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Five things that will happen with Apple in 2006 – and five others that won’t

Thursday, December 29, 2005 · 11:08 am · 47 Comments

“Will 2006 match up to 2005 for interest generating Mac news? The notion seems unlikely unless Apple switches to vacuum tubes instead of Intel chips and releases a $99 dollar iMac. On the other hand, people love to get worked up by any snippet of Apple news (if Steve Jobs were to wear a dark gray shirt at a MacWorld the ‘net would light up like a Christmas tree soaked in pure grain alcohol) so there will still be plenty of things going on to keep people’s attention focused on Cupertino. In other words: Apple is interesting even when nothing is actually happening,” Chris Seibold writes for Apple Matters. “So, what will and won’t happen in 2006?”

Seibold’s Five Things That Will Happen:
1. iBooks show up sans FireWire
2. Apple Movie Store
3. Everything but Xserve powered by Intel
4. Apple Branded PVR
5. A true video iPod

Seibold’s Five Things That Won’t Happen:
1. The Apple phone
2. Mass pirating of Mac OS X
3. Apple getting over ten percent of the computing market
4. A trouble-free initial release of new Intel Macs
5. Much lower Mac prices

Full article here.

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Related article:
2006 predictions abound for Apple Computer – December 27, 2005

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Comment Feed

47 Comments

1 2 3 Next »

Sharris

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:20 pm · Reply

What does he mean “a true video iPod?”
hammer

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:23 pm · Reply

Im saving this article and we’ll see beacuse i think he’s wrong in both lists.

Here’s my top three things that will and won’t happen to Apple

Will happen
1. Apple will make some money
2. Apple will open another retail store
3. Steve will wear a black turtleneck

Won’t happen
1. Apple inventing a time machine
2. Apple buys Microsoft
3. Apple goes back to Os9

see, I can do it too.
John

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:23 pm · Reply

Why not 10%? How many macs need to be sold to get this anyway?
MacDuh

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:27 pm · Reply

While the Mac comes close, there is no such thing as a trouble-free computer, so #4 on what won’t happen is a no brainer.

As far as low cost Macs, what the heck does “much lower” mean? I guess I am going for lower, not much lower. I don’t think they’ll sell anything as cheap as a Dell any time soon because Macs have more value included out of the box (software).
Bilbo Faggins

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:27 pm · Reply

Sharris,

The current iPod is just a regular iPod that happens to do video. There aren’t distinct video specific controls and features. Steve Jobs has even said this isn’t the “iPod video” it’s just the iPod and what the author meant was that a more fleshed out video feature set will probably debut next year with new iPod revisions.
John

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:28 pm · Reply

“Video iPod” not a “iPod with Video” Remember how Steve marketed the iPod with Video- he spoke of the music as a core feature and added that it can do video as well. There wasn’t much emphasis on the Video portion. It is being marketed as a testing ground for video.

Many, including myself, don’t see this as a video iPod. There are better, much better things to come.
igads

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:29 pm · Reply

Sense the percent is based on “new” sales only…they don’t need to sale much if any more than they do now. All that is needed is for idiots to stop buying new PC’s. There is a sucker made every day.
MacDude

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:30 pm · Reply

True video iPod?

What? bigger screen? Longer battery life?

Weighs a ton? What?

A video iPod is just a iPod music player that happens to play video as a extra feature.

What a viPod is good for is on the go training videos.

First the pr0n of course.
Steve Jobs

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:33 pm · Reply

He forgot:

“Apple buys Adobe, crushes Microsoft.”

You decide which list…

Bozo…

SJ
matthias Rönsberg

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:34 pm · Reply

@ john
while we mac users prefer installed base (because macs live longer), most statistics are referring to sold units:
afaik the number of macs sold last year meant some 4% US market share (worldwide much lower)
see:
http://www.macobserver.com/article/2005/10/17.16.shtml
therefore, in order to reach 10%, apple would have to sell at least 150% more units to reach that goal in the US, worldwide probably 250% more units. improbable, to say the least

Matt
MacMDStudent

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:34 pm · Reply

I don’t think the iBook will show up sans firewire because that would make it hard to get videos into iMovie and iDVD as they use FW so firewire sticking around for a bit
Sharrs

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:37 pm · Reply

Cool, it would be smart to have a better video iPod, maybe a bigger screen?

