“The recent slide in Apple (AAPL) shares can be attributed to one thing: Steve Jobs playing games with expectations. Now it is coming back to haunt shareholders. Here is how it typically goes: Jobs gives guidance that he knows is too low and then Apple blows it away and the stock surges. Analysts have relied on those expectations to make their estimates and have traditionally been too low,” Todd Sullivan writes for Seeking Alpha.
“Not being idiots, they caught on to the game and have ratcheted their expectations higher than they expect Jobs to ‘guide them,'” Sullivan writes.
“A funny thing happened this week. Apple guided analysts lower than what they thought the ‘low ball’ expectation would be… The problem is that people just do not believe what Jobs is telling them,” Sullivan writes.
“In the current environment, indecision equates to fear and shareholders are suffering,” Sullivan writes. “If you are going to give guidance, conservative is one thing but playing games like Jobs has with it is just wrong because eventually it comes back to bite you. No one can doubt his genius or showmanship, it was hubris that was his downfall once and is hurting him again now.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “MacVicta” for the heads up.]
In other words: “We got used to financial ‘magic’ and expect ‘magical magic.’ ”
Stocks go up and stocks go down.
Even though Apple is currently rocking, why would anyone be surprised that with the economy tanking the way it is – with Apple apparently unaffected thus far – that he would guide low? If anything that’s not doing a disservice to the shareholders.
Apple in the next quarter could potentially be affected here, and sales could indeed suffer couldn’t they? I don’t get it.
oh please….
….the market and industry rags are worse than cable news. create hysteria, conflict and conspiracy out of nothing and then try to assign victimhood to large groups so they rise up and create more hysteria, conflict and conspiracy.
Could you consider making a special section, called “Pump & Dump News”, to satisfy those whose only interest is in shares, and not the computer for the rest of us. We’re not all shareholders, and the games they play are tiresome.
yes, they are idiots.
Sounds like somebody just lost a bunch of money.
I’d rather Jobs and company guide low and then beat guidance as opposed to the other way around. You think you got beat up today?… you ain’t seen nothing. Wait till the day Apple doesn’t beat their guidance. There will be major blood the day that happens.
If you bought AAPL for the long term you should not care as the stock will climb up sooner than later.
If you’re in for a quick win, tough luck.
What a load of equine excrement!
Jobs needs to give a reasonable number Apple can meet in a down economy. If he is more aggressive, and Apple misses their target by even 1%, stock prices take a massive hit. He isn’t conservative one time and aggressive another. That would be playing games – using numbers to further your own agenda. He consistently delivers conservative estimates. He’s not throwing a “change up”.
Give it a rest!
Didn’t hurt me, took this opportunity and bought at $130.
I’d rather Jobs and company guide low and then beat guidance as opposed to the other way around. You think you got beat up today?… you ain’t seen nothing. Wait till the day Apple doesn’t beat their guidance. There will be major blood the day that happens.
Another moronic analysis from Seeking Alpha. Apple is CONSISTENT in their conservative guidance. Consistency is the key. If they were haphazard, that’s gameplaying and the SEC would look into it. There’s nothing wrong, and everything right in consistency. How can guidance for 29.3% higher revenues be lowballing low estimates? What planet are these idiots on?
http://dotnet.sys-con.com/read/450705.htm Oct 27, 2007
In the past year, Apple stock has been +115%, vs Microsoft +7%. Over the last five years, Apple stock has been +2270%, vs Microsoft +21%. And in the last ten years, Apple stock has been +4314%, vs Microsoft +89%.
Sullivan provides us with utterly useless commentary. So he can’t predict stocks. Blame Steve. Great.
So, analysts “know” that Apple is giving low guidance. People “do not believe” the low guidance. BUT, the low guidance hurts the stock price?
Look, I do not know much about the stock market, but there is at least some disconnect here.
“How can guidance for 29.3% higher revenues be lowballing low estimates? What planet are these idiots on?”
Exactly.
“Not being idiots, they caught on to the game and have ratcheted their expectations higher than they expect Jobs to ‘guide them.”
They’ll still idiots…company has best financials in its history and stock caves in. That’s idiotic logic.
Do you skate to where the puck is, or where it’s going to be?
It only hurts the stockholders if they SELL when the price is LOW. If you don’t have the cojones to stay in the market on a downturn, then sell all your stocks, cash the check, and stuff the money in your mattress. See what kind of return you get then.
He should be in jail for stock manipulation. I’ll bet his friends loaded up on apple stock puts.
The stock market has nothing to do with reality. It never has. Stock prices go up and down on whims, not the quality of a company or its products and services.
Apple’s price dropped because investors were scared. It had nothing to do with Apple. In fact, if Apple had given uncharacteristically optimistic guidance, that would have scared investors too. The price would have still dropped, possibly even lower. When people are looking for a reason to dump a stock, they’ll always find one.
What is an analyst, other than someone who sits on their lazy ass spouting crap while everyone else actually contributes by working.
It’s amazing how many professional parasites there are in the world.
It wouldn’t be so bad if they were simply benign, but these scumbags have the ability to bring everything down. What a screwy system.
It’s not that Wall Street didn’t believe Apple’s guidance this time… It was Apple’s lower than anticipated guidance that has the market spooked about it’s stock price. If the markete didn’t believe Apple’s guidance, then the stock would have been unaffected.
Another ANAL-ist pulling crap out of his ha…butt!