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Analyst: Wall Street’s worries of slowing Apple Intel-based Mac demand are ‘absurd’

Monday, February 6, 2006 · 5:22 pm · 38 Comments

“Wall Street is worried that would-be Mac buyers are waiting until they’re sure there’s enough third-party software available for Apple Computer’s new super-speedy Intel-based laptops and desktops. (Why would they possibly do that?) Apple’s shares declined $4.55, or 6.3 percent, to $67.30 even as Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster dismissed the idea of slow Mactel demand as ‘absurd,’” Frank Michael Russell reports for The Mercury News.

‘It’s impossible for anyone to have a call to say that the lack of availability of third-party software is affecting Apple,’ Munster said, according to a Bloomberg News report. The two biggest makers of third-party software for the Mac — Adobe Systems and Microsoft — have said they’ll have versions of their programs that take advantage of the new Intel chip later this year. Microsoft, of course, makes Office productivity software, while Adobe makes popular graphic-design software such as Photoshop,” Russell reports.

Full article here.

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Comment Feed

38 Comments

1 2 Next »

SJR

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 6:40 pm · Reply

Better buy the stock now while it is down. It won’t be like this for too long…
r_y_a_n

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 6:41 pm · Reply

Buying opportunity!!!
Halla Loo Ya

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 6:43 pm · Reply

Hey, Russell – Adobe said 2007, not later this year.

I am waiting to buy a Mac when Adobe´s pro software is Mactel ready.
Stockboy

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 6:44 pm · Reply

Whew big stock owner wannabe trolls here, too!

Buy a Mac, start your own business. You will get a better ROI than playing the stock market.
me

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 6:47 pm · Reply

The DECISION to buy, hold, or sell a liquid stock such as AAPL (or anything with decent volume on a major stock exchange) is based on short term prospects (1 quarters ahead at best) not long term stock performance. That’s why a disapointing quarter can fluch millions in gains down the toilet.

So, what’s up with investors? They are not thinking, they are reacting. Mainly, they are seeing “hell, I bought AAPL at 40 and it had doubled but I better sell while I still have a 50% gain!”

Reality is that when AAPL introduces a home media device and/or full length films available for download, the rocket ship will be taking off once more.

But when you are an institutional investor, you cannot invest on the rumor, no matter what you think it may be. It’s a good way to loose your job.

So, This creates a buying opportunity. I bought some additional AAPL today. Yes, it continued below when I bought it so I am down on the day. But in March, I will be up, so it doesn’t matter.

AAPL was a good buy at $67.50 two months ago and it is a good better buy at $67.50 today because of reduction in risk now that the Christmas shopping season performance is known and Intel procs have been anounced.

I am not an investment analyst.
I forgot My Name

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 6:48 pm · Reply

Thank you Wallstreet for not understanding the computer world and especially not understanding the Apple world.

I may be able to purchase more Apple stock before it rises again.
Tommo_UK

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 6:58 pm · Reply

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/new-for-you/top-sellers/-/pc/all/ref=pd_dp_ts_pc_1/104-8031743-0869547

.. the facts speak for themselves: top sellers are still the iMac dual-cores.

Wall Street = bunch of old women who can’t operate a remote control, and still think that you can’t record to DVD

(if they thought to check Amazon.com they’d be buying not selling)
nani

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 7:00 pm · Reply

“Mainly, they are seeing “hell, I bought AAPL at 40 and it had doubled but I better sell while I still have a 50% gain!”"

That would be a 100% gain. A 50% gain would be when the stock was at 60. A gain is based on the increase over the original investment.

An investment of $40 that yields a $40 profit is a 100% gain.
MacDude

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 7:08 pm · Reply

They ARE RIGHT!!

Who the heck wants a slow Intel based Mac anyway?

I mean lets face it, Apple is dropping Firewire, there is pratcially no Mactel based software yet and then it’s going to run on lame ass 32 bit processors with a 4 GB RAM cap.

This is the absolute worst time to buy a Mac and nobody is going to spend big bucks because software is part of the equation.

Adobe just took a giant CRAP on the entire Mac user base by taking a addtional 14 more months (in addtion to the year of the Mactel announcement with x86 based developer machines ready) to come out with a much needed piece of software, Photoshop.

So really Apple’s stock should take a frigging nose dive, the “iPod thing” is wearing off.

We should see Apple coming off their high very soon.

This is the worst time, I can’t beleive all my hardware investment is going into the toilet.

AND THAT’s Not the half of it.

Ever hear of Trusted Computing?

Oh yes kiddies, no more fun, our machines will be snitching to everyone.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trusted_computing
foljs

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 7:10 pm · Reply

Hey, Russell – Adobe said 2007, not later this year.

No, Adobe actually said they will follow their usual 18-24 month cycle. If it falls on the 18th month (as the previous cycle for CS2 did) this means it will be out as of November 2006.
MacDude

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 7:17 pm · Reply

And to continue, nobody is going to like Trusted Computing.

What’s going to happen is it’s going to kill Apple’s sales (and PC ones too)

This is how it works.

Johnny College Kid has $2000 for a Mac, so he buys one. Just to find out that software is locked to the machine so he can’t get pirated versions of Photoshop, Illustrator and other programs he needs to learn on to get a job.

And since getting a college kid interested in computers pretty much sets the personal computing market, because of DRM, there is no exposure to new software.

Only buisness will know of such software and buisnesses like to keep secrets, bye bye free exposure for Photoshop etc.

Bye Bye Apple personal computing sales.