Not too soon though as I just bought the 5g!
loki capret

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:45 pm · Reply

Why does everyone think that because the iPod no longer supports FireWire, that Apple is going to drop support for it on their computers?!?! Dropping support on the iPod allows for more streamlined designs, more universal accessibility and lower production costs! The iPod has nothing to do with future laptop or desktop port configurations (unless there is a dock included directly on a machine).
There are far too many FW peripherals for Apple to drop it on ANY of their OS X based machines! Get over it, all of you “tech writers”! Apple isn’t going to stop supporting 30″ cinema displays because the iPod has such a small screen, either, you dumb asses.

loki
Santa

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:46 pm · Reply

#3 on what will: I think there will still some form of high end Macs including Xserve using the dual core IBM chips, keeping both Intel and IBM in the Apple lineup
pr

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:47 pm · Reply

The current chip that powers video is limited to the 320 x 240 resolution it can display (though firmware could potentially increase it by one step)…The problem is not the chip however…though that is the obvious next step. It’s in the DOWNLOAD speed and file size. It still takes a very long time to download large files even with broadband. Imagine trying to download a multi-gig movie? That’s why it’s more likely that movies will be ‘streamed on demand’ with an on board caching scheme that will permit seamless viewing but WON’T be available on the iPod. Short form and lower resolution entertainment such as TV shows yes…but movies will only be available for viewing through the Apple PVR setup. They won’t be STORED on your machine completely. Of course handbrake and other compression tools will be out there to allow you to convert DVD’s to Ipod format…so movies will be on Ipods (hell they are now!)…but NOT through the ITMS in high rez.
MacDoctor

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 12:49 pm · Reply

I look for PowerBooks and iBooks to show up sans a phone modem, with Airport and Bluetooth standard.
As for Apple cracking the 10 percent mark, that would depend if the Company advertises at the pace of its competitors (Dell, Gateway, HP, ect.)
Queezzie

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 1:03 pm · Reply

I predict there will be lots of comparisons between the performance of a Mactel and a PCtel. If high end software (games, video, graphics) are slower via the Apple (because of Quartz?), watch out for lots of excuse making on the part of Apple. (“But our battery life is 1/2 hour longer” or “Ours looks cooler!”)
If software runs lots faster on Mactels watch lots of people start switching to Macs.
Ampar

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 1:09 pm · Reply

Probably won’t happen:
1. Apple switches to BeOS. Gassee lights up like a Christmas tree soaked in pure grain alcohol.
2. Apple buys the rights to Microsoft Bob.
3. Apple switches back to ADB, SCSI and NuBus.
4. New iMacs are dubbed the iMac Performa Edition.
5. Tevanian steps down to sing “Avie Maria” on tour and Torvalds moves in.
6. Phil Schiller says nothing.
7. Dashboard is dumped for something new called Dingle Balls.
8. Microsoft apologizes for everything.
9. Apple decides to ship Hawaiian meat instead of iPods.
10. A new Mexico judge declares that David Letterman has his own RDF. Jobs smiles and nods knowingly.

MW: fact
Big Al

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 1:14 pm · Reply

If Apple is making a PVR then a source for higher res content is not a problem.

A higher res vPod is a no brainer. However. it would have to play DRM’ed content that the PVR created, otherwise Apple would kiss goodbye to any movie store.

2006, the year of DRM. The year DRM moves inside your computer, not just inside your iTMS purchases.
W Baker

Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 1:14 pm · Reply

Since this ubiquitous New Year’s list seems to open the discussion to all things Apple, I have one question. Why is the Apple world so obsessed with advertising OS X/Mac computer? And why is the fan base so smitten with market share?

The costs of advertising are obviously passed on to the consumer, and I personally don’t won’t to pay Madison Avenue with every Apple purchase I make. I’d rather see a someone in Ives’ department or someone on the software team put a few extra dollars in his wallet than the smarmy PR types in the advertising industry.

Secondly, Apple is a very tightly integrated company. It’s *generally* very responsive to technology and its consumers. Why would anyone, in this day and age of slapping a sticker and chip onto a flash memory device and calling it mp3 player, for instance, want a company oblivious to details and customer support?

Just my two cents. Flame on.