“Apple has a well-established pattern of low-balling its financial guidance – and BMO Capital’s Keith Bachman thinks we will see more of the same when it comes to the September quarter,” Eric Savitz blogs for Barron’s.
Savitz continues, “In a research note this morning, Bachman takes a look at the direction Apple is likely to provide on September quarter numbers. He notes that in the past the company has guided to 3%-5% sequential revenue growth in the September quarter, which he notes would suggest revenue of $7.7 billion to $7.75 billion, versus the current consensus of $8.27 billion. He notes that iPhone sales in the quarter should jump to north of 4 million from around 700,000 in the June quarter, but that most of the revenue is deferred, given the company’s policy of recognizing revenue from the phone over a two-year period. Bachman thinks Apple could guide EPS for the quarter to $1 a share, versus the Street consensus of $1.24.”
“Bachman also notes that Apple also tends to beat its guidance; he notes that while September quarter guidance has generally called for growth of about 5%, the actual growth has tended to be more like 10%, which would suggest revenue of $8.1 billion the quarter (assuming $7.35 billion in the June quarter) with EPS of $1.21, closer to the Street’s current view. I would also point out that Bachman is no bear on the stock; he has an Outperform rating and $205 price target,” Savitz reports.
Full article, in which Savitz also reports what his boy Toni Sacconaghi (Eric must have pulled him in off the ledge) thinks about Apple, as if his thoughts have any value at all, here.
MacDailyNews Note: Apple will to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its third fiscal quarter on Monday, July 21, 2008 at 2pm PDT/5pm EDT. A link to the conference call webcast will be here. Analysts consensus estimates for Apple’s Q3 08 call for $1.08 EPS, on revenue of $7.35 billion, or 35.9% YOY sales growth. Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO, has provided guidance of “about $7.2 billion and earnings per diluted share of about $1.00.”