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27 Comments

1. 

   R

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 12:55 pm · Reply

   Needs morew cowbell. And hairy man butt.

2. 

   me

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:12 pm · Reply

   This is really BELOW my expectation as a consumer. I do NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT want multiple formats! I don’t want WMA and Fairplay music (I don’t even want MP3 and AAC or MPG and AVI files!) and I don’t want Blue-Ray and HD-DVD! I want to buy a movie and know it will play in my player. I don’t want to have two players and I don’t want two libraries of movies. I’m not investing my money on either side of a 21st century Beta/VHS war. Call “me” when it’s over!

3. 

   It's over

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:20 pm · Reply

   PS3: Blu Ray
   X-Box 360: nothing

   Even Microsoft isn’t fully behind HD-DVD.

4. 

   the future

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:23 pm · Reply

   300 GB Maxell holographic discs.

5. 

   The Other Steve

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:30 pm · Reply

   Unlike Betamax vs. VHS, both Blu-ray and HD DVD disks are the same physical size and a reader can easily accommodate both formats. There will be an additional cost (you know, that cost that Microsoft is claiming they are trying to save us) but it will happen, just like readers can now read CD’s and DVD’s.
   If Microsoft continues to push their format that includes their software we won’t have a choice. The other format will succeed because the public wants it.

6. 

   gorufo

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:43 pm · Reply

   Blueray may be more technological, but it also has Sony behind it, makers of Copyright rootkits.

   I have no doubt you will NOT be able to back up BDs to your hard drive.

   HD-DVD will likely have more flexibility… only because it’s not from Sony.

7. 

   JBR

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:45 pm · Reply

   That’s why I’m holding out for a PS3 and I’m not getting caught up in the current Xbox 360 hype.

8. 

   Macaday

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:51 pm · Reply

   It may not be either one of them if THIS comes to be in 2006 as they say it will:

   Holographic memory discs hold 60 times – 300GB – and read and write 10 times faster. Developed by InPhase of Colorado and Hitachi Maxell.

   http://www.inphase-technologies.com/

9. 

   Shadowself

   Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:57 pm · Reply

   “It’s over”
   Microsoft has stated the XBox 360 will ship with HD DVD drives in the late second half of 2006. Expect an “updated” XBox 360 about a year from now with enhanced specs and a built in HD DVD drive (unless that format folds between now and then — which I doubt will happen).

   “me”
   What do you care if there are 100 different formats IF your system plays them all? Software included with a Mac plays many more audio formats than most people even know exist, yet they play 99% of the audio most people ever try to play. The same was eventually true for DVDs. Eventually players/burners embraced both the + and – formats and even the dual layer formats. When you buy a Mac with the latest and greatest DVD drive in it you don’t even have to care what type of DVD you put into it. {{It’s interesting to note that Apple calls this a superdrive while us old timers remember the original superdrive was one that supported all the 3.5 inch floppy formats and was driven by the “SWIM” [Super Wozniak Integrated Machine] chip. And for the sticklers: Yes, it read 400k disks but did not write to them.}} The same will eventually be true for the next generation optical systems (HD DVD or Blu-ray Disk). Players and burners will support both if there is not a clear winner in the format wars.

   “The Other Steve”
   Don’t count out Microsoft’s backroom arm twisting. They are behind HP’s recent demands that Blu-ray Disk support Microsoft’s control software. BD has standardized on Java for its control software. HD DVD has standardized on Microsoft’s software.

   Originally HP was firmly behind the Java implementation on Blu-Ray Disk — to the extent that after Microsoft’s announcement that it was supporting HD DVD and NOT Blu-ray Disk HP and Dell made very public statements that the Blu-ray Disk implementation was significantly better than HD DVD’s implementation.

   Since that time HP has partially changed its stance. They now are demanding Blu-ray Disk support Microsoft’s control software. HP is even threatening (quietly and definitely not at the ultimatum stage yet) to pull its support for Blu-ray Disk if Blu-ray Disk does not add support for Microsoft’s control software.

   Microsoft has been lobbying HP to effect this change of heart. Expect Microsoft to be out there doing the same with the other Blu-ray Disk supporters too.

   Don’t expect “the other format” to win because people don’t want MS software on their disks. It is very possible MS software will end up on both formats.

10. 

    The MacDaddy-Oh!

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 1:58 pm · Reply

    I wish they would hurry up! I’ve got a HD projector that has a beautiful image and I would love to see some movies in HD!

11. 

    i wonder

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 2:00 pm · Reply

    Does this mean that we should all support HD DVD since MDN and its 1.2 million unique users (bla bla bla “me too” Bla bla!) are still boycotting SONY?

    GO HD DVD.. err I think?

12. 

    It's over

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 2:07 pm · Reply

    Shadowself: exactly. MS plans to be late with HD-DVD–that way they can back out entirely if they choose.