DRM will screw Apple royally.
shipwithsails

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 7:28 pm · Reply

true the stock price is falling but also look at the volume. It is still huge and for every share sold there is a share bought so someone is buying in at this price and everyone of them expect a good return from where they bought it. the market is a bit flakey right now because of poor overall economy, government debt, foreign trade deficit, oil prices etc. Apple made a great run up over the last year, on Wall Street that is all but impossible to maintain. If a stock can make 10% gain continuously that actually is very good. Apple is only correcting itself to make up for the greater than 100% gains made plus its still too high P/E. I figure it to drop to $60 maybe as soon as this week, after that it will fluctuate a bit until April when new devices are out and the Intel Mac laptops are shipping and some more software is available and Wall Streets valium wears off
SONY

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 7:38 pm · Reply

If everyone is saying its a ” buying oppurtunity” that means there are alot of people in it who thinking the same way, also known as “short term buyers” which means there is still more to go.. ( down )
MCCFR

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 7:44 pm · Reply

MacDude:

I’ll make you a few sportsman’s bets (i.e. one without any money).

Bet One:

That – before the end of the year – Apple will have released a pro notebook (and most likely an iMac as well) based Intel’s Merom mobile chip. Merom is the successor to Yonah and is 64-bit capable. I’ll extend the bet to state that – because it will have had more time in the design lab – it will have all the ports on the current 17″.

Bet Two:

Adobe applications are (for the most part) pro apps. And whilst the MacBook Pro is a pro machine, it’s existence owes far more to Apple wanting to demonstrate a “proof-of-concept” Intel-based laptop to both the Apple faithful (who were, rightly, becoming disenchanted with the kludged G4 architecture) and to the wider world.

My point here is that the critical path for Adobe’s CS range to be available as a UB is actually based on the availability of professional Intel-based Macintosh systems, and the bet here is that the “real” pro systems (Merom-based notebooks and Conroe-based desktops) won’t surface until around Week 36-40 (start of September to start of October).

Bet Three:

That the short-term lack of Adobe pro software (in the gap between Week 36 and what I suspect will be an announcement at Macworld SF 2007) will actually work in Apple’s favour.

The reasoning behind this is pretty simple: Apple will actually benefit from phased demand – video and audio professionals who are now committed to Final Cut Studio, Shake et al (due to be UB by the mid-summer) will absorb the initial release of Merom/Conroe systems, which will give Apple the time to ramp up production in time for the demands of the wider D&P market.

Now whichever one of us is more wrong has to come back here the day Apple reports Q2/2007 (around the second Wednesday in April, by my reckoning) and leave a message in every thread that day stating that they are a doofus who really should be shovelling fries at McDonalds instead of wasting valuable electrons on the screens of people who may be short of time.
SONY

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 7:49 pm · Reply

In Macworld ( recent one) Steve Jobs made a joke and said ” Photoshop always takes a minute to load ”

Which means he #1 Wants Adobe to start making optimized software for their Imacs.

and #2 Steve Jobs wants to release Applications that can be seen as Alternative to Photoshop and Dreamweaver.

Indeed “iweb” seems like a pretty little tool, it is not ready for professionals however it is the evolution, sooner or later Apple might release something better.
Evil_MS_User

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 8:01 pm · Reply

“Wall Street = bunch of old women who can’t operate a remote control, and still think that you can’t record to DVD”

How misguided. Look, I work in NYC and I can tell you that all those traders are _very_ young and _very_ tech-savvy. Those people are Sharks with a capital S. They just LOVE reaming retail investors.

As I mentioned in another thread – just BONUSES alone in Wall St. totaled USD21.5 Billion in 2005. That’s BILLION. If they’re a bunch of old women I want to age 30 years and have a sex-change operation.

Try doing some research on just HOW these people make money. Buying on margin, short-selling, manipulating “analyst” reports (sheesh – I wouldn’t trust a Wall St. “analyst” in a toy store), etc. – the list goes on and on.
G Spank

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 8:10 pm · Reply

can I add a bet?

bet #4: iPod sales are FAR from over. Next Christmas will be equal to this years Christmas in sales.
Macs King

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 8:12 pm · Reply

Gloom and doom. Bah humbug!

Most analysts thought Apple gave overly conservative guidance for this quarter, but, that guidance points towards the second most profitable quarter in the companys history (which was last quarter).

If you all dump your stock because you think it’s going to $50 or $60 you’ll sure help push it there.

Pity the poor guy who won’t be able to bootleg his software any more or who’s hardware investment is going up in smoke. Like buying a computer is ever a good investment.

When I was attending college in the early 90′s I BOUGHT educational versions of software by Adobe at trememdous discounts. Serious students don’t have to steal their software.

It is a tough time to be a Mac buyer right now. I’d love to buy a Quad but I’m concerned about the long term prospects for software support. PowerPC based equipment is going to be left in the dust.

On the other hand it is a good time to buy software for PowerPC machines if you have a stable of them. We’re looking at adding several seats of Pro PowerPC apps because we can upgrade them in the future when the MacIntel versions happen and we’ll have the latest versions for PowerPC to run on our existing hardware.

Using computers is not cheap but it can be fun. I know there are some more clever things coming from Cupertino in the not too distant future. Meanwhile, I’m eyeing some AAPL shares to buy.
DCchesterUK

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 8:30 pm · Reply

MCCFR
nice one
MacDude
So really Apple’s stock should take a frigging nose dive, the “iPod thing” is wearing off.
Sorry, iPod sales have just started, they will top 100 million by the end of the year.
This stock will double and split, look at the pipeline, apple will blow the home apart by the end of the year.
Dummies

Monday, February 6, 2006 - 8:33 pm · Reply

The slowness of the Apps has nothing to do with the Macs. Get over it