“If you follow the rules and sell on good news and buy on the bad, now would be time to short Apple Inc. There is no company out there with this much good news,” John C. Dvorak writes for MarketWatch.

“The good news that’s over the top is about the iPhone. It’s going to set the world on fire once it’s released, according to all the experts,” Dvorak writes. “This leaves me as perhaps the only mainstream naysayer, since I remain skeptical that Apple (or anyone else for that matter) can jump into the deep end of the mobile-phone swimming pool without knowing how to swim.”

MacDailyNews Note: Please see related articles:
Dvorak trolls: ‘Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone’ – March 28, 2007
Dvorak on Apple iPhone: ‘I think Apple can do wrong and I think this is it’ – January 13, 2007

Dvorak continues, “I was reluctant to revisit this subject, since the media already has beaten it to death. But the legions of Apple mavens that will buy anything bearing the company’s logo demand more and more coverage.”

MacDailyNews Take: Beaten it to death or beaten you to death due to morbid stupidity, John? So, where were these “legions of Apple mavens” when the G4 Cube was on sale, John? It had a big Apple logo on it. We’ve yet to meet a single “Apple maven,” and we’ve met legions, who are demanding more and more iPhone or any other coverage from John C. Dvorak.

Dvorak continues, “I got a call last night. ‘I think it’s time to sell Apple short,’ said the voice… ‘The keyboard is a disaster, and people are going to return the phone in droves. I’m guessing 20% will go back… It’s frustrating to use.’” The conversation drifted off and I wasn’t convinced, because I do not think people are going to buy the Apple phone because they want to type on it.”

MacDailyNews Take: The conversation most likely drifted off because Dvorak was having it with one of the voices in his head. If not, and someone calls John and tells him that pigs are flying around Manhattan, do we get a report via MarketWatch, too? Someone who has actually tried the iPhone for a good amount of time, Andy Ihnatko, for the Chicago Sun-Times, wrote back in January, “I think the iPhone’s virtual keyboard is a huge improvement over the mechanical thumbpads found on the Treo and any other smart phones of its size.” So who do you believe, Andy with hands-on experience or John’s disembodied voice?

Dvorak continues, “I could be wrong about this, since Apple is emphasizing the Web-surfing capability of the device. The company has bought into the groupthink premise that people will want to surf the Web endlessly on a small device.”

MacDailyNews Take: If you go to the iPhone section of Apple’s site (online since January), the order of features is: “Widescreen iPod,” “Revolutionary Phone,” “Breakthrough Internet Device,” and “High Technology.” Third on a list of four; some emphasis. John, Apple doesn’t do groupthink very well at all. We’d say you have Microsoft on the brain, but you obviously don’t have one. Apple is simply trying to offer the best mobile web browsing experience on a handheld device.

Dvorak continues, “My unnamed friend also offered an odd anecdote that I found somewhat weird, but worth mentioning. He said that he was in the Apple store and the personnel there were showing videos of the iPhone, when a customer said, ‘Wow, you mean it is also a cell phone!’ What did the person think it was, a fancy new iPod?”

MacDailyNews Take: Either Dvorak’s “friend” is the New York Times’ John Markoff or Dvorak’s been reading the NY Times recently and incorporated it into one of those voices of his. John Markoff reported for The New York Times on June 4, 2007, “During an onscreen demonstration of the iPhone in Apple’s sprawling retail store here recently, an employee, clad in a black T-shirt, of course, surprised a potential customer. Nonplused, the customer stammered, ‘You mean it’s a cellphone, too?’” Pardon us for questioning the very existence of Dvorak’s “friend.”

Dvorak continues, “As for the iPhone keyboard leading to disappointment and returns, I’m not convinced. I’m sticking with my scenario where the phone is hugely successful for a couple of quarters until the fashion goes stale. By then, the functionality will be duplicated by others and Apple will be treading water.”

MacDailyNews Take: You mean like they did with the iPod? Or iTunes? Certainly not the Mac, because as Apple CEO Steve Jobs made clear as he unveiled the iPhone at Macworld Expo 2007, “We’ve been pushing the state-of-the-art in every facet of design… we’ve been innovating like crazy for the last few years on this and we’ve field for over 200 patents for all of the inventions in iPhone. And we intend to protect them.” Sorry, John, no upside-down and backwards fakes from Microsoft or anyone else this time around.

Dvorak continues, “In the meantime, there will be the inevitable production flaws that hopefully will not be catastrophic. If a production catastrophe does occur, call your broker.”

MacDailyNews Take: If you believe that Dvorak hopes there are no catastrophic production flaws with iPhone, you need to put down the pipe.

Dvorak continues, “I can say for a fact that all the other handset players are freaked out by this device, and have contacted the independent design firms to come up with something as jazzy as the iPhone, in case it becomes a runaway hit. But what about the Big Two, Motorola Inc. and Nokia Corp. I’d follow Apple’s lead — not the lead in design and marketing, but the lead in ridiculing the competition in company advertising.”

MacDailyNews Take: Motorola and Nokia should ridicule Apple’s iPhone because they’re years behind the highly-patented device? Idiotic, illogical advice as usual, John.

Full article Think Before You Click™ here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers too numerous to mention for the heads up.]