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Analyst predicts Apple-branded ‘iPhone’ with iTunes and terabyte iPod within five years

Friday, November 11, 2005 · 11:29 am · 25 Comments

“Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray maintained an ‘outperform’ rating on Apple Computer and raised his price target on the company in anticipation of continued iPod and Mac innovations and a possible “iPhone” in the next 12 to 18 months,” Maya Roney reports for Forbes. “Munster expects Apple to enhance media center features in Macs, and incorporate its recently released Front Row technology into the Mac Mini. Munster also predicted the launch of an Apple-branded ‘iPhone’ with iTunes capabilites, and, five years down the line, a terabyte iPod that will offer massive storage and wireless capabilities and become a ‘portable coffee-table media center.’” He raised the price target to $68 from $60.

Full article here.

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Comment Feed

25 Comments

Guessing

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 12:39 pm · Reply

I want whatever this guy and Shaw Wu smoke.

MW: little. Whatever the analyst says matters little.
Shadowself

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 12:43 pm · Reply

Terabyte iPod in 5 years is just plain silly.

We MIGHT have terabyte laptops in 5 years using 2.5 inch drives.

We will not have sub one inch drives in the terabyte range in five years. That would take a HUGE breakthrough in hard drive technology. A terabyte of flash memory is even further away — at least in any way an average person could afford.

MW: far… as in this scale of hard drive or memory is FAR into the future (maybe 10 years)
Jimbo von Winskinheimer

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 12:48 pm · Reply

These far-off predictions are always laughable. Just like Bill Gates, the predictor sounds as though he is “forward thinking”, etc. because they dare to predict the unthinkable well in advance.

No one ever goes back and looks at those predictions and says, “Gee Bill, you predicted that by 2005 that computers would no longer come equipped with keyboards because everyone would be using speech recognition.” So, these predictions are all worth…nothing!

In 5 years, come back to this story and see if the analyst is even employed anymore. I *predict* that he’ll be working at Burger King.
Ampar

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 12:54 pm · Reply

Re: Terabyte iPod

“Whaddya have on that there tPod?”

“Not much really. Let’s see. I’ve got Pi to 51,539,600,000 digits, every volume from the Library of Congress, my genetic code, a map of every star ever indexed, the IMDB along with a copy of every movie, and, hmmm, oh yeah, a couple hundred tunes when I want to chill out.”
macbones

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 1:00 pm · Reply

hmmm. 5 years ago 13 GB was a big hard drive, no?
Macaday

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 1:02 pm · Reply

Just as the Victorians agreed amongst themselves:

“Everything that can be invented has been invented”.

I’ll put an outside bet on this as the odds you guys will give me must be pretty large!
hammer

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 1:05 pm · Reply

Jeepers, a frickin TERABYTE!?!?! My G5 doesnt even have that much storage. Video sure does suck up a lot of disk space though.
MCCFR

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 1:18 pm · Reply

The switch to perpendicular technology will certainly allow Apple and others to pack some serious capacity into portable devices in the future, even based on the 1.8″ mechanism.

I seem to remember that when I first read about perpendicular, they were saying that it was good for an order of magnitude over longitudinal technology, which would mean a 600GB iPod without a stretch.

Even if they get to half of that, 300GB would be more than enough for most people given that the battery is going to want to be connected to the mothership after about four-six hours of constant use.
G Spank

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 1:25 pm · Reply

I, for one, would get an Apple cell phone in a heartbeat.
Chunky Monkey

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 1:29 pm · Reply

Terabyte! Wow, if that’ll be in an iPod form factor within five years . . .

can you imagine the capacity Spock’s tricorder must’ve had???
Brian Allen

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 1:45 pm · Reply

terabyte is easy to see in five years

because size doubles every 18 months

2 yrs 4 yrs 5.5 yrs
80 -> 160 -> 320 -> 640 -> 1280 -> 2560
Jimmi

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 2:06 pm · Reply

iAgree
Shadowself

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 2:27 pm · Reply

Macbones: no. In 2000 the largest drives available were in the 80-100 GB range. The largest drives available today (in a desktop form factor) are 500 GB. (You can buy 1 TB in a single enclosure, but it’s really two drives as in a RAID configuration.) The industry has been stuck at 500 GB for almost two years.

MCCR: Perpendicular recording methods are barely showing up. This technology will take a while to mature. Similar types of technologies over the past decade have often taken five years or more to move from the first commercial implementation to being the pervasive standard.

The extrapolation from laboratory experiments indicates that once the technology matures it MIGHT be able to allow an increase in areal density of data by as much as a factor of ten. I believe this is an optimistic view. In theory, once the technology matures an iPod might be able to have a 600 GB hard drive in it. However, this is taking an extremely optimistic view. I prefer to be more pragmatic.

Brian Allen: Hard drives do not follow Moore’s law (even in its often mistated form). Yet if the hard drive industry did follow the mistated Moore’s law of doubling every 18 months…
Extrapolating from what’s shipping in iPods…
H2 2005 -> 60 GB
H1 2007 -> 120 GB
H2 2008 -> 240 GB
H1 2010 -> 480 GB
Deadline H2 2010 (in five years) still at 480 GB. Therefore deadline missed.

Yet, let’s optimistically base it on “announced” products…
H2 2005 -> 80 GB
H1 2007 -> 160 GB
H2 2008 -> 320 GB
H1 2010 -> 640 GB
Deadline H2 2010 still at 640 GB. Therefore deadline still missed.