    Good call, if you ask me.

    Re Sony: we should boycott their fake music discs. Not the Playstation. Let them do what they’re good at.

    Anyone who thinks ANY of these movies will be easy to pirate is deluded. And anyone who thinks just because Sony is ONE of the BD supporters, that it will have more DRM than Microsoft… has another thing coming.

13. 

    Odyssey67

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 3:07 pm · Reply

    Something to think about:

    Cost questions dog Blu-ray DVD’s lead
    By John Borland
    CNET News.com
    November 28, 2005
    http://news.com.com/Cost+questions+dog+Blu-ray+DVDs+lead/2100-1025_3-5969815.html?tag=nefd.pop

    “[A] senior executive at a major disc replication facility said he has long been worried about Blu-ray costs. “We feel that some of the (Blu-ray backers’) statements are setting unrealistic cost and price expectations for the content owners they are courting,” said the executive, who asked to remain anonymous owing to a close working relationship with Blu-ray companies. “They’re right at the zero point in terms of operational knowledge.”

    … The disc manufacturing executive critical of Blu-ray said his company’s production test lines showed that Blu-ray production was far less efficient than HD DVD. Component costs, for example, are higher because they use different materials than DVDs, including a high-tech film layer currently produced only by Sony. “The difference is significant,” the executive said. “Those are real costs. I don’t think the price will ever equalize.”

    Every company that is backing BluRay to the hilt – maybe even Apple – are going to take a very wet bath because of that committment. HD-DVD will be substantially cheaper for the consumer, and once that becomes apparent, that will be ‘all she wrote’.

    But costs aren’t the only reason – opticla disks formats like this are on their way out, much sooner than most people think. Like many, I always assumed high capacity flash memory would be the next ‘big thing’, but recent reports (that MDN refuses to link to) are buzzing about another, more promising alternative.

    Check it:

    300GB disc set to challenge DVD
    Holographics enters the mainstream
    Ken Young
    vnunet.com
    25 Nov 2005
    http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2146751/300-gb-disc-set-challenge-dvd

    “A computer disc about the size of a DVD that can hold 60 times more data will go on sale in 2006, according to its American developer InPhase Technologies, a Lucent spin off. The discs, holding 300GB each, use so-called Tapestry holographic memory technology to store data by interference of light. They are also able to read and write data at 10 times the speed of a normal DVD.

    … Tapestry can store more than 26 hours of broadcast-quality high-definition video on a single 300GB disk, recorded at a data rate of 160Mbps. The discs are 13cm in diameter and a little wider and thicker than conventional DVDs.”

    Here’s another:

    Maxell focuses on holographic storage
    By Colin Barker
    CNET News.com
    November 28, 2005
    http://news.com.com/Maxell+focuses+on+holographic+storage/2100-1015_3-5973868.html?tag=nefd.pop

    “Information storage media company Maxell has said it will launch its first holographic storage products in September 2006. The first removable drive will have a capacity of 300GB and a throughput of 160mbps.”

    The costs for these holgraphic disks are going to be astronomically high at first, but soon – say within 5 years or so – they will be no more expensive than BluRay, and with performance and capacity specs that those disks will never match.

    So why spend all the money on BluRay, when HD-DVD will be just as good for around the same 5 year timeframe, and much cheaper to boot, after which we’ll be transitioning YET AGAIN to another format.

    Makes no sense.

14. 

    BD Man

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 3:24 pm · Reply

    I totaly agree with Shadowself. I can’t understand why Sony and the BD team stop waht M$ in its strategy is trying to do. I choose what tecnology suplyer I want, it’s APPLE. Please make me free of microsoft I hate it. I want to be free to choose. I don’t want the capital imperialism of microsoft.

15. 

    Odyssey67

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 3:34 pm · Reply

    Here’s another weird twist in all this – Sony now DOESN’T want to use Apple’s advanced H.264 codec for BluRay disks! They want to use plain old MPEG2, and – like the proverbial 800lb gorilla – apparently this decision will influence what the studios will back (again).

    One guess as to why … basically, Sony is trying to leverage their 25GB advantage to the hilt. If the studios back off of H.264, then the 15GB of the entry-level HD-DVD disks actually turn out to be as skimpy as Sony wants everyone to think they are. With H.264, there is no qualitative advantage to speak of.

    Don’t believe? Warner – a backer of Bluray – has been doing the rational thing and taken a cold hard look at the manufacturing costs of Sony’s baby. Suitably ‘scared straight’ they are now advancing the proposition of making a ‘hybrid’ BluRay disk. I’m not sure how this would work, but apparently they can utilize some DVD techniques to make a 9GB BluRay spec’d disk. This lowers costs for them, and – with H.264 – still allows high def content to be put on the disk. Unfortunately, if Warner does this, Sony – in addition to losing some per/disk revenue – looks like a big fat lier about how ‘anemic’ the 15GB HD-DVD disks are. So by forcing everyone to continue to use the inefficient MPEG2 codec, they can make a better case for their 25GB disks, even if they are more expensive.

    If a company has to create this many minefields, and force even their partners to jump through this many hoops, to make their technology ‘win’, then it seems to me that their technology, most likely, actually SUCKS.

    BTW – don’t take my word for it. Here’s the story (again, I doubt MDN will carry it):

    New high-definition DVDs to use old video technology?
    By John Borland
    CNET News.com
    November 29, 2005
    http://news.com.com/New+high-definition+DVDs+to+use+old+video+technology/2100-1025_3-5974348.html?tag=nefd.lede

    “Companies such as Microsoft and Apple Computer have been betting that their work on advanced video software formats, called “codecs,” will help them sell their own products.” … Last week, studio giant Sony Pictures quietly voted for “none of the above,” and took a swipe at the new codec formats. The new advanced codecs aren’t immediately necessary for discs released in Sony’s high-capacity Blu-ray format, Sony Pictures executives said in an interview with CNET News.com, and the studio would instead use the 11-year-old MPEG-2 video codec used on today’s DVDs… [T]he studios’ decisions could mean a great deal to companies that have invested heavily in creating or supporting the new video technologies… The new, advanced codecs are much better than MPEG-2 at squeezing high-quality pictures into small packages…
    The studio’s decision represents a setback for the advanced codecs and their backers–an even greater one if other studios such as Disney, Paramount or Universal Pictures decide to follow Sony’s lead, as some industry insiders predict… Representatives for Warner Bros. and 20th Century Fox said they were planning to use the new formats… Warner has agreed to release movies in Sony’s Blu-ray format next year, and plans to use a modified disc that is actually constructed more like an old DVD and is cheaper to produce, holding about 9GB instead of the standard 25GB disc that Sony Pictures and other studios will use. Translation: That could mean cheaper prices for consumers, if the savings in manufacturing costs are passed along… Insiders … say they expect most of Hollywood to move to the advanced codecs over time, … as studios adapt to the new production tools, and start putting even more high-definition content on discs to set them apart from their DVD predecessors.

    But Sony Pictures made it clear that day is still a ways off.”

    Beautiful.

16. 

    Shadowself

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 3:40 pm · Reply

    Odyssey67,

    I guess you and I will have to just agree to disagree on the impact of any cost delta with regard to the cost of producing an HD DVD versus a Blu-ray Disk. My position is that the media companies are going to charge enough in the early period of either format that the cost delta will only amount to a small percentage of the total cost (like when DVDs first came out, the actual production cost of the disk itself was only a very small fraction of the total price). You believe the cost delta will be a significant factor and even a deciding factor. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

    With regard to the holographic media: There are two major issues as I see them.

    1) Holographic data storage has always been “coming soon”. Back when I was a “lab rat” many years ago (going on three decades ago) I worked with a team that was doing holographic data storage research. The lead on the team repeatedly said holographic data storage will be available “in a few years”. I have known of several teams working on holographic data storage since then. All of them have given me the “coming soon” story. I’m taking the attitude: “I’ll believe it when I see a product shipping commercially to the general public, i.e., when it’s on the shelf at the local computer store.” I don’t expect that to be before mid 2007 at the earliest — and considering the history of this medium it might not ever happen.

    2) There are two completely incompatible competing camps just like the two camps of HD DVD and Blu-ray Disk. (There may be more than two, but I’ve only been paying attention to two.) I don’t expect the two camps to get their acts together and form one standard any more than HD DVD and Blu-ray Disk have done.

17. 

    Odyssey67

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 3:43 pm · Reply

    Shadowself,

    Shut up.

18. 

    Odyssey67

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 3:44 pm · Reply

    I talk alot to make up for the short commings!

19. 

    The REAL Odyssey67

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 3:53 pm · Reply

    shadowself – I didn’t write the previous two posts.

    Apparently we have a joker in the deck.

    Nonetheless, we can agree to disagree. I think Warners actions prove pretty definitively that BluRay is way too costly, but we’ll only know for sure once both disks are on the market. I also find it telling that Sony’s doing everything possible to see that DOESN’T happen, so I take that to indicate further that the cost issues truly do not favor them.

    As for the ‘holo-discs’ – I’m sure it’s been a difficult gestation, but usually when a technology gets this much industry buzz, especially in so many media outlets, there’s something coming sooner rather than later.

    Oh, and a message to the joker trying to take over my identity:

    I’m flattered that you secretly want to be like me, but seriously dude – get a life.
    

20. 

    emaN

    Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 4:14 pm · Reply

    The REAL Odyssey67 said:
    “Oh, and a message to the joker trying to take over my identity:

    I’m flattered that you secretly want to be like me, but seriously dude – get a life.”

    I would like to add the following statement:
    Get a spell checker while you’re at it.

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