“Last week the FCC finally approved the iPhone and it should be on the market by June. I am putting a sell on Apple, the company that created the iPhone,” Laura Goldman writes for McClatchy-Tribune News Service.
MacDailyNews Note: According to the note below the article, “Laura Goldman worked on Wall Street for more than 20 years for such firms as Merrill Lynch and UBS Warburg. She now runs her own investment advisory, LSG Capital, from Tel Aviv, Israel.”
Goldman writes, “One of the oldest axioms on Wall Street is ‘Buy on rumor, sell on news.’ Steve Jobs’ Svengali-like performances and the take-your-breath-away beauty of the iPhone has deflected the hard questions until now. I would rather sell before the questions are asked or, even worse, answered.”
Goldman writes, “Steve Jobs at MacWorld this January dramatically announced, ‘From this day forward we’re going to be known as Apple Inc. We’ve dropped the ‘Computer’ from our name.’ With those two sentences, Jobs has effectively pronounced the desktop computer dead.”
MacDailyNews Take: Oh, he did, did he? Goldman offers nothing else to support her claim that by changing the company name to Apple Inc., Steve Jobs “effectively pronounced the desktop computer dead.” One would naturally wonder why Jobs continues to regularly add “Get a Mac” commercials that feature iMac product shots and why he continues running the large ad campaign in print, on TV, Radio and online if he thinks desktop computers are dead.
Goldman continues, “Now that the future of Apple is the iPhone, Apple’s valuation might start to trade in line with other mobile handset makers like Nokia, Motorola and Sony-Ericsson.”
MacDailyNews Take: That statement is based on the unproven assumption that Apple “has effectively pronounced the desktop computer dead.” Somebody should tell Goldman to look at Mac unit sales growth (3X the industry average) — and iPod+iTunes Store sales — before she issues “sell” recommendations based on severely flawed thinking.
Goldman continues, “How will Apple cope with the markdown in price that will eventually be required and the pressure to margins? I do not know if they will be able to do what they have done with the iPod. In that case, they added more features while keeping the price constant. In effect, later buyers get more iPod for the dollar. And as for the price, at $499 and $599, I wonder how many teens and young adults, who are the most avid buyers of the iPod, can afford the iPhone. When the Mac was introduced in 1984 to critical acclaim, the price was a steep $2495. When buyers experienced sticker shock, huge sales did not materialize.”
MacDailyNews Take: Goldman gets so much wrong, it’s amazing. The only part she gets right is where she admits she does not know. Apple’s iPhone target market goes beyond the “teens and young adults” market, so getting worried if they can afford the iPhone overlooks all those that can. And, who’s to say teens and young adults can’t or won’t buy an iPhone anyway? Goldman tries it; we won’t. Apple’s Mac has been successful and profitable for decades; “huge sales” depends on your definition of “huge.” Apple sells over 6 million Macs per year at current rates – that’s an average of over 685 Macs per hour – we consider that pretty huge sales. Furthermore, Goldman seems to have lifted her “idea” directly from The New York Times’ John Markoff who wrote on January 12, 2007, “Despite its high price of $2,495, the Macintosh initially sold briskly. But Mr. Jobs’s early predictions of huge sales failed to materialize.” Do you have any original points, however incorrect they may be, Laura?
Goldman continues, “What does the iPhone offer that other cell phones do not already offer, or will offer soon? The answer is not very much. The first-generation iPhone does not support 3G. The touch type keypad is beautiful to look at but hard to use for lengthy emails.”
MacDailyNews Take: More pure speculation. Who’d base stock decisions on such nonsense? Anyone who thinks that iPhone offers “not very much” over other cell phones has no business writing an article about anything to do with technology, much less purporting to give investment advice on tech companies. The first-gen iPhone is for the U.S. 3G support will come when it is needed. “Several Apple insiders said the phone could be upgraded to 3G with software if Apple later decides to enable that feature,” John Markoff reported in the same article referenced above for The New York Times on January 12, 2007. Someone who has actually tried the iPhone, Andy Ihnatko, for the Chicago Sun-Times, wrote, “I think the iPhone’s virtual keyboard is a huge improvement over the mechanical thumbpads found on the Treo and any other smart phones of its size.” Sorry, Laura, but we’ll have to go with real hands-on experience over random speculation tinged with what seems to be more than a hint of a biased agenda, thanks.
Goldman continues, “Since third-party software programs cannot run on the iPhone, it is impossible for professionals to read documents in the ubiquitous Microsoft Word format.”
MacDailyNews Take: iPhone runs OS X. Mac OS X can view Word documents in any number of ways – without Word itself. TextEdit for one example. Oh, by the way, on January 12, 2007 — you know you RTFA, Laura — Apple CEO Steve Jobs told the New York Times’ John Markoff regarding iPhone, “These are devices that need to work, and you can’t do that if you load any software on them. That doesn’t mean there’s not going to be software to buy that you can load on them coming from us. It doesn’t mean we have to write it all, but it means it has to be more of a controlled environment.” Let’s wait for iPhone to be released before we pronounce it “impossible” to read Word documents and put a “sell” on Apple, okay? Sheesh.
Goldman continues, “Apple’s stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems ambitious.”
MacDailyNews Take: Apple’s stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems conservative. We illustrate conjecture with conjecture, but at least ours is right.
Goldman continues, “The Teflon coating around Steve Jobs has kept the stock options scandal at bay. But the coating may be peeling. Apple stockholders need to know that there is a remote possibility of an Apple without Jobs. Initially, the market would react very badly to that news. While applauding Apple’s innovation with one hand, it is time to take profits with the other.”
Full article Think Before You Click™ here.
MacDailyNews Take: Goldman’s load of you-know-what wouldn’t be complete without mention of Steve Jobs’ risk in the so-called “stock options scandal.” Bravo, Laura, for capping your piece with the equivalent of flushing a toilet . We pity those taking investment “advice” from the likes of Laura Goldman.
Oh Goody! price comes down, I buy! buy! buy!
It’s 2012 now and I’ve come back to this 2007 article just to say eat it Goldman
Laura was not so wrong after all…indeed Jobs decreed the end of the desktop era with the change of Apple’s name from Apple Computer to Apple Inc. Also, Apple didn’t keep initial price, dropping it few moths after launch the iPhone.
The rest of her analysis, well, that’s where she joins the rest of the ANALysts that make a living saying bullshit.
On the other hand, MDN could not foresee, as Laura did, the post-PC device era coming…sometimes to blindly defending something does not pay a great service to it.
Yeah, I always base my investment decisions on “remote possibilities”.
Another ridiculous scenario from a so-called “analyst.” I’ll keep my AAPL shares, thank you very much.
Alas… another contender for the Enderle crown.
A stock broker who ignores that top stock brockers like to be seen with the best tech products money can buy.
All those bonuses that amount to millions of dollars/pounds will not see some diverted to the iphone, because teenagers will be buying them!
She probably has teenage children and has heard them talking about it.
Someone keep an eye on her to see when if ever she ends up with one in order to perform conference calls on the go, or filter her email via visual voicemail because she is waiting for an important message and cannot be bothered to listen through all the messages.
But she does make sense in her advice, how else can mere mortals like us buy shares at an affordable price? Chop the price for us I say so that we can buy & hold.
Visual voicemail not email.
Wait til June 11th, then she’ll eat her words
Whatever. I’m holding my stock.
Way to follow those Microsoft talking points Laura.
What cell phone stock are you holding? Your CV indicates that even you wouldn’t be stupid enough to be holding Microsoft shares.
MDN, save this article for future “nah, nah, nah, boo, boo” reference. You will be using it soon. Wall Street started its “axioms” before it knew anything about Apple.
This woman is absolutely clueless about what drives Apple.
She is in it for the short-term only.
I bet she has known many, many men.
O Please let her be right.
Please, Please, Please, Pleeeeessse.
Then the share price will drop.
Then I can buy more shares @ 50 + bucks.
I WISH!!!!
She was no doubt working in the mailroom at MS & UBS.
Why would she speculate on the death of the desktop computer? Really strange perspective. I wonder if opinions are different in Israel.
It’s just amazing what comes out fo the mouths of “learned” people. Goldman is lumping Apple, and its products, in the same class and category, as all other competitors.
The problem with that, is that Apple creates categories that other’s try desperately to emulate. There is nothing industry standard about Apple or its products. “Industry Standards” do not apply here, and Goldman, the “Learned” one should know that.
“She now runs her own investment advisory, LSG Capital, from Tel Aviv, Israel.””
More info here: http://lsgcapital.com/
FUD FUD FUD FUD!
h, don’t hold your breath. She’ll just smoothly predict the doom will come later, after people realize what a clunker they bought. Then later, then later still, then later because the new half-price iPhones lack a …
Eat her words? Admissions of error can be deadly in her business, unless it is an admission of too little enthusiasm for her point.
DLMeyer – the Voice of G.L.Horton’s Stage Page Pod-Cast
correction:
I meant ML, not MS
Is this a record form most MDN takes in an article?
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Yet another analyst who doesn’t know the full picture of Apple. Sometimes I wonder how much tech knowledge these analysts actually have. A lot of them seem to know nothing whatsoever, yet I wonder how they got to their position.
Apple is actually being EXTREMELY conservative when they said 10 million iPhone’s by end of 08″….this is not ambitious. An ambitious value would be ~35 million. Apple knows that they are entering a whole new market…so it would be utter stupid of them to disclose a very high target value.
Honestly, analysts like this should be fired for providing false info or in this case lack of proof or evidence, which ultimately does affect the stock of a company adversely, because not everyone has the tech knoledge to differentiate from analyst bulls**t from actual history/reality.
I can honestly claim then that Laura is an idiot and doesn’t know what she’s talking about. And is the only one advising to sell Apple stock as it continues to rise another dollar a share. Steve Jobs did not proclaim the desktop to be dead, nor did he say anything to the fact that Apple was getting out of the computer business. If so why would Apple be releasing new laptops and desktops. Total non-sense by someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about or writing about in this case. FUD!
“analysts like this should be fired for…”
coincidentally, she works for herself.
Meanwhile AAPL will close at $112.
Somebody mentioned “learned” people.
As opposed to “smart” or “intelligent” people
Who are ‘learned” people? Those who go straight from elementary school to high school to college to often professorships without ever having a clue that real education comes from living in the real world!
They get so stuck in the “learned” forest that they never see the trees. The only way they can distinguish themselves from the other “learned” is by re-inventing someone “learned” persons wheel, and for it to be different, it always ends up being triangular or square.
And I am saying this as a teacher! I know, I see them every day, regurgitating what other “learned ” say or write.