Hard drives have not increased at the rate of doubling in capacity every 18 months over the past five years. I don’t expect them to do that over the next five years either.

Do I hope I’m wrong? Definitely.

I am currently doing the initial concept design for a massive SAN which will ingest over 21 terabytes a day, every day. Even keeping just two weeks worth of data online in hard drives (then spooling it off to robotic tape systems for longer term storage) will require over 330 terabytes of data (once parity bits are added) in hard drive space. Right now the design is based upon one terabyte drives being readily available for a reasonable cost within two years from now. That’s an array of 330+ drives. I’d love to see 4 or 8 terabyte hard drives for a reasonable cost within 5 years time. I’m just not counting on it.
pog

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 2:46 pm · Reply

I just hope that in 5 years time, talking on your iPhone while flying your rocket car is banned! For christ sake’s I’m sitting on 50 gallons of Hydrazine here, watch where you are going!
Ampar

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 3:09 pm · Reply

Re: To Macaday – “Everything that can be invented has been invented”.

That quote is urban legend usually attributed to a Patent Office official in the 1800′s.

http://inventors.about.com/library/lessons/bl_appendix5.htm
Ace

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 3:23 pm · Reply

You guys are guessing they are still going to use platter technology (hard drives). It’s gonna be 100% flash cards by then my friends. 100GB TBA in next few years via flash. 5 years? I could see 500GB. HD is NOT the way to go…. dead technology mon amie.

Remember, there has to be a demand for the sizes to be created. Most people are still struggling with their 60GBs.
Mac ed

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 3:31 pm · Reply

Terabyte iPod!!!!! I WISH!!! In my wet dreams… Apple won’t even do a 80GB. Come on Apple i want to listen to my entire music collection.
Shadowself

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 3:33 pm · Reply

pog: Hydrazine as the propellant for your rocket car? About as likely as a terabyte iPod by 2010. With a maximum specific impulse (the measure of propellant efficiency) of about 240-250 seconds that won’t give you much sustained lift.

Combine that with Nitrogent Tetroxide you get a bit more (and that combination was used in some of the older Titan rockets). However, with pure N204 the hazard is death. With as little as 3 parts per billion exposure the N2O4 can form nitric acid in your lungs. Not something you might like.

Try something like liquid Xenon as a propellant. There exist electric thrusters with specific impulses of over 30,000 seconds which use Xenon and Xenon can be relatively easily stored as a liquid if you keep it below 0 degrees C. And since the efficiency of a thruster is an exponential function of the specific impulse electric Xenon thrusters are MUCH more efficient than those monopropellant hydrazine jobs.

The only problem is to get enough thrust out of the Xenon thrusters you will need many of them and a huge power source (a small nuclear reactor ??) to run them. But, hey, no solution is perfect!

MW: six … as in, remember, your autonav system on your rocket car needs to have at least a six degree of freedom nav model
Ampar

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 3:43 pm · Reply

Hydrazine? No way. Thorazine is the only way to go.
The MacDaddy-Oh!

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 6:02 pm · Reply

Ampar said:

Re: Terabyte iPod

“Whaddya have on that there tPod?”

“Not much really. Let’s see. I’ve got Pi to 51,539,600,000 digits, every volume from the Library of Congress, my genetic code, a map of every star ever indexed, the IMDB along with a copy of every movie, and, hmmm, oh yeah, a couple hundred tunes when I want to chill out.”

That’s freakin’ funny!

Whoever would’ve thunked it?
Ampar

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 7:00 pm · Reply

Thanks, MacDaddy-Oh!

P.S. I magine that the yottabyte iPod will have a conscience.

From Wikipedia:
Human complexity in data storage

How many yottabytes would it take to describe a single human being? Assuming the average adult human is 75 kg (165 pounds), we can determine a rough estimate of how many moles of atoms are in the human body. Since the body is made up of 65% oxygen, 18% carbon, 10% hydrogen, 3% nitrogen, 1.5% calcium, and other elements, one could use a periodic table to show that the average human body contains about 11,800 moles of atoms. If one would commit just 100 bytes of information to store the location, type, and state of every atom contained in the body of a human, it would require roughly 590,000 yottabytes!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yottabyte
gypsy

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 7:03 pm · Reply

Something I (as close as I can) remember over a NYC library annex entrance:

“What the mind can conceive, man can achieve”

Whos to say what can and can’t be accomplished ?
Macaday

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 7:44 pm · Reply

Ampar: I certainly won’t subscribe to anytrhing you point me to in About.com thank you.

It cannot be proven now one way or the other but the Victorian quote about invention has been passed on over the years and its very clever if someone today can say they never said it.

Neither here nor there. The term is now used successfully as an expression of ‘do not try to predict the future…for you are certain to be surprised”. And that statement counts, as much in the 19th century, as the the 20th century as in the 21st year 2005.

Let’s not be too particular and enjoy the spirit. The Victorians were brilliant inventors and we should all take our hats off to them. Certainly we wouldn’t be doing this today if it weren’t for their inventiveness…
Macaday

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 7:50 pm · Reply

Asked before, but Shadowself, we’d really like to know who you are..
get me there SLOWLY

Friday, November 11, 2005 - 8:12 pm · Reply

Hydrazine? Thorazine?

Valium, Prozac