Piper Jaffray today said an update from Apple Computer regarding the company’s iTunes Music Store download totals show potential upside for Apple.

Piper Jaffray said that based on Apple’s iTunes Music Store download information released Thursday, stating that the company had passed the 200 million downloads milestone, the weekly iTunes run rate is about 5.5 million songs per week, up from 3.5 million to 4.0 million in the fiscal fourth quarter ended September.

Piper Jaffray raised its fiscal first-quarter iTunes download estimate to 68.5 million from 52.1 million and said that downloads could reach 474 million in calendar 2005, compared with the firm’s current estimate for 256 million.

The firm doesn’t expect a significant impact to earnings in calendar 2005 based on potential iTunes outperformance, “but continued growth could provide some earnings leverage as volumes become more significant.” Piper Jaffray maintained an “outperform” rating on Apple with a $100 price target.

Yesterday, The Register’s Tony Smith wrote, “Indulging in a little statistical speculation, we reckon ITMS should hit 500m songs next June, assuming its growth continues at that rate it has through the past 12 months, showing the almost exponential growth it’s shown so far. At this rate, the billion-songs mark will be reached in November/December 2005.”

Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple’s iTunes Music Store downloads pass 200 million songs milestone (with chart) – December 16, 2004