May 24, 2012 - 05:16 PM EDT — AAPL: 565.32 (0.00, +0%) | NASDAQ: 2839.38 (0.00, +0%)

Apple upgraded by AmTech Research from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Buy’ a mere 13 days after ratings cut

Monday, May 5, 2008 · 10:50 am · 36 Comments

Apple this morning has been upgraded by AmTech Research analyst Shaw Wu from “Neutral” to “Buy” a mere 13 days after the analyst cut his rating on the stock to “Neutral” from “Buy” on so-called “valuation concerns.”

Since April 22, the day the Wu that cut his rating, Apple shares have gained $24.80, or 15.5%, rising from $160.20 at the close on April 22 to $185 currently.

MacDailyNews Take: We guess that, for some reason, in under two weeks, Shaw’s “concerns” about Apple’s valuation have simply evaporated even as the company’s market value has risen $21.8 billion to $162.6 billion since April 22.

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Comment Feed

36 Comments

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Predrag

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:09 pm · Reply

This board seems to be receiving a very high proportion of teenagers. Mr. Wu is responsible for providing investment information to customers with a lot of money to invest (and a lot of money to lose). At the time, two weeks ago, when he made recommendation to ‘Hold’ (not ‘Sell’), AAPL has just had a 40% run-up in a period of a few weeks. They were just about to announce earnings for a quarter that was most disastrous for the most of US economy for the past seven years. The odds were stacked against AAPL, which was confirmed the day after earnings, when AAPL stayed put, not going anywhere, even though the report blew every expectation out of the water: Mr. Wu was right. However, as soon as substantial rumours about 3G iPhone started appearing everywhere, AAPL continued to climb. Hence, today’s new recommendation.

Mr. Wu was one of the more bullish analysts for the past year. He was bullish even in January, when everyone else was crying (and people on this board were expecting a drop to $80s, screaming at Jobs for a stock buyback). So if you listened to Mr. Wu for the past year, your AAPL holdings would today be approximately double from last year, perhaps less than 8% lower than what you would have had if you had ignored his last recommendation of two weeks ago.

It is much better to err on the safe side. Especially when the outcome of your work affects many others. Not earning potential profits (without any work) is much better than losing money you had to work for.
Tom

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:10 pm · Reply

@Steve – yes, MK preceded ATR in both the downgrade and upgrade. The MK interval was 16 calendar days and their upgrade happened immediately after the earning call. MK more clearly read the absence of the post-earnings share dump and their clients benefitted from their view.

I’d really like readers of this page to be more at ease with the nuance of commentary by analysts. It is easy to misplace the target of their thoughts – they are speaking about the shares, not the company or it’s products. It requires discipline to always focus on what they do – they trade. Every comment must be read within the context of buying and selling the shares.

Lastly, as with players in every other game, they make plays on offense and defense. Don’t get angry or upset – watch, learn, practice, and profit from what you come to understand.
Cap

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:11 pm · Reply

Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray is the only analyst that has any clue as to what is going on with AAPL. I’d suggest that if you own AAPL stock or are thinking about buying it, to read his analysis and totally ignore any of Wu’s drivel.
Randian

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:19 pm · Reply

Gene Munster, and ONLY Gene Munster, knows what’s going on at Apple (among the pundit crowd). Make no mistake, everyone else in the ANALytical Game is listening to EACH OTHER . . . not Apple, its customers, its product line, its sales figures, its track record, and the like.

Let Mr. Shaw, Mr. Wu, or whatever he calls himself hurl his nuggets of wisdom at those who do not know his “Johnny Come Lately” relationship with AAPL. So be it.

As for me, however, Gene Munster’s LONG-TERM connection to the company and its equity will do just fine.
What?

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:19 pm · Reply

@mcdeans
I think you have it right. Wu is usually in the loop with Apple and is usually Bullish.
Demon

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:22 pm · Reply

I guess you could say AAPL P0wnd Wu!
His clients lost a lot of cash following his recommendation and rating of neutral.
MikeK

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:42 pm · Reply

@mcdeans
I think you have it right. Wu is usually in the loop with Apple and is usually Bullish.

——————

Actually, No. Wu IS NOT “usually in the loop” with Apple. The guy is a moron.. He has taken word for word comments from users at AppleInsider in his “Analyst reports.” The timing of his reports is always several days after rumors appear.

The fact that he downgraded Apple to “hold” just days before earnings with all the early reports of Mac sales doing much better than anticipated just compounds his stupidity and inability to understand Apple apart from what he reads on rumor sites.

Though he is on the opposite side of the likes of Enderle and others, his reasoning is generally wrong..
Wu sucks

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:53 pm · Reply

@ Gwendo
At $1M+ a year in salary and bonus, analysts like this are paid not to make mistakes like this. No one can predict the future but his is a job of knowing the industry very well and applying sound analysis principles to give probable outcomes. He missed this by a country mile and has mislead frequently in the past. Your forgiving attitude is geared more for environments like grade-school not Wall Street. AmTech would do well to dump this guy today and hope the forgiving that takes place is that of AmTech’s clients.
Wu sucks

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:57 pm · Reply

@ Predrag

Come on. Wu is looking at the same data as all the other analysts and came up with a different conclusion. The wrong one. Either that or he’s just trying to manipulate. On either count he sucks.
Predrag

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 12:58 pm · Reply

No, he’s usually right. His clients have made boatloads of money following his advice on Apple.

His advice is not for the day-traders; it is for investors. For those that put their money in some stock and let it work for them. While Gene Munster may have gotten it right even more often, Shaw Wu is still a big champion of AAPL and if you listened to his advice about AAPL, you would be rich now as well.
Wu sucks

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 1:09 pm · Reply

@ Predrag

Wu has previously made “predictions” about Apple product releases and then when the products didn’t ship on his schedule, cited Apple as being late; and the stock went down. With champions like this…, as the saying goes.

“if you listened to his advice about AAPL, you would be rich now as well”

You sound like Wu’s brother or some late night infomercial loser.
Ampar

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 1:55 pm · Reply

With apologies to The Kinks.

“Yeah, Wu really got me now
Wu got me so I don’t know what I’m doin’, now
Oh yeah, Wu really got me now
Wu got me so I can’t sleep at night

Wu really got me
Wu really got me
Wu really got me”
Johnsson

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 2:01 pm · Reply

Amtech and other firms’ notes are meant to generate trading, buys and sells on which they earn commission. If they don’t do it themselves, they earn kick-backs from the firms with whom they execute clients’s orders, up to half the commission. Thus, they issue notes to make people switch between different companies several times a year when actually, a better strategy is to buy some of each and hold on long-term.
They might actually also tank up on a stock themselves when it is cheap, wait until it rises, then issue a buy and their clients buy from them instead of from the market. In this case they make more money.
therepguy

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 2:05 pm · Reply

I womder how many folks took his advise?

And how many are still clients?

Will they never learn or my Mr. Wu simply out to make a buck if he had been able to drive the stock down?

Id so his actions backed fired big time!

The real question is will Mr. Wu have a job next Monday?
NCIceman

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 2:39 pm · Reply

This type of job is such a racket….they get paid to guess just like the rest of us….
Steve

Monday, May 5, 2008 - 3:03 pm · Reply

@Gwendo – thanks for the info.

@Tom, Predrag – I’d say you guys get it. Thanks for the filling me in on Morgan Keegan, I hadn’t heard they changed their position.

For the record, I think Shaw Wu is a pretty good analyst. And for those on this board who insist that many people “lost money” due to Wu’s recommendation, I’d suggest you learn the difference between “Sell” and “Neutral” ratings. His recommendation was essentially to hold through this period, don’t buy more. If you sold during this period, then you can’t read or you didn’t trust his recommendations. I’d say his was a sensible call (if not astute) under the circumstances, as there was tremendous downside risk not many people picked up on. He’s been pretty solid, not just on Apple, but on the tech industry he covers as a whole.