drop.

What’s *YOUR* track record? Got any proof to back up your claims? If Kathryn Huberty and Toni Sacconaghi are examples of “experts” giving financial advice I think I rather prefer intelligent amateurs.

Why be long at all in this environment? Because great companies like Apple are going at fire sale prices. Warren Buffet, famously said, “Be greedy we others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.” Those aren’t just platitudes. He just put $10B into this market last week.
DogGone

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 5:57 pm · Reply

As I’ve said before Apple innovated out of the last recession and will do the same again. The iPhone is going to be an even bigger success than the iPod.
R2

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 6:52 pm · Reply

@10 Million,

I believe it’s January 1, 2008 – December 31, 2008.
McFly

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 7:00 pm · Reply

The 10 million was from 1.0 product launch (June, 2007) thru the end of 2008. Loosers.
Essence

Monday, October 6, 2008 - 8:07 pm · Reply

Sigh. No, as stated a million types, it’s been clarified to mean the 12 months of 2008. Not that it really matters now, since it’s easily being accomplished.
Amsterdam

Tuesday, October 7, 2008 - 8:00 am · Reply

I worked on a test for Micro with its Vista before releasing it.
I told that Microsoft they had done badley with it. Not listening to the market. Not consumer/user friendly or even Idiot proof.I told them; “Microsoft has its best years behind”. They laughed, the intervieuws where recorded on tape at the time.
I bougth on $ 126,00 sold on $ 179,00
Bougth again on $ 165,00, % 149,00 an $ 128,00
Shure it is not nice short term, I don’t have cash to buy again and more. But in 14 months it could tripple easy the price of today made buy …
Who says that Micro isn’t one of the Hedge buyers not only to make money but also to win its war which has taken a different level with Apple now..
To many people and companies are sick of the atitude of Micro, and change. Of course Micro knows and shivers.
Just hang in and we all have a break later.