Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com who’s also known as “Swanni,” says, “Apple says owners of the four-month-old video iPod have now downloaded more than 12 million videos, including music videos, and ABC and NBC primetime programs. The number has some Apple enthusiasts giddy, suggesting that it’s proof that the video iPod is a big success. However, if you examine the numbers more closely, I would suggest that it’s a big disappointment. Although Apple won’t reveal how many video iPods have been sold to date, the company did say that it sold 14 million iPods (of all kinds) during last year’s fourth quarter. (The video iPod went on sale in the first few weeks of the fourth quarter.) So, being conservative, let’s say that two million people have bought video iPods. That would be an average of just six downloads per person over the four months.”

“Twelve million downloads sounds impressive because it’s a large number. But when you break down the numbers, you get a different story,” Swann writes. “That’s not to say it’s proof that the video feature will never catch on. But 12 million downloads over four months is far from compelling evidence that downloading videos and watching them on a 2.5 inch screen will become the next big thing.”

Full article here.
Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He is also clueless about Apple, the iPod, iTunes, the iTunes Store, and basic mathematics. First of all, “Swanni” still hasn’t figured out that the video isn’t limited to the iPod’s screen. You can take it with you on the red-eye from New York to LA and plug it into the hotel room’s TV set or pull it out of your pocket a friends house or wherever and watch the video on any size screen you wish. We explained this in response to his first idiotic article about iPod+iTunes+Video (see related article link below).

“Swanni” also doesn’t seem to understand the difference between the video-capable iPod and the iTunes Store. His article’s basic statement is wrong, “The number has some Apple enthusiasts giddy, suggesting that it’s proof that the video iPod is a big success. However, if you examine the numbers more closely, I would suggest that it’s a big disappointment.” He’s actually incorrectly suggesting that the video sales for Apple’s iTunes Store are “a big disappointment,” not Apple’s video-capable iPod.

“Swanni” also misses a not-so-small point with his 1st grade math: iTunes video sales are not constant. In fact, they are growing exponentially. The video service debuted on October 12, 2005. On October 31, Apple announced “over 1 million” videos had been sold. 19 days to one million. On December 6, Apple announced that “over three million” video had been sold. 36 days for the next two million or 18 days per million on average. On January 26, 2006, Apple announced “over eight million” videos had been sold. 51 days for the next five million or 10.2 days per million on average. On February 7, Apple announced “over 12 million” videos had been sold. 12 days for the next four million or 3 days per million on average.

So, as anybody but “Swanni” seems to be able to see, Apple’s video sales are hugely successful!

These aren’t difficult concepts, folks. We are constantly amazed at how some people function in everyday life without having to become a member of Howard Stern’s “Wack Pack.” How they get and hold jobs is actually quite amazing! According to the TVPredictions.com site, “Swanni Sez, the daily TV Predictions Newsletter, now has more than 9,000 e-mail subscribers, including some of the nation’s highest-ranking TV executives.” Obviously, “Swanni’s” predictions are read mainly by News Corp. (Fox) and other clueless TV executives who still haven’t figured out what the hell is going on (it’s called a paradigm shift) and how to get their shows on iTunes. If they keep listening to “analysis” from “Swanni,” they’re doomed.

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Related article:
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